MLB Saturday Free Pick OVER 6.5 or 7 in Oakland A's vs New York Mets @ 4:07 ET - The Mets are a massive favorite in this game and rightfully so. Even the run line at -1.5 runs is in the -200 range which is too pricey for me. But at -2.5 the line is -120. That is more reasonable but is also telling you that the oddsmakers are saying there is a good chance the Mets win this by at least 3 runs. With the total as low as 6.5 runs here, that means we need 2 runs out of the A's and that should get us at least a 5-2 final here and we win our over play. Note that as great as deGrom is in on the mound for the Mets, he enters this start having allowed 3 earned runs in B2B outings. Also, prior to a shutout at Pittsburgh in most recent road start, he allowed an average of 2 earned runs in his other two road starts this season. So I look for Oakland to scratch a couple here between deGrom and the New York bullpen. Of course the big key is that the Mets should absolutely crush the A's here. Waldichuk has been consistently roughed up since he was called up earlier this month and he has been getting progressively worse in each start really. Keep in mind, the Mets are 7-1 last 8 games and have scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in the 7 victories. The fact is there is a good chance they get this total all by themselves! The Athletics should contribute some though and 8 of their last 10 home games have totaled at least 8 runs! In fact, those 10 games have averaged 11 runs per game. Free Pick OVER 6.5 or 7 in Oakland

CFB Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers -16 vs Florida Atlantic Owls @ 7:30 ET - Rarely ever do I lay big points but this is one I will make a rare exception on. Even if Purdue lets up late in this game I still have them winning this game by at least 3 touchdowns. The Boilersmakers do have a pair of Big Ten road games on deck but they are off a road loss at Syracuse and are angry after letting that game slip away. Purdue, after today, has only one home game between now and November. I don't see them holding back here. They will run up the score in this one. This team throws the ball a lot and they are in need of a big win. Remember they lost a tough tight one at home to Penn State in the waning minutes earlier this season. In between the tough tight late-game losses to the Nittany Lions and the Orange, the Boilermakers crushed Indiana State 56-0. Of course Florida Atlantic is not an FCS program like the Sycamores are BUT that still does not change the fact that the Owls are not a great football team and they play in the weak SunBelt conference. This line is saying that Purdue would only be favored by 13 on a neutral field but I don't buy that given the situation. The Boilers have put up some big numbers on offense this season and FAU just does not have the firepower to keep up. Yes the Owls put up some big numbers against lesser competition but they were finally a dog last week and scored just 14 points against UCF. The other teams FAU has faced are a combined 3-7 and included an FCS school also. The Boilers, a Big Ten off a loss and having played a much tougher schedule than the Owls, absolutely pour it on in this one! 8* PURDUE -16

Saturday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion Monarchs vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 6 ET - We cashed with the over involving Arkansas State last week (at Memphis) and just as I mentioned last week you will read some similar things this week. I know this is not an exciting marquee match-up but this one jumped off the page at me because if you like the excitement of a ton of points being scored, this most certainly should be an entertaining affair here. Old Dominion is off a deceiving final score last week as they allowed over 500 yards of offense but only 16 points! That kind of craziness often leads to line value the very next week and that is the case here. Let's not forget the Monarchs did allow 39 points in their prior game which was at East Carolina. Also, though the Old Dominion offense has unimpressive stats so far they now take on an Arkansas State team that has allowed huge points and yardage against FBS foes. The Red Wolves rank as one of the worst defenses in the nation. However, Arkansas State's offense does their best to try to make up for it. They scored 32 points last week versus Memphis and also did put up 50 on those same Tigers last season when they faced them. Arkansas State no stranger to shootouts is the point I am making and lets not forget they scored over 50 in their first game this season. Even though that was only against Grambling, it is proof the offense can execute when the match-up is favorable. This one is favorable for sure in terms of plenty of points scored and the Red Wolves will score their fair share here. However, they are the underdog here for a reason. They just will not be able to stop a Monarchs offense that is at home and desperately in search of that breakout game and now has the perfect poor defense to be very efficient against and pile up points. The Red Wolves don't have the defensive talent to slow them down. The result is a shootout in this one. 10* OVER 56.5 in Old Dominion

