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Alex Smart Alex Smart
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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 17, 2021
Chiefs vs. Washington Football Team
Chiefs
-6½ -110
  at  PINNACLE
in 1d

Two teams off of losses. But according to my power rankings and projections the superior advantage  resides with Andy Reid and company.

WASHINGTON is 2-10 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 or more points.

KANSAS CITY is 11-1 ATS  in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games. 

NFL Road favorites (KANSAS CITY) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, a struggling  team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-7 ATS L/38 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

NFL Underdogs or pick (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games, with a losing record.are 3-22 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

NFL Road favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (KANSAS CITY) - good passing team - averaging 230 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 31-1 L/10 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.9 which qualify on a ATS line. 

Play on Kansas City -

Projected score: KC 34 Washington 20 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Oct 14, 2021
Maple Leafs vs Senators
Senators
+150 at pinnacle
Won
$150
Play Type: Premium

The Leafs are on tired legs after playing  a hard fought game against the Habs last night and now go against a Ottawa team that is playing their first game of the season at home. Im betting on an emotional letdown by the Leafs and for a spirited effort from a Sens team that has played the Buds tough in the recent past. TORONTO is 3-13 ATS  off a close home win by 1 goal over the last 3 seasons with the average gpg diff clicking in at -1. 

Senators are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.Senators are 5-0 in their last 5 home games dating back to last season.

Home team is 5-1 L/6 meetings. 

Play on Ottawa to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Oct 14, 2021
Islanders vs Hurricanes
Islanders
+110 at pinnacle
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Free

GM Lou Lamoriello compiled a Long Island  group that is primed to make a run to a Stanley Cup this season, if they can stay healthy.

With the additions of veterans Zdeno Chara and Zach Parise  and a deep under rated group of forwards and highlight reel defenseman  they must be respected as underdogs . 

Play on the NYI 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 14, 2021
Bucs vs Eagles
Eagles
+7 -117 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Philadelphia D has ,held three of its five sides they have faced this season season-low yardage . Thats important against explosive  44 year old future HOF QB  Tom Brady and company. 

In a historical context is must be noted that the Eagles have gone 7-0 SU L/7 in  Thursday nighters while Tampa Bay  is just 1-7 ATS in these prime time affairs. 

Basically at this number we have real value and recommend we take the points here with the home dog. Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

 Buccaneers are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games in October.

Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Play on Philadelphia Eagles to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Oct 14, 2021
Dodgers vs Giants
Giants
-104 at pinnacle
Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Premium

Starting pitcher WEBB is 10-0  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. (Team's Record) WEBB is 13-0  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. (Team's Record) WEBB is 16-2 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) WEBB is 13-0 against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record) Dodgers pitcher Urias is a strong hurler but my pitcher vs batting order rankings suggest Webb and his bullpen when needed have the edge. 

 Giants are 22-5 in their last 27 games following an off day.  Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 playoff home games.

LA DODGERS are 19-33  L/52 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) in the second half of the season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a good SLG (.430 or more ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 43-16 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Dodgers are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings.

Play on the SF Giants to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 14, 2021
Georgia Southern vs South Alabama
Georgia Southern
+3 -105 at pinnacle
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

 Georgia Southern under interim head coach Kevin Whitley have looked viable.  The Eagles have won all 7 previous meetings in this series  by an average score of 35.9-11.3  (24.6 ppg diff  average) and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this Thursday night and a definite cover according to my projections. 

S ALABAMA is 15-32 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games 

CFB teams where the line is +3 to -3 (S ALABAMA) - after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more, in October games are 11-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Georgia Southern to cover 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 15, 2021
Marshall vs North Texas
North Texas
+11 -105 at linepros
Play Type: Premium

Marshall at .500 on the season  has not been able to get any kind of momentum this season and have continually been in close games as is evident by   four straight decisions  decided by 7 points or less.  Meanwhile, North Texas after giving Missouri all it could handle  in a 48-35 loss as a 20-point dog, and subsequent cover. In their previous tilt they also showed their ability compete in a 7 point loss to  Louisiana Tech as an 11.5-point underdog which resulted in a cover.  Im betting the Mean Green continue to conjure up the  spirits , and the gambling gods shine on their backers again here vs the Thundering Herd .MARSHALL is 0-9 ATS  L/9 after allowing 125 or less passing yards in 2 straight games.

Play on the N.Texas Mean Green 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 15, 2021
Clemson vs Syracuse
Syracuse
+14 -110 at SC Consensus
Play Type: Premium

 Clemson to me has been less than impressive this season with a 0-5 ATS mark, with their average margin ppg diff clicking in at just +6.4 ppg a far cry from recent seasons. Meanwhile, Coach Babers has the Orange playing some very disciplined defensive football, and they must respected on this Two TD line here at home. 

Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.

SYRACUSE is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games .SYRACUSE is 18-3 ATS L/21 in home games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game and  11-1 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards last game. 

Babers is 7-0 ATS  vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game as the coach of SYRACUSE. Babers is 12-3 ATS ( versus good rushing defenses - allowing  3.25 or less rushing yards/carry in all games he has coached in his career. 

CFB home team vs. the money line (SYRACUSE) - with a good rushing D - allowing 125 or less rushing yards/game, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games is 46-7 L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Play on Syracuse to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.