MLB Wednesday OVER 10.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox lost yesterday's series opener to the Reds 9 to 8 and games at Fenway Park continue to trend toward being very high-scoring. 13 of last 16 games there have totaled at least 10 runs and these 16 games have averaged 13 runs apiece. We should see 11 runs at least here as the Red Sox and Reds bullpens rank in the middle of the pack. In terms of hitting, Boston is hitting .298 in home games this season which is #1 in the majors. Cincinnati is hitting .265 in road games this season which is #1 in the National League. As for the pitchers here, Luke Weaver is off a strong start but had allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts before that! James Paxton has made only 9 starts since the 2019 season because he has multiple injury issues. He is coming off an ugly outing and really has been quite unreliable since his successful campaign in 2019. Paxton is facing a Reds team that has won 4 straight games and 6 of last 8. In the 4 straight wins, the Reds have averaged 8.5 runs and have now scored 8 or more runs in 5 of last 6 games and overall have averaged 7 runs per game last 8 games. OVER 10.5 in Boston

MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies -115 @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - Nola was really looking sharp and having great command of his pitches and looking like vintage Nola before his most recent start ended up being a tough one. I fully expect him to bounce right back here and he takes on Carrasco who has been struggling. His most recent start was better at Chicago but he had allowed 5 or more earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts before that. So really you have a unique solid situation because you have Nola who had been pitching well but off a tough start and Carraco who had been struggling but is off a strong start. So extra line value here and Phillies off a tight 2-0 loss at New York yesterday so this is a great play on spot for Philadelphia. The Mets had lost 4 of 6 prior to yesterday's win and is 0-3 this season when off a shutout win. The Phillies are 3-1 this season when off a shutout loss. So this is a combined 86% YTD situation in favor of the road team here. PHILADELPHIA -115

Europa League Final Wednesday Free Pick Roma +175 vs Sevilla @ 3 ET - This line almost looks funny really. The fact is Sevilla has more attacking options and comes into this one in better form yet the match is priced as basically a toss up. In my opinion, this translates to solid value with Roma as most are likely to be looking the other way but this club springs the upset. Free Pick ROMA +175

Rotation #224401: Europa League Final Wednesday OVER 2 goals +120 in Sevilla vs Roma in Puskas Arena in Budapest, Hungary @ 3 ET - Yes this is a final and yes both clubs fully capable of being strong defensively and frustrating opponents. However, Sevilla also certainly has plenty of attacking options and this could force Roma to match them. I am looking for an early goal and this match to then play out a little more wide open than most are expecting here. I like the value with the total just 2 goals and +120 available as the comeback price at that total. Roma is known for lower-scoring matches but I fully expect Sevilla to force the issue here and that will make Roma answer them if they want to have a shot in this one. Looking for a 2-1 final as a result here. Note that Roma, in their Serie A action, have seen 7 of last 8 matches total at least 2 goals and those 7 matches averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Sevilla, they consistently have totaled 2 or more goals almost without exception in their matches across all competitions. OVER 2 goals +120 in Europa League Final

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 3:40 ET - This total dropped from a 10 to a 9.5 and I like fading the line moves when other factors line up and that is certainly the case here. The Diamondbacks Zach Davies has not been right this season and is trying to now also come back from an oblique injury and the first start back did not go well at all. He is now 8-18 the past 3 seasons combined and with a high ERA in the 5.00 range these past 3 seasons combined. Davies will not be the only starter likely to struggle here. Note that Connor Seabold has struggled for the Rockies but whether it is him or Chase Anderson I like the over in this one. As per usual, I am going with action on the pitchers and Anderson did have an ugly 1.57 WHIP in the minors before he was called up. I know the journeyman veteran has had some surprising success this season in his limited MLB action in 2023 but he really struggled in the start before his most recent one. That was home against the Marlins and he allowed 8 hits in less than 6 innings and he had 2 walks against just 1 strikeout in that outing. Anderson is due for a regression to the mean and I think that Marlins start is a sign of the reality that is soon on the way for him. Regardless of starting pitchers I like the over here as neither bullpen has been good this season and I expect the hitting to resume like we had seen in Monday's game. OVER 9.5 in Arizona

