10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Michigan -13.5)

I'll take my chances here with the Wolverines winning by at least two touchdowns at home against the Spartans. I just think people are going to try to convince themselves that because this is a rivalry game Michigan State is the play, but I don't think the Spartans have much of a shot of keeping this close.

I get the Wolverines aren't what we thought they would be this year, but they have been playing much better of late. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Their lone loss was at Penn State and they were a dropped TD pass from taking that to overtime with all the momentum.

Michigan State has played 3 of other top Big Ten teams and have simply not been able to score. They managed just 10 points in a 24 point loss at Ohio State, were shutout in a 38-0 loss at Wisconsin and 7 at home to the Nittany Lions in a 21-point loss.

Not to mention you got the Spartans off an absolutely gut-wrenching loss at home to Illinois and Michigan is fresh off a bye. Give me the Wolverines -13.5! 

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40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Texas Tech +3) 

I really like the value with the Red Raiders in this one. Texas Tech will be coming into this game with a ton of confidence after going on the road and laying it on the Mountaineers 38-17 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I not only think they cover the 3-point spread at home, but I think there’s a decent chance they win this one going away.

Not only do I think this is an ideal spot to jump on Texas Tech, but I think it’s an even better spot to fade TCU. The Horned Frogs are coming off an absolutely gut-wrenching 29-23 triple-overtime loss at home to undefeated and No. 12 ranked Baylor last week. TCU led the entire way only to see Baylor tie the game in the final seconds on a 51-yard field goal and then had to watch their defense give up 3 touchdowns in OT after they had held the Bears to 3 field goals in regulation.

Simply coming off that loss would have been a challenge. Add in the fact that TCU has a massive game on deck against No. 10 Oklahoma, who every team in the Big 12 has circled on the schedule and I think it will be near impossible for the Horned Frogs to play in Lubbock this Saturday.

Texas Tech quarterback Jett Duffey torched West Virginia’s secondary for 354 yards last week and the Red Raiders as a team come in completing 66% of their pass attempts for an average 309 yards/game. Texas Tech as a whole averages 32.2 ppg. Those stats are important to note given the matchup, as TCU is 2-9 ATS the last 2 seasons when facing an offense that completes 62% or more of their pass attempts and the same 2-9 ATS when facing a team that averages 31 or more points/game.

Horned Frogs have also been a good fade off a loss, as they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a defeat. They are also 2-6 ATS last 8 on the road. Give me Texas Tech +3!

40* NCAAF  PRIME TIME PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UCLA +21.5) 

I'll take my chances here with UCLA covering as a massive 21.5-point dog against the Utes. The Bruins might be just 4-5 overall, but they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Just like they did a year ago, they have greatly improved as the season has worn along. 

Utes are way overvalued right now after winning and covering in each of their last 5 games. The books may have been slow to adjust the number, but they definitely have inflated it here. Just a few weeks ago they were a 21-point favorite at home against Cal and the week before only a 16-point favorite at home against Arizona State. I would take UCLA against both of those teams right now. 

UCLA head coach Chip Kelly has gone 16-5 ATS as a head coach when facing a top tier team that's won more than 75% of their games. Give me the Bruins +21.5! 

40* NCAAF PRIME TIME BOOKIE CRUSHER (Texas A&M -11) 

I'll take my chances here with Texas A&M laying it on the Gamecocks and covering the 11-point spread at home. I just think we got a case here of the Aggies being better than what they are getting credit for and South Carolina still getting a little too much love for their earlier upset win against Georgia. 

The thing is the Gamecocks have just been decimated by injuries and simply don't have the talent to keep this close against Texas A&M. Aggies are 6-3 with their 3 losses coming against Clemson, Auburn and Alabama. We saw them priced similarly in their last home game against Mississippi State and they easily covered as an 11.5-point favorite.

Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS A&M) - good offensive team (390 to 440 YPG) against a team with an average defense (330 to 390 YPG), after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game are 28-6 (82%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me Texas A&M -11! 

50* NCAAF BOUNCE BACK ATS GAME OF THE MONTH(Alabama -17.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with Alabama winning by 20+ on the road against Mississippi State. Much like the Patriots in the NFL, you take the Crimson Tide when they are coming off a loss. With or without Tua, I look for Alabama to lay it on the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State has shown nothing to make you think they can be competitive enough to keep this close. They lost by 19 at Texas A&M, by 23 at home to LSU and by 33 at Auburn. THey also lost by double-digits to Tennessee, which really tells you all you need to know. 

Alabama 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games when listed as a favorite of 14.5 to 21 points and have covered 4 of their last 5 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Give me the Crimson Tide -17.5! 

40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Appalachian State -16.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Appalachian State covering the 16.5-point spread at home against Georgia State. The Mountaineers should have no problem putting up a big number here. The Panthers defense is one of the worst in the country. They are giving up 36.0 ppg and 464 yards/game. 

I just don't see them being able to keep pace offensively with starting quarterback Dan Ellington sidelined with a knee injury. Ellington is what makes the Panthers offense go. He's competed 66% of his attempts with an 18-4 TD-INT ratio, while rushing for 603 yards and 5 scores.

Home underdogs who are allowing 35+ ppg and coming off 2 straight games with 60 or more combined points scored are a mere 30-75 (29%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Give me the Mountaineers -16.5! 

40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Indiana +15) 

I'll take my chances here with the Nittany Lions catching more than two touchdowns at Penn State on Saturday. I feel the public perception is that Penn State is just going to bounce back from their loss at Minnesota, which was their first of the season. It's just not as easy bouncing back from your first loss this late in the season and I'm also not convinced Penn State is as good as people think. They could have easily lost at Iowa a few weeks back and at home to Michigan. 

