Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick: Duke/Kansas OVER 66

I like the OVER 66 in Saturday's matchup between Kansas and Duke. I see this game easily getting into the 70s. Kansas has seen the OVER cash in each of their first games. The combined for 66 in a 56-10 win over Tennessee Tech in the opener, combined for 97 in a 55-42 OT win at West Virginia (84 points in regulation) and 78 last week in a 48-30 win over Houston. 

Kansas has shockingly transformed into an offensive juggernaut behind one of the best rushing attacks in the country. Jayhawks come in averaging a staggering 260 rushing yards/game and 7.4 yards/carry. They got a dynamic dual threat QB in Jalon Daniels, an experienced and underrated o-line and a plethora of playmakers at the skill position. 

I just don't see Duke being the team that slows them down. The best offense the Blue Devils have seen is Northwestern and they gave up 511 yards to the Huskies. 

Everyone has kind of caught on with the Kansas momentum after their back-to-back upset wins on the road against West Virginia and Houston. Thing is, Duke is also looking like a much improved offensive team. 

As good as David Cutcliffe was in his tenure, his offense had kind of run its course. They brought in new OC Kevin Johns from Memphis to spark that unit. So far, the results are positive. 

Not only has sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard looked great, Duke is averaging 205 rushing yards and 5.9 yards/carry. I think they can attack a leaky Jayhawks defense that gave up 400 yards in each of their two games against the Mountaineers and Cougars. KU has allowed a 67% completion rate and are giving up 7.5 yards/attempt. Leonard has completed 73.6% of his attempts and is averaging 10.6 yards/attempt. 

I got both of these teams easily getting into the 30s and would be shocked if this game didn't eclipse the 70 point mark. Give me the OVER 66! 

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9* NCAAF Smart Money CASH COW: James Madison Dukes +7

I will once again fade Appalachian State and grab the 7-points with James Madison. Last week we backed Troy at +12.5 and the Trojans nearly won outright, losing on a hail mary in the final seconds. 

I faded App State in that game because of the emotional rollercoaster they had been on to start the year. First they lose 61-63 to UNC, scoring 40 points in the 4th quarter to nearly erase a 20-point 4th quarter deficit (missed 2-pt conversion with 9 seconds left). Then they pulled off a massive upset, beating Texas A&M 17-14 on the road. 

I just don't see them having anything left in the tank for this game and they are up against a very talented Dukes team. For those that don't know James Madison made the jump from FCS to the FBS this year. The assumption most have when this happen is they are going to struggle that first year after making the jump. 

I don't think that's the case at all. The Dukes are coming off a 12-2 season in 2021 and have won 9 or more games in 7 of the last 8 seasons. In their opener against Middle Tennessee they beat the Blue Raiders 44-7 as a 5-point favorite, outgaining them 548 to 119 in the process. They then destroyed Norfolk State 63-7. Very similar type of dominating performance to Marshall in their 55-3 win over Norfolk State. 

The other massive factor in this game is the fact that James Madison is coming off a bye week, which means they not only are going to have fresh legs, but have had two full weeks to prepare for this game. A game you know they had circled with how many people had App State picked to win the conference. The Dukes will be out to make a statement that they belong. I give them a real shot here to win this game outright. Give me the James Madison +7. 

8* NCAAF Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE: San Diego State Aztecs +3

I will gladly take the 3-points with San Diego State at home against Toledo. I think this is the perfect spot and price to buy-low on the Aztecs. San Diego State has not been impressive to start the year. They are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. They lost 20-38 as a 6-point favorite at home to Arizona in their opener, beat Idaho State 38-7 as a 32.5-point favorite and then got annihilated 35-7 at Utah as a 22-point dog. 

Thing a lot of people don't realize is they really haven't lost a game they should have won. Yes, they were a favorite against Arizona in their opener, but that Wildcats team was being way undervalued coming into this season. Arizona is easily one of the more improved teams in the country. As for the loss to Utah, what did you really expect. That's a Utes team that a lot of people picked to make the playoffs. 

One thing to note about the poor offensive showing against Utah is they lost starting quarterback Braxton Burmeister in the 1st quarter. (poked in the eye) He didn't return, but head coach Brady Hoke has said he's going to be ready to go for Saturday. 

