Alex Smart |
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Alex Smart Sports- Where winning means everything. |
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NFL | Oct 21, 2024 Chargers vs Cardinals |
Chargers -1 -110 at circa |
Lost $110.0 |
Play Type: Premium | ||
The Chargers are the best rushing defense in the league, and own a top-five passing defense and Im betting they make the Cardinals work hard for any point production they can muster tonight. Meanwhile, the Cards are averaging just 22.2 points per game this year.Since Week 3, Arizona ranks 25th in the league in EPA per play (-0.078). On the flipside, of those numbers, it must be noted that the Cardinals from a defensive perspective rank 23rd in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.027) during this campaign which is not a good omen for their chances vs a run heavy Chargers attack. HC Harbaugh in his coaching career, has seen his team victorious in 17 of 20 tilts as road chalk of 7 or less and that includes 2-0 SU so far this season. Arizona on the money line vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse have lost 15 of their L/16 times dating back to the 2022 season. Chargers are 6-0-1 ATS MNF road games, Arizona is 0-4 L/4 MNF games . Play on LA Chargers to cover |
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Matchup | Selection | W/L |
NFL | Oct 21, 2024 Ravens vs Bucs |
OVER 50 -108 |
Won $100 |
Play Type: Free | ||
The Ravens enter this game against the Tampa Bay Bucs in full steam ahead mode, and in their current form look unstoppable. Especially when RB Henry has been on. Recently he has rushed for at least 132 yards in three of the last four games Not a good omen for the Bucs considering they rank just 25th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.011) . Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has also looked good behind QB Mayfield who looks to be ready to uptrend vs a Ravens secondary that continues to have issues . Mayfield has thrown a total of seven passing touchdowns over the last two weeks and projects for at least 2 here tonight . Baltimore has gone Over in five of its six games. Tampa Bay has gone over in 4 of its L/6 overall. Play over |
SERVICE BIO |
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Experience & Awards I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. My picks have been documented for 22 years. I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009 in a prestigious event. I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006. I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years. I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. Handicapping Approach I have a firm belief in my systems. There is not a sport I feel I can not beat. My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned. I have a large database of information and statistics. I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form. I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement. Sports Betting Is An Investment Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance. The same is true of financial analysts. The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage. You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable. I think sports betting is even better than the stock market. The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched. In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool. I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor! This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously! Money Management To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin. You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll. If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game. No more than 3% on the best bets. This might seem a little on the low side. But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books. You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality. Here are some additional guidelines I recommend. 1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources. 2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea. 3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line. It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture. 4. Buy off the hook on key numbers. 5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling. 6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base. These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits. I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. *All selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). |