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Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports-NBA/NHL/MLB action now on board. Get the sports investment info the books do not want you to have.
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WNBA SUBSCRIPTIONS
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**2015 WNBA Champion!**
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  May 21, 2022
Avalanche vs Blues
OVER 6½ -108 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

After struggling to score in game 2 losing 4-1 to the Blues Im betting on the Avs to come back here in aggressive offensive fashion which will force the Blues to open up as well which Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this offered totals number.

COLORADO is 8-2 OVER  after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game this season with a combined average of 6.7 gpg scored. Over is 16-7 in Avalanche last 23 playoff games as a favorite.

ST LOUIS is 21-9 OVER against excellent power play teams - scoring on 19%  or better of their chances in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 7.4 gpg scored.ST LOUIS is 30-14 OVER  against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game this season with a combined average of 7.5 gpg scored. Over is 10-3-1 in Blues last 14 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Over is 16-5-1 in Blues last 22 games following a win.Over is 15-5-1 in Blues last 21 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 6-2 in Blues last 8 playoff games as an underdog. Over is 22-8-2 in Blues last 32 games a home underdog.

Play OVER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 21, 2022
Heat vs Celtics
Heat
+6½ -110 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

After watching the Celtics manhandle the Heat in game 2 of this series, alot of money has come down on Boston. Wrong or right Im going to take a contrarian stance, with the under rated Heat and their ability to bounce back in true zig zag theory. It must be noted for whatever reason, I began to focus on the Heats progressions closely this season, and according to my power rankings are vastly under rated and with 6+ points to take on the table Im betting we get a cover. 

BOSTON is 7-18 ATS  in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Conference Finals games.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.Celtics are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. MIAMI is 18-6 ATS   as an underdog this season. Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

MIAMI is 15-6 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. MIAMI is 15-7 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 58-28 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Heat are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston.

Play on Miami to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 21, 2022
White Sox vs Yankees
UNDER 9 +107 Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Dallas Keuchel (2-3, 5.54), took a no-decision against the Yankees last Saturday after pitching five scoreless innings, The veteran southpaw is  4-4 with a 2.06 ERA in 10 career starts against New York.Since getting roughed up for 10 runs in an 11-1 loss at Cleveland on April 20, Keuchel has recorded a solid 2.70 ERA in his past four starts and is being under rated here in his ability to slow down the Yankees offensive production . Meanwhile his pitching opponent  Cortes has been on fire to start his season, posting a  (2-1, 1.35 ERA) record and .Since May 30 2020   he owns  a stingy  2.44 ERA in 133 innings of top tier work.CORTES is 13-3 UNDER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) and is 10-2 UNDER when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) CORTES is 15-5 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Under is 8-1-1 in White Sox last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 8-1-1 in White Sox last 10 road game. Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as an underdog.Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games as a road underdog. Under is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 6-2 in White Sox last 8 during game 1 of a series.

NY YANKEES are 14-2 UNDER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.NY YANKEES are 9-0 UNDER  after a loss this season.LARUSSA is 28-14 UNDER  on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 as the manager of CHI WHITE SOX. Under is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 12-3-1 in Yankees last 16 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in New York.

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 21, 2022
Diamondbacks vs Cubs
Diamondbacks
+132 at Ace
Won
$132
Play Type: Premium

DBacks starter Bumgarner posted a 1.17 ERA in five April starts but has cooled a bit this month but still deserves respect here in the underdog role. Bumgarner has usually performed well  against the Cubs, going 9-3 with a 2.25 ERA in 15 career starts. The Dbacks cashed for us an underdog yesterday and Im going back to the well again here in this spot play. ARIZONA is 8-1  against the money line after 4 or more consecutive road games this season.

ARIZONA is 9-4  against the money line in road games with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) this season. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 6-21  against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons

 CHICAGO CUBS are 1-9 against the money line in home games after a loss this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ARIZONA) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a losing team are 32-11 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play on Arizona to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 21, 2022
Rangers vs Astros
Astros
-1½ -120 at BetVegas
Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

Texas will send Jon Gray (1-1, 5.73 ERA) to the mound while Houston will counter with fellow right-hander Justin Verlander (5-1, 1.38). The pitching advantage obviously resides with the Astros . Verlander has won his last four starts, has pitched at least five innings in each of his seven starts this season and has not allowed more than five hits in any tilt he has pitched in . His most recent outing was on Sunday when he gave up just two hits and three walks in five innings in an 8-0 Houston win in Washington.

HOUSTON is 30-10  against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff clicking in at +1.8 . 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (HOUSTON) - top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season, after scoring 1 run or less are 49-5 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate with a average of +3.2 which qualifies on this runline offering. 

Play on the Astros to win -1.5 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.