I just think that given how bad SDSU has looked and Toledo being one of the favorites to win the MAC has the wrong team favored. The Rockets might be the class of the MAC, but the MAC is also the worst conference in the FBS. 

The other huge factor for me is the spot. Toledo's biggest game on their schedule was last week at in-state big brother Ohio State (who they rarely get to play). So even though they got annihilated 71-21, it will be tough for them to bring that same level of energy to this game. Not only that, but keep in mind they are now back on the road and forced to go way out west against a hungry San Diego State. Last time the Rockies traveled to California for a regular-season game was 2018 against Fresno State. A game they lost 27-49 as a 9-point dog. Give me San Diego State +3! 

8* NCAAF Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Kansa State Wildcats +13

My money is on Kansas State to cover as a 13-point road dog against Oklahoma. I think we got a perfect recipe for line value with last week's results for these two teams. On one side you had Kansas State lose 10-17 at home to Tulane as a 13-point favorite, while Oklahoma went on the road and embarrassed Nebraska 49-14 as a mere 10.5-point favorite. 

Anyone that was taking a wait and see approach with Oklahoma after losing head coach Lincoln Riley is now going to be sold that this Sooners team is going to run the table and fight for a playoff spot. I just don't think that's the case. Sure, I thought Nebraska would put up more of a fight in the first game after Scott Frost was fired, but that's not a surprising result to me. 

Maybe I'm wrong and Brent Venables is going to be this great new head coach, but I still think Oklahoma is not on the same level as they were with Riley calling the shots. 

One thing is for sure, that offense of there's will be facing a defense with any kind of a pulse for the first time this year. Kansas State is miles ahead of any team the Sooners have faced on the defensive side of the ball. 

I also think you have to ask yourself how much of the spot played into K-State's poor showing against Tulane. The Wildcats were fresh off a 40-12 win against Missouri against rival Missouri as a 7-point favorite. A game some thought they were to struggle to win. Then they had this massive game against Oklahoma looming on deck. I think it had a big impact. 

I also think you got to look at the track record in this series. K-State has won 2 of the last 3 meetings. One as a 23.5-point dog and the other as a 28-point dog. Two of their last 3 losses to Oklahoma have come by 7 or less and they are responsible for 3 of Oklahoma 6 losses at home in Big 12 play since 2012. Would it really shock you if they won this game outright. Not me. Give me the Wildcats +13! 

10* NCAAF Underdog PLAY OF THE MONTH: Arkansas Razorbacks +2.5

I love the Razorbacks as a 2.5-point dog in their neutral site showdown with the Aggies. For those that don't know, the game is being played at AT&T Stadium (home of the Cowboys). Sure Texas A&M was able to win and cover last week in their huge game against Miami, winning 17-9 as a 6.5-point favorite. They were lucky to do so, as they were outgained 392 to 264. 

There was hope that a switch to QB Max Johnson would spark the offense. It didn't It looked like the exact same offense that let them down in their upset loss at home to App State. If that wasn't a prime time night game under the lights, where that Texas A&M crowd is out of control, I don't know if they beat the Hurricanes. 

They aren't going to have that kind of crowd impact at AT&T Stadium and are playing their toughest challenge to date in Arkansas. I don't know what it is about the Razorbacks, but they just keep staying under the radar. They are now 8-1 in their last 9 games and their only loss was by a mere 7-points at Alabama. They got the best quarterback nobody talks about in KJ Jefferson, who is off to a great start. 

The gap in talent at the quarterback position alone in this game is enough that should have Arkansas favored. I just don't see the Aggies being able to do enough offensively to win this game and say what you want about Alabama looming on the schedule next week for the Razorbacks. They are not looking past this game. Give me Arkansas +2.5! 

9* NCAAF Sharp Money ATS KNOCKOUT: UConn Huskies +39

Yes, I'm taking the 39-points with UConn on the road against NC State. The same UConn team that has lost 14-48 at home to Syracuse (24-pt dog) and 0-59 at Michigan (47.5 pt dog) in their last two games. 

