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Alex Smart Alex Smart
Alex Smart Sports -Where winning means everything. Get the bankroll expanding info the books do not want you to have.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 11, 2019
Wolves vs Pistons
Pistons
-2½ -110 at Mirage
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Minnesota lost in a hard fought OT  game last night to Denver and will now be on tired legs and a letdown spot. Advantage Detroit Pistons with  two days rest. 

Pistons are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.Pistons are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference.Pistons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest.

Favorite is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

The Pistons are 11-0 ATS /SU when they won 4+ straight meetings vs current opponent.

The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS SU  as a dog after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points last game.

Play on Detroit to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 11, 2019
Kent State vs Towson
Towson
-2 -110 at sportsbook
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Towson looks to have a special group this season, and  leads the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) in scoring defense (44.5), field goal percentage defense (31.6), 3-point field goal percentage defense (21.1), rebounding (26.0), blocked shots (4.5), steals (13.0), scoring margin (+41.5), rebounding margin (+15.0) and turnover margin (+11.0).Towson is 2-0 for the first time since 2016 and get my support here vs Kent State.Towson is averaging 16 assists in its two games.The Tigers have scored 40 points in three consecutive halves.The Tigers averaged 1.351 points per possession against Bryn Athyn. Gibson has scored 24.2 percent of Towson's 95 bench points.

Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Golden Flashes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.

KENT ST is 0-7 ATS  at road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Towson to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 11, 2019
Jazz vs Warriors
Warriors
+9 -109 at pinnacle
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

The Utah Jazz enter this game off a big home win vs the Milwaukee Bucks last time out, and Im betting they will now be in a letdown situation. I know Golden State is also in a funk, and on tired legs , but in a game that will be fairly slow paced and quite probably lower scoring, a 9 point spread for advantage players looks like a viable investment option.The Jazz are 0-4 ATS /1-3 SU L/4 on the road.the lone win came by a 1 point margin vs the Suns. 

NBA Road teams (UTAH) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 41% or less on the season, after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 38-83 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 11, 2019
Jazz vs Warriors
UNDER 213 -109 Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

  The Jazz are off a hard fought battle vs Milwaukee last time out(103-100), and subsequent win, and will be in a bit of an emotional letdown state here in Golden State , which Im betting sees them set an even slower pace than usual ( Utah ranks 1st in pace in the NBA). The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  since Apr 20, 2019 going under by more than 17 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 198.1 ppg, with none of the games, eclipsing this current listed total. Also The Jazz are  0-5 L/5 UNDER  on the road with a combined average of 193.4 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile Golden State prepares to play their 4th game in 6 nights, which includes 3 straight road games,  and will now also be on tired legs and happy to also set a slower pace.

UTAH is 16-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.4 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 45-19 UNDER L/5seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 11, 2019
Senators vs Hurricanes
UNDER 6½ -102 Lost
$102.0
Play Type: Premium

Ottawa has allowed 2 goals or less in 6 of their L/9 games and have taken part in 3 straight low scoring affairs that have failed to eclipse the total. Meanwhile, Carolina the Senators hosts tonight have been struggling to score finding the back of the net with 2 or less goals in 7 of their 11 overall, and have also gone under in 3 straight games, all three of which were losses. Needless to say this is the kind of game that has lower scoring tilt written all over it. 

CAROLINA is 13-4 UNDER  in home games against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 gpg going on the board. 

CAROLINA is 8-1 UNDER  in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

NHL Road teams against the total (OTTAWA) - off a home win, a struggling team (30% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the first half of the season are 30-7 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate . 

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 11, 2019
Mavs vs Celtics
Celtics
-3½ -105 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Boston enters this game of an upset underdog win on the road vs the San Antonio Spurs last time out by a 135-115 count  for their 7th straight win. They are currently in top form and a tough opponent for any team whether it is at home or on the road . Note: BOSTON is 13-2 ATS  off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. 

NBA Home favorites  (BOSTON) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-1 SU L/23 seasons with  a + 13.7 ppg diff. 

Play on the Boston Celtics to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 11, 2019
Seahawks vs 49ers
UNDER 47 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

Im betting this divisional rivalry will be a hard fought fairly low scoring battle. I know Seattle has shown itself to have a some problems in the secondary , and that many believe that Jimmy G, can take advantage of them, but with his most dynamic offensive weapon, tight end George Kittle,  banged up with a knee issue spreading the field could be an issue. On the other side of the ball, SF has shown issues stopping the run, and Seattle should be out looking to take advantage of this which will keep the clock ticking when the Seahawks have the ball. This above combination will help keep this combined score to the low side of the number. 

SEATTLE in their L/6 road  games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 season have seen a combined average of 44.2 ppg scored. HC Carroll  in 14  road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points as the coach of SEATTLE has seen a combined average of 42 ppg going on the score board.

Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 Monday games.

Under is 12-4 in 49ers last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in San Francisco.

SAN FRANCISCO is 20-7 L/27 UNDER in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with a combined average of 40.8 ppg scored. 

NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SEATTLE) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games are 45-19  UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN FRANCISCO) - excellent offensive team (370 or more YPG) against a terrible defense (370 or more YPG) after 8+ games are 26-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 12, 2019
Pacific vs Hawaii
Pacific
+4½ -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Pacific faces Hawaii in an early season matchup. Pacific blew out Florida A&M by 22 in its last outing. Hawaii lost 81-75 loss at home against South Dakota in its most recent game. Pacifc had a much easier time than Hawaii and will be fresher, after Hawaii worked hard in loss to South Dakota. Advantage Pacific.

Warriors are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. West Coast.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Stoudamire is 10-2 ATS in a road game where the total is 130 to 139.5 as the coach of PACIFIC. 

Play on Pacific to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 20 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 18 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.