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Alex Smart |
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| Alex Smart Sports - Where winning means everything. Get the bankroll expanding info the books do not want you to have. |
| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| MLB | Aug 22, 2019 Rays vs. Orioles |
Orioles +190 at BETONLINE |
in 2h |
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Asher Wojciechowski(2-6, 4.78 ERA, 56 SO)may not inspire bettors as he has lost three consecutive decisions since his very strong two-start stretch last month. He hasn't won lately but he is highly under rated as he leads Orioles starters with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Note: The last time his team won, when he was on the mound was vs Verlander and Houston as the Os got the victory via a 8-7 score. So small miracles are possible. I know Yarbrough the Rays starter has been impressive since the all star break, and is on a 6-0 run, but all good and bad things must come to an end. That is what Im betting on here tonight on a value line with a Baltimore team that has won 2 straight and playing with momentum. TAMPA BAY have lost 15 of their L/22 against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (TAMPA BAY) - team with a lower tier OBP (.320 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are just 25-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Baltimore Os to win on the ML |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 21, 2019 White Sox vs Twins |
White Sox +167 at 1BetVegas |
Won $167 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Lucas Giolito (13-6, 3.41 ERA, 182 SO) delivered a quality start against the Angels on Friday, fanning 11 in six innings of two-run ball. The right-hander has reached double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two outings and gets my support here this afternoon. The White Sox are 6-0 on the ML in franchise history with Lucas Giolito as a 150-plus road dog when he averaged more than 3.90 pitches per batter in his last start. MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MINNESOTA) - after a win by 4 runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 17 runs or more are 30-53 L/5 seasons for a go against 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the White sox to win on the ML ( Late Steam) |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 21, 2019 Yankees vs A's |
A's -112 at pinnacle |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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J.A. Happ 10-7, (5.40 ERA, 101 SO) has given the Yankees at least five innings in each of his last four starts, though he has done so with a 6.23 ERA over that span. Meanwhile, As hurler Fiers has not lost a game since May 1 at Boston. Beginning with his no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on May 7, Fiers is 9-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 18 starts and deserves our support here tonight at home on a value line. FIERS is 14-2 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) and is s 11-3 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. (Team's Record) FIERS is 9-0 against the money line in August games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) NY YANKEES are 3-16 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Athletics are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Athletics are 8-2 in their last 10 vs. American League East.Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Athletics are 20-7 in their last 27 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Yankees are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Oakland. MLB Road teams (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL), good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season are 42-84 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Oakland As to win on the ML |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 21, 2019 Royals vs Orioles |
Orioles -103 at YouWager |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Royals LH Mike Montgomery (3-5, 4.63 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Aaron Brooks (2-7, 6.49) Montgomery, has pitched decently of late, but has a bloated 4.91 ERA in three appearances against the Orioles and from a power ranking pitcher vs batting order perspective does not matchup all that well against the Orioles batting order. His pitching opponent Brooks is fighting for a future rotation spot either here or somewhere else and after some bad efforts will primed to respond like a cornered animal. ( No disrespect intended) KANSAS CITY is 19-30 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. KANSAS CITY is 32-60 against the money line against right-handed starters this season. Royals are 19-64 in their last 83 during game 3 of a series. Royals are 2-10 in the last 12 meetings in Baltimore.Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 10 games are 20-50 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the ML |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 21, 2019 Nationals vs Pirates |
OVER 9 +105 |
Won $105 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Musgrove In his last 11 starts, owns a 4.22 ERA in 59 2/3 innings and Im betting the Nationals sometimes explosive batting order will light him today. Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin despite of being a left hander, which Pittsburgh has struggled against this season, has not been very consistent on the road where he owns a 5.12 ERA in 13 road outings. CORBIN in his career is 20-8 OVER in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) with an average of 10.6 rpg going on the board. Over is 4-0 in Corbins last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-1 in Pirates last 6 vs. National League East.Over is 20-6 in Pirates last 26 during game 3 of a series.Over is 4-1 in Musgroves last 5 starts vs. National League East. PITTSBURGH is 27-8 OVER at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored. PITTSBURGH in 33 games against left-handed starters this season have seen a combined average of 9.5 rpg scored. Play OVER |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Aug 22, 2019 Giants vs Cubs |
Giants +178 at 5Dimes |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Giants starter Jeff Samardzija (9-9, 3.54 ERA, 119 SO)has been one of the best starters in the NL since July 1, posting a 2.09 ERA over his last nine starts and now gets my support here this afternoon in Chicago against the Cubs. SAMARDZIJA is 5-0 ( against the money line in road games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) The Giants are 5-0 on the ML when Jeff Samardzija starts as a underdog when they lost in his last start against their opponent.Giants are 7-0 in Samardzijas last 7 road starts. Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 games with umpire Nauert behind home plate. .The Cubs won yesterday vs the Giants in a 12-11 shoutout, but those kinds of games in the followup have not been kind to the Cubs as they are are 1-7 against the money line after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more this season. MLB underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game are 38-24 L/22 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the SF Giants ( Late Steam) |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 20 years. I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes. My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigous event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%! I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled. These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections. |