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders +7 vs Texas Longhorns @ 3:30 ET - When people think of the Longhorns football program right now most just keep thinking about the game against Alabama two weeks ago which certainly was an ultra-impressive performance from Texas and they should be (and have been) commended for that. However, their first game of the season was against an out-classed UL Monroe team and then, after facing Crimson Tide, they faced a UTSA team that is set to be down some this season. Also, Roadrunners are not on the same level as the UT program yet actually hung much tougher with the Horns then the final score shows. UTSA had over 400 yards of offense and had 29 first downs compared to just 21 for Texas. Now further complicating this match-up for UT is, after getting hurt in the Alabama game, their starting QB still likely will not start this game. Ewers had a collarbone injury and even if he plays here I don't think he'll be 100% here. Either way, Card or Ewers making their first road start of this season and that is another big key here. UT has had a great early season schedule with 3 straight home games and their 2 wins over foes from much weaker conferences. Now the Longhorns finally go on the road and this is a big rivalry game and the Red Raiders would love nothing more to knock off their in-state rivals. Texas Tech has played very strong on defense this season and their loss at NC State last week was deceiving as they actually had a big yardage edge and first down edge and were simply done in by turnovers against the Wolfpack. All this has led to line value on the home dog catching a full touchdown here. The fact that UT has dominated this rivalry in recent years only adds fuel to the fire that will be burning for the team from Lubbock today. This is a fantastic home dog spot! 10* TEXAS TECH +7

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:10 ET - As mentioned yesterday, the Rockies are happy to see the Giants leave Denver! Colorado had just got swept by San Francisco and did not score well at all in any of the final 3 games of the 4-game sweep. Off a home shutout Thursday by a 3-0 count even though each team got to double digits in hits, I expected the runs to start pouring in now with the Padres coming to town. However, the teams went a ridiculous combined 3 of 19 with runners in scoring position yesterday! Look for more clutch hitting today for sure after that nonsense. These teams have had a lot of high-scoring games when they meet no matter the venue and I also like the fact that San Diego entered this series 13-8 last 21 road games. The Padres scored an average of nearly 7 runs per game in those 13 road victories! The Rockies should join the run-scoring party tonight as they have a tendency to pound Padres pitching when they face them here at Coors Field. No matter the starting pitchers here, I like the over in this one. But I will mention the expected starters are Yu Darvish and Chad Kuhl. Note that Darvish struggles more on the road including going 2-7 with a 5.54 ERA on the road last season. He also has struggled at times against the Rockies in recent seasons. As for Kuhl, he is winless with a 9.00 ERA and a .325 BAA in his 8 starts since All-Star break. My play is with action on pitchers! I'll take advantage of the line drop to 10.5 here! 10* OVER 10.5 in Colorado

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers. We cashed in tremendous home dog value with the Phillies Thursday as a top play underdog and now will come right back with them again in similar situation Saturday after also cashing with them Friday as the favorite. Phillies won 9-1 yesterday and I love this spot too. The home team has now won 9 of last 11 games between these divisional rivals. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of big 9-1 win yesterday following 1-0 shutout win Thursday after Wednesday's dramatic 4-3 comeback win in extra innings. Riding the positive wave, the Phillies are going to be tough to beat here. Keep in mind this series is the Phillies final home series of the season! They have had this one circled as being of key importance in their quest for securing a wild card spot because it is a long road trip after this to close out the season. That said, I like this play regardless of pitchers here but will mention that Falter has been pitching very well and has a 2.25 ERA last 7 starts. Wright has an impressive record for Braves on season but he has been roughed up recently in the month of September and the Phillies are currently the much hotter lineup in comparison with Atlanta. Acuna (back) might miss again to day for Braves. I look for the home team to improve to 10-2 last 12 between these rivals. The Braves are actually just 1-6 last 7 road games and have been held to an average of just 1 run per game in 5 of the 6 losses! More of the same expected here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +120

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1 @ BC Lions @ 10 PM ET - Yes the Lions managed to sneak past the Stampeders last week but it was in OT and BC still has not won a game in regulation time since week 11 and we are now in week 15. Calgary is 5-2 on the road this season and the only two losses away from home were at Winnipeg. Of course the Blue Bombers have been the best team in the league this season so no shame in those two defeats and one of the losses was by just a 2-point margin. The Stamps QB Maier had 3 touchdown passes last week while the Lions Adams did not have a single one. Yes, BC is a quality football team but they are not the same team without Rourke at QB. He was lost to a season-ending injury about a month ago and the Lions have struggled since then. After the Lions clawed their way to a tight OT victory last week at Calgary, look for the Stampeders to return the favor at BC! Note that the Stamps are 8-0 this season against teams not named Winnipeg or BC. The Lions have beaten them twice but by a total of just 3 points. There is a reason this game is priced at nearly a pick'em even though the Stampeders are on the road. This time the Stamps get over the hump and beat BC as I liked what I saw last week despite them falling just short on the scoreboard. Payback time in a key game for the visitors here. 10* CALGARY +1

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 in Ottawa Redblacks vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - These teams are off a bye week last week and had met the week before. The bye week means fresh legs here and the offenses will push the pace. The meeting the week prior staying under the total despite both teams putting up very impressive yardage numbers means line value here. The game two weeks ago should have easily gone over the total and yet ended up an under. The result is we have a total lower than it should be here and we have false perception in the marketplace. We'll take advantage. This one flies over the total as both offenses move the ball very well again and, this time, the points scored are commensurate with the yardage being piled up! 10* OVER 46.5 in Ottawa