Most will just assume that with NC State sitting there ranked No. 12 in the country, they are just going to be able to name their score in this one. I just don't think that's going to be the case. Wolfpack are 3-0, but they have not impressed me in their two biggest games. They beat ECU 21-20 and the Pirates missed an extra point late, as well as a 42-yard field goal in the final seconds. They did just beat Texas Tech 27-14, were outgained 353-270 by the Red-Raiders. 

The other big factor here is the spot. NC State has their biggest game on their schedule looming next week at Clemson. A game that they probably have to win to have a legit shot at winning the ACC Atlantic. 

They aren't going to be out for style points in this game. Their primary focus is to win and keep everyone healthy. So even if they get up early, it's going to be extremely hard for them to win by 40+ with all their backups playing the entire 2nd half. Give me UConn +39! 

9* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT: Arizona Wildcats +3

I will gladly take 3-points on the road with Arizona at Cal. I'm 1-1 on the Wildcats this year. I won with them in their 38-20 win at San Diego State as a 6.5-point dog. I lost with them in a 17-39 loss at home to Mississippi State as a 10.5-point dog. Looking back I just got a little too greedy with Arizona. Their a team I'm so high on this year and even though they are improved, they aren't quite ready to compete with the big boys. 

Cal is certainly not a big boy. The Golden Bears are 2-1. They were far from impressive in home wins over UC Davis and UNLV to start the year. They did however cover as a 13.5-point dog in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week. 

It's a big deal going on the road and facing the Irish in South Bend. That was easily the biggest game on the schedule for Cal in the first half of their season. Regardless of how that game went, it was going to be tough for the Golden Bears to bounce back with a top tier effort in this game. I think it's even less likely after losing the way they did (led 17-14 going into the 4th). 

There's just nothing I've seen so far that makes me think in differently on Cal, who I didn't think was going to be very good. Golden Bears only returned 8 starters from a team that went 5-7 last year. 

As for Arizona, they were a team I thought was poised to make a massive jump in 2022. Not only were they figuring to be improved in year two under head coach Jedd Fisch, but they brought in a ton of talent via the transfer portal, including nabbing last year's Pac-12 leading passer in quarterback Jayden De Laura. Simply put I think they are the better team and should be favored in this one. Give me Arizona +3! 

8* NCAAF Prime Time ATS SLAUGHTER: Wisconsin Badgers +19

I will take Wisconsin as a 19-point road dog against Ohio State. Nobody is giving the Badgers any shot in this game and I just feel like the line has gotten out of control. I get the Buckeyes came into this season as a consensus playoff pick and they have looked the part in their last two games against Arkansas State (45-12) and Toledo (77-21), but it's like everyone has just completely blocked out their opener against Notre Dame. A game they only won 21-10 as a similarly priced 17-point favorite. 

Wisconsin is a heck of a lot better team than Notre Dame. That's just not the perception people have. A big reason for that is the Badgers shocking 14-17 home loss to Washington State. Yes, they lost, but they were the better team. Wisconsin outgained the Cougars 401 to 253 with a 22-10 edge in first downs. 

I just think if Notre Dame's defense can give this Ohio State offense fits, there's no reason to think the Badgers' defense can't do the same. 

All Ohio State is going to hear going into this game is how good they are and how Wisconsin doesn't have the offense to compete. They kind of mindset is how upsets happen. The Badgers will not only being playing with a chip on their shoulder, but they got nothing to lose here. I could be dead wrong here, but at this price and how big the public is on Ohio State, I got to take the points. Give me the Badgers +19! 

9* NCAAF Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Northern Illinois Huskies +26.5

I really like Northern Illinois to cover as a 26.5-point dog against Kentucky. To me this line doesn't make a lot of sense. In the Wildcats season opener they were a mere 15-point home favorite against Miami (OH). Northern Illinois and Miami (OH) both play in the MAC and the Huskies are the defending MAC champs with 18 returning starters. This line suggest that Northern Illinois would be a double-digit dog on a neutral to Miami (OH). No chance. 

It's also worth noting that while Kentucky won and covered against the RedHawks in a 37-13 win. They needed a last second field goal to go into the half with a 13-10 lead. They then flipped the script with a 100-yard kick return to open the 2nd half. They only outgained Miami (OH) by 63 yards. 

For them to win by 27 or more you would think they need to outgain Northern Illinois by 250+ yards. I just don't see that happening. Northern Illinois is going to fight. There's not many bigger stages for them than playing a Top 10 ranked opponent. 

