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BYU is a perfect 5-0 to start their season, but I think their lucky to be in this position. Yes, they beat SMU and Kansas State, but the truth is they were out gained by the Wildcats and the Mustangs were going through a QB change. Considering Kalani Sitake is just 15-20 ATS as a home favorite in his ninth season in Provo its not like the Mormons are solid favs in this spot. Yes, Arizona has under achieved to this point especially on offense, but they could easily find their rhythm behind a very talented group.  I know the Cougars are off a bye week and rested, but in the past this has not been a good spot for them from a ATS perspective as they are 3-12 ATS L/15 with rest. The series visitor is 3-0 ATS L/3. 

Play on Arizona to cover

This is it, the loser here goes home while the winner advances to the ALCS. Im only looking one way here in this tilt in Cleveland. With the ultra talented Tarik Skubal  going to the hill for the  Detroit Tigers, Im betting they have an edge. The young southpaws record stands at 18-4  along with a  2.39 ERA and enters this game in top form as is evident by have allowed five total runs in his last seven starts between the regular season and playoffs across 45 2/3 innings of quality work. He will be backed by a bullpen that owned the best bullpen in the league fro m August 1  on with  a solid  2.71 ERA.  Meanwhile, former Tigers Boyd will take to the mound for the Guardians. and is also backed by a strong bullpen. But you can bet the Tigers have an extensive book on Boyd, and that gives them an edge here behind a offense that ranked forst in the league from Aug 13th on.  Bottom line here is that the the Guardians have produced  just seven runs in the last 35 innings and against Skubal and company their fuitilty Im betting will continue.TARIK SKUBAL on the money line when playing on Saturday his team is 12-2 in his career. Detroit in road games on the money line after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival are on a 7-1 run.

Play on Detroit to win

 Marshall is off a  52-37 win over App State, last week and could easily be caught in a letdown spot . App State was chosen in the preseason to win the SBC East Division. Marshall also enters this tilt against Georgia Southern  having lost 7 straight away games and Im betting things dont get much easier for them here vs a side  Eagles that battled a ranked  Boise State in their opener. Georgia Southern are also well rested as they  come into the game after a week off following a 38-21 win over Georgia State on Sept. 28. 

In games featuring two ranked teams darting back 7 seasons, home sides  are 178-88 SU and 151-107-8 ATS for. a 59% conversion rate for bettors. .Considering OSU’s  1-5 ATS record away when both squads are unbeaten we have a trending situation that favors the home side.It must be noted that the last time these teams met back in 2021 the Ducks waddled away with the victory and according to my projections are live dogs in this spot play situation. 

Play on Oregon

N.Texas is 14-2 ATS  in games against .400-or-less opposition like 2-3 Florida Atlantic . The Mean Green have played three times as a moneyline favorite with odds of -205 or shorter, and earned a victory in each game. Owls have lost both games they’ve played as underdogs this season.FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 4-16 (20%) ATS in its last 20 games following a SU win which was the case last time out. North Texas in October games are 9-0 ATS dating back to the 2022 season.North Texas when playing against a team with a losing record are 5-0 ATS since last season.

North Texas to cover

I know how bad Purdue has looked offensively this season ranking 120th in the nation, but after losing their first game to Penn State last time out, their opponents today Illinois may not be feeling it here and could easily play a mediocre game. It must be noted that Illini are 2-15 ATS  L/17 games as conference home favorite. Add to that Purdue has owned this series of late winning the L/4 meetings and you have what must be considered a value line to bet into . Especially when considering  PURDUE has been money in the back for their backers as is evident by a  11-1 ATS record in its last 12 games as a Big Ten dog of 20+ points. 

Illinois in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49.are 0-5 ATS dating back to last season and are.0-5 ATS home games against conference opponents.

Play on Purdue to cover 

ULM  took out  previously unbeaten James Madison last Saturday night and will now be in a-huge emotional letdown spot vs Southern Miss this Saturday are vulnerable to a average at best outing.   ULM is 2-6 all-time versus Southern Miss and 0-2 versus the Golden Eagles inside Malone Stadium. USM has won the previous two meetings back in 2022 & 2023. 

LA-MONROE is on a 1-15 ATS run as a home favorite in Sun Belt play.

HC Will Hall off a cover where the team lost as an underdog is 6-0 ATS as HC of S.Miss.

CFB Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - turnover prone team (2.5+ TO/game) against a mistake-free team (1.25 or lessTO/game), after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 24-3 ATS since the 1992 season.

Play on Southern Miss 

The New Mexico offense is humming but their defense is not performing optimally, and a Air Force squad that is not in top form yet, could easily get untracked here today and do more damage offensively than anticipated by the pundits and linesmakers alike. New Mexico is just  1-14 ATS L/15  games as a home favorite, including 0-13 ATS as a favorite of fifteen or less points. 

CFB  home team - bad team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game, after scoring 37 points or more last game are 12-41 ATS since the 2015 season.

Take the points with Air Force 

LSU off a bye week will be well rested and  primed to win this tilt as they have “Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Alabama up next -and cant afford a loss here. Last season these teams took part in a high scoring event in Oxford that Ole Miss won, and now in revenge mlode LSU Im betting will get payback and or at least a cover. Note: LSU is  5-1 ATS as a series dog with revenge, and 10-2 ATS in their last twelve with sone game exact  SEC revenge. LSU is 15-6 SU in revenge mode . Also the home side has covered 6 straight meetings in this series and get the nod again tonight. HOME SIDES  are on a 10-1 ATS run in the Ole Miss-LSU series. CFB Road favorites - after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins are 13-40 ATS sinc ethe 2015 season.

Play on LSU to cover

Both these teams are off big offensive outputs and wins last time out, but Chicago has a recent history of coming out flat after a top tier performance. Jacksonville (1-4) became the last team in the NFL to earn a victory this season behind a career-best 371 passing yards from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Im backing him to get the job done again. 

NFL Favorites vs. the money line - in non-conference games, off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival are 102-27 since the 1983 season.

Jacksonville in away or neutral games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) are a perfect 5-0 ATS L/5 . Jacksonville on the money line in October games are a perfect 5-0 since last season.

Chicago in away or neutral games in non-conference games are 0-5 ATS L/5 overall.Matt Eberflus after scoring 30 points or more last game 0-6 L/6 overall.Matt Eberflus on the money line vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game has lost 10 of his L/11.

Play on the Jacksonville Jags to cover

This a lower total but for good reason it features the #1 and #2 scoring defenses  in the NFL.  (The Broncos are  allow ing 14.6 ppg  while LA Chargers   allow 12.5 ppg ). Both offenses have been abysmal this season, ranking 31st and 32nd respectively. Denver is off a big win last time out, but it must noted that the Broncos have gone under in 13 of their L/14 games after a win by  14  points or more.LA Chargers games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points are 8-1 UNDER since last season with a combined average of 31.3 ppg scored. Everything points to a low scoring grinding type affair.

Play under

  Tennessee Titans, according to my power rankings are being under rated by the markets at this time mostly because of a lack of offensive production . A bye week and some schemtics adjustments should be golden in this spot play situation.  Tennessee  is  a team that has held three of its four foes  to season-low yardage so far this season and if they can get things rolling on the production end will be able to make up trending strides    Meanwhile, the Colts have allowed season-high yards in its last two trips to the gridiron. Titans 7-0 ATS in games coming off a Bye week.

NFL Underdogs vs. the money line like the Colts- with an excellent offense - averaging 5.7 or more yards/play, after allowing 375 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games are 9-42 SU dating back to the 1983 campaign.

Play on Tennessee to cover