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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 15, 2022
Orioles vs Blue Jays
Orioles
+145 at Ace
Won
$145
Play Type: Premium

Blue Jays Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (4-6, 5.13 ERA) is scheduled to start for Toronto on Monday. He is 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA in four career starts against the Orioles.

KIKUCHI is 2-7 against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Orioles are 11-3 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter. Orioles are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.

Tonight Im betting the under rated Orioles have success against the Jays starting hurler and tired bullpen  and help get us an underdog win. It must also be noted that Jays star slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was 0-for-4 with an RBI on Sunday to end his hitting streak at a career-best 22 games. In his past six games, he is 5-for-26 and this to me a fore bearer for bumpy road for the streaky Jays . 

Play on Baltimore to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 15, 2022
Padres vs Marlins
Padres
-130 at BetVegas
Lost
$130.0
Play Type: Premium

The Padres, who are coming off a 6-0 win over the Washington Nationals on yesterday and will start right-hander Joe Musgrove (8-5, 2.91). The Padres are 13-7 this year when starting Musgrove. The right hander  leads Padres starters in ERA, has 15 quality starts out of his 20 appearances. MIAMI is 3-11  against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. MUSGROVE is 3-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.135 and his team has won all 4 starts. 

Meanwhile, the Padres' heavy-hitting lineup now in top form are well prepared   to  face Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara (10-5, 2.01 ERA), the favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award.

MIAMI is 0-10  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.

MIAMI is 4-16  against the money line in home games in the second half of the season this season. MIAMI is 3-17 against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SAN DIEGO) - with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 28-12 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Diego Padres to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 15, 2022
Astros vs White Sox
OVER 8 -120 Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Premium

White Sox starter CUETO is 15-4 OVER   in home games in August games in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored. CUETO is 26-11 OVER (+14.8 Units) in home games vs. poor base-running teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.5 rpg scored. 

Cueto has given up 21 hits over 14 innings in two starts this month and Im betting Astros batting order lights him up and helps us eclipse this total. 

Over is 5-1 in Astros last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 3-1-1 in White Sox last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

I know the Astros starter J. Urquidy has been hot but it must be noted that the CHI WHITE SOX are 11-3 OVER  in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season with a combined average of 12.2 rpg scored. ( Astros starter J. Urquidy qualifies) 

Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 55-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.