I'm just not a believer that Kentucky is a Top 10 team and I think this is a bit of a tricky spot for them with a huge game on deck next week at No. 16 Ole Miss. Even if they get up big, they are going to pull their guys and go into conservative mode, which will leave the backdoor wide open. Give me Northern Illinois +26.5! 

10* NCAAF - Big Ten PLAY OF THE MONTH: Michigan State Spartans +3

I love Michigan State as a 3-point home dog against Minnesota. I took it on the chin last week with the Spartans as a 3.5-point dog at Washington. I undervalued the Huskies, especially quarterback Michael Penix. I also gave way to much respect to the Michigan State secondary. I thought it was more improved than it was. 

The good news is that loss has created a good buy low spot with the Spartans. No way should they be a home dog to the Gophers. Minnesota is off to a 3-0 start. Not only have they won all 3 games they have played, they have covered the number. They covered with ease last week as a 28-point favorite against Colorado, winning by a final of 49-7. 

That's not a very good Buffaloes team. Colorado has lost 13-38 at home to TCU and 10-41 at Air Force in their other two games. Minnesota's other two wins are against New Mexico State and Western Illinois. 

I'm not saying the Gophers aren't a good team. I just think they are way overvalued right now and I think it's a bad matchup for them. 

The inability to stop top tier quarterbacks was the downfall of Michigan State in 2021. Clearly it's still a problem. What they haven't struggled to stop is the run. They are allowing just 90 ypg and 2.7 yards/carry. 

The Gophers' Tanner Morgan is a quality quarterback at the college level, but he's not going to carry this team with his arm. Minnesota's offense is built on their running game. They have ran it 50+ times in each of their first 3 games. They will also be handcuffed in the passing game going forward after losing wide out, Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury. Autman-Bell led the team in catches (11), yards (214) and yards/catch (19.5). 

Minnesota's defense looks all world thru 3 games, giving up just 5.7 ppg and 170 ypg, but note the 3 teams they play combine to only average 9.3 ppg and 226 ypg. Gophers haven't even sniffed an offense as good as Michigan State. The defense will be solid, but not this good. They lost a ton up front from last year. I look for the Spartans to be able get the ground game going and pick up some big plays thru the air. Give me Michigan State +3! 

10* NCAAF - Big 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH: Texas Tech Red Raiders +7

I absolutely love getting Texas Tech as a 7-point home dog against Texas. The Longhorns to be are being way overvalued right now. Texas is a public team and any time this team shows they might be back, everyone is so quick to jump on the bandwagon. Their 19-20 loss to Alabama completely flipped the script on the perception of this team. 

Unfortunately for Texas they lost starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, who looked like a real difference maker for this team. No disrespect to backup Hudson Card, but he's a big down grade. Card has attempted 14 more passes (8 more completions) than Ewers and still trail him in yards. I believe it makes them more one-dimensional with the run game. 

They wound up covering as a 13-point favorite with Card under center last week against UTSA, winning 41-20. However, they far from dominated that game. They only outgained the Roadrunners 459-408 and had just 21 first downs to UTSA's 29. 

I just think them winning and covering and then Texas Tech failing to cover as a 10.5-point dog in a 14-27 loss at NC State has created some line value here. Keep in mind the public was all over the Red Raiders as a double-digit dog against NC State. 

The key here is the public only cares about the final result. Texas Tech lost them money. Thing is, they probably shouldn't have. Red Raiders outgained NC State 353 to 270. I've really liked what I've seen out of this team in year one under head coach Joey McGuire. I also loved both their coordinator hires, bringing in Zach Kittley on offense and Tim DeRuyter on defense. 

I also see a very motivated Texas Tech team coming into this game after last year's embarrassing 35-70 loss to Texas, where they trailed 14-42 at the half and 28-63 after 3 quarters. While it's not a night game in Lubbock, Jones AT&T Stadium will be rocking for this game. There's not a game on the schedule the Red Raiders want more than this one and they haven't won in this series since 2017 (only 4 wins since 1999). I think this team is not only capable of making a game of it with Card at quarterback, I think they got a legit shot here to win outright. Give me Texas Tech +7!