Add in the biggest game of the season on deck next week against Ohio State and I think it's asking a lot for the Nittany Lions to win here in blowout fashion. Indiana comes in having won 4 straight and while it's been against soft competition, this team shows up ready to give it their all on a weekly basis. They are going to have even more fire coming off their bye. Give me Indiana +15! 

50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Va Tech -5.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Hokies winning by at least a touchdown on the road against the Yellow Jackets. I was dead wrong playing against Virginia Tech last week, but I'm getting some of that money back and some with them this week. The Hokies are so much better right now than they were to start the season it's not funny. 

Georgia Tech just covered on the road against Virginia, but they also lost by 10 at home the previous week to a pretty average Pitt team. More than anything, I just think this is a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets. While they aren't as run heavy as their triple-option days, they still don't offer much in the passing game. That's a problem against this Hokies defense, which is giving up just 86 yards/game on the ground in their last 5. 

Georgia Tech is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS at home this season. Hokies are 29-12 ATS last 41 as a road favorite of 7 or less and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when coming off an upset win over a conference opponent. Give me Virginia Tech -5.5! 

40* NFL VEGAS UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK (Cardinals +10.5) 

I'll take my chances here with Arizona as a double-digit dog against the Cardinals. Whenever you have a big public team like the 49ers coming off a loss after being so good for so long, the public just assumes they are going to bounce back. I just don't see it. The injuries are really starting to pile up for SF. Jimmy G will once again be without his best weapon in tight end George Kittle and there's a good chance he won't have his new toy in Emmanuel Sanders. 49ers also lost a couple of key rotation guys up front on their d-line. Arizona is 6-3 ATS with rookie QB Kyler Murray and have covered 5 of their last 6 overall, including a mere 3-point loss at home to these 49ers a few weeks ago. Give me the Cardinals +10.5! 

50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR(Patriots -4) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Patriots on Sunday. For me it's automatic to take New England coming off a loss and an absolute no-brainer if they are coming off a bye. I expect a big bounce back effort from the Patriots defense. The big reason they struggled with Baltimore in their last game is there's just no defending an elite mobile quarterback like Lamar Jackson. Also, if coming off a loss and a bye wasn't enough to get you to take the Patriots, I got to believe NE wants some revenge against the Eagles after losing to them in the SB a couple years back, as this is the first meetings since that game. Pats are 16-5 ATS last 21 off a loss by 14 or more and 9-2 ATS last 11 on the road after a bye week. Give me New England -4! 

50* NFL AFC SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Ravens -4) 

I don't know that there's a team playing better than the Ravens right now and I while the Texans are coming off of their bye, I don't see Houston being able to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. Keep in mind there's a little extra incentive for Jackson, who certainly hasn't forgot about that heartbreaking loss he suffered in college to Deshaun Watson and Clemson. He will be out to get his revenge on Sunday. Give me Baltimore -4! 

40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS SLAUGHTER (Cowboys -6.5) 

I'll take my chances here with the Cowboys winning by at least a touchdown at Detroit on Sunday. Lions will once again be without Matthew Stafford and will have to start Jeff Driskel. The Lions managed just 13 points against the Bears last week and 7 of those came on a late garbage TD. If Chicago's offense wasn't so awful, they would have won by 20+ and I could see Dallas laying it on them. 

Not a good matchup at all for the Lions. Detroit has no running game and the passing game is now limited with Driskel and will be facing a Cowboys defense that ranks in the top half of the league against the pass. It's not good on the other side. No one has been able to contain Zeke and the Cowboys ground game and the Lions are 28th vs the pass, so it's going to be a real balanced attack for Dak and the Cowboys. Give me Dallas -6.5! 

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE  (Broncos +10.5) 

I see a lot of value here with the Broncos as a double-digit dog against the Vikings. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with the Vikings off their win at Dallas in prime time on Sunday Night Football. Not only that, but Denver’s not a team the public wants a lot to do with right now, so the books are able to inflate the number knowing the public will be on Minnesota no matter what the number is.

I’m not going to sit here and say Denver is a great team, but I do think they are better than their 3-6 record. The Broncos could easily have a winning record, as they got 4 losses by 8 or less, including 3 defeats by a mere 2-points.

In Denver’s last game they gave Brandon Allen his first NFL start in place of the injured Joe Flacco. While they might have been forced into making the switch because of Flacco’s injury, it felt like a move needed to be made. Flacco was playing really bad before getting hurt and it often looked like he didn’t even want to be out there. I think his negative attitude was rubbing off on the entire team and things just weren’t going to get better with him on the field.

I get Allen didn’t light the world on fire in his first start, but he did guide the team to a win over Cleveland and played pretty well in process. More than anything Allen seemed to give a new sense of life to this Denver team and I think it’s going to carry over to this game.

I also like the fact that the Broncos are coming into this game off of their bye. Not only is it big in terms of getting some much-needed rest and getting guys healthy, it also gives the staff some time to work in a little more of the offense with Allen.

The other big thing here is the Denver defense has been playing extremely well all season long. Not a big surprise given the defensive prowess of head coach Vic Fango. In the Broncos last 5 games they are giving up just 74.2 rushing/yards game. They also have the league’s 4th ranked pass defense.

I feel like the best way to slow down this Vikings offense is to take away Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota ground attack. Note that both of the Vikings losses this season have come in games where they failed to rush for 100 yards. I’m not saying Denver will pull off the upset, but I definitely like their chances of keeping it within the number. Give me the Broncos +10.5!