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +150 @ New York Mets @ 1:10 ET - 3 key angles here. The Phillies have never been swept in a series in the eastern time zone this season. Sweeps are rare to begin with and I don't see Phillies getting swept against division rival Mets. That is where the next couple of key angles comes in actually. Speaking of divisions and rivals, Scherzer use to pitch with Nationals and now is with Mets and so the Phillies see plenty of him and they actually have hit him well in recent meetings. Thirdly, and the other part of this rivalry aspect, Walker use to pitch for the Mets. Now he faces his former team and you know he will be up for this start. The underdog value is tough to pass up here in my opinion. 10* PHILADELPHIA +150

Rotation #202401: German Bundesliga Promotion/Relegation: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV @ 2:45 ET - Hamburger SV trying to get back to Bundesliga 1 after 5-year absence while Stuttgart trying to avoid relegation to Bundesliga 2 after 3 years in the top flight. This is the first leg of two and and I am sure the hosts will be strong here but Hamburger SV was the highest scoring team in Bundesliga 2 this season and I don't see them going away without a fight in this set of two matches with Stuttgart. Note that the visitors also were solid on the road this season and they have averaged 2 goals per match this season. The hosts are not very high-scoring but are at home here and certainly can take advantage of a Hamburger side that does allow quite a few goals particularly on the road. Additionally, the hosts are off a disappointing finish to the regular season and will want to rectify that here with a strong showing on their home pitch after a disappointing draw in their regular season finale as a host. Before that 1-1 disappointment, Stuttgart's last 8 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, the last 3 meetings between these clubs have averaged 5 goals apiece! Hamburger finished the regular season with a 1-0 win but, prior to this, their last 8 matches had averaged 5 goals apiece. OVER 3 +105 in Stuttgart

Rotation #206801: Romania Liga 1 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj vs U Craiova 1948 @ 1:30 ET - CFR Cluj let a 1-0 lead slip away in a frustrating 2-1 loss to Farul in their most recent match and it had their manager furious. That said, and you can tell by the money line of -200 and the goal line of -1, CFR Cluj is expected to respond in a big way here. While I do indeed expect a response from the hosts here in what should be a great atmosphere in Cluj, I am also expected U Craiova 1948 to put up a helluva fight in this one. This is a battle for European football with a shot at the Conference League. That said, U Craiova 1948 is going to battle here and they have averaged scoring 1.6 goals in their last 10 matches. As for CFR Cluj, they have scored 1.7 goals per match last 14 matches. After losing following a 1-0 lead against Farul, I am sure CFR Cluj is going to get a couple goals but I also see U Craiova 1948 being very tough to put away. That means strong odds on at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. As for the last 4 meetings between these clubs, 3 of 4 have totaled at least 4 goals and the 4 matches have averaged 4 goals. More of the same expected Thursday in what should be a very entertaining battle. OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj

NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Miami Heat +9 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - I really like both these teams. Guys who follow me closely know I rode both the Nuggets and Heat heavily in the conference finals. That said, I got the match-up I wanted and I feel we have a solid competitive balance here. Certainly the Nuggets are the stronger overall team and deserve this heavy line generally speaking but Miami is a very good team. Also, this is not a normal situation here either. Rest is a good thing but too much rest can lead to rust. That is an issue here for Denver. There already is a normal automatic layoff between the conference finals and the NBA finals. That said, the fact the Heat / Celtics series went 7 games did not necessarily hurt them entering this series. It could hurt them if this series goes deep but early on it actually is an advantage that Miami could be more game ready here considering the fact that the Nuggets have not played since Monday. No not the Monday of THIS week but the Monday of LAST week. So a weak and a half later Denver is taking the floor again finally for a real game. Nothing compares to real game action no matter how much you practice. So the point is Denver is likely rusty enough that the Heat can take advantage early on in this one. I still think Nuggets find a way to win this one but I do not think they win this by double digits. Grab the big points here. MIAMI +9