This is a 10* on USC

USC is 3-0 and looking good for coach Andy Enfield. The Trojans have beaten each of their three opponents by at least 18 points. While this is the first road game of the season, they are favored to win in Reno and we like them to keep rolling. Nevada has already eaten a loss. It came in the first game (vs. Utah) where they were favored to win by four but fell 79-74. The Wolf Pack have since bounced back with wins over Loyola Marymount and UT-Arlington. But both wins were close, coming by five and seven points respectively. One key area where USC will have the edge tonight is offensive rebounding. The Trojans have posted an off rebounding percentage of 40.5 so far. That ranks 21st in the country. Nevada's offensive rebounding percentage of 18.6 ranks 283rd. Jalen Harris led Nevada with 24 points in the win Tuesday night over UT-Arlington. But he is still not 100% after missing most of the first two games with a foot injury. Against a team like USC, one of your best players not being completely healthy could be the difference. This is a revenge game for USC. They lost by 12 to Nevada last year at home. Poor three-point shooting is the reason they lost. But, as indicated by the pointspread, this year's squad is better. Play on USC

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is a small dog tonight in San Antonio. But it would appear as if the oddsmakers have failed to account for the fact that the Spurs are playing the second night of a back to back. This line would make sense were the home team rested. But they're not. The Blazers should be favored. Then there is the matter of what happened to the Spurs last night. Despite being up most of the game, they lost to Orlando 111-109. You just can't lose games where you have a 16-point lead ad shoot 50%. But the Spurs did just that. It was their 4th straight loss. For maybe the first time in Greg Popovich's tenure here, defense has become a major issue in San Antonio. The Spurs gave up 64 points to the Magic in the second half last night. They've allowed at least 112 points in five straight games.This is a revenge game for Portland, who lost 113-110 here in SA on October 28th. Both teams enjoyed a lead of 19 points in that game. The Blazers ended up covering as six-point underdogs. While the line isn't as high this time, that's irrelevant as the road team can clearly win outright here. Portland needs this one pretty badly as they've dropped six of seven. Carmelo Anthony won't be coming on board until Tuesday at the earliest. But the Blazers are well rested heading into Saturday (two days off) while the similarly struggling Spurs are not. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* play on BAYLOR

Baylor is 9-0, but they're also a home dog to Oklahoma this week. Not only that, they are a double-digit home dog. That's pretty rare territory for a team to be in. The only other time in the last 40 years that a 9-0 team was a home dog of at least 7 points was Notre Dame's famous upset of Florida State in 1993. Only six 9-0 or better teams have EVER been a home underdog. Four of the six wound up winning their games outright. It should be pointed out that 9-0 Minnesota is also an underdog this week, but they're playing on the road. Speaking of the Golden Gophers, they were in a pretty similar spot last week (were 8-0) vs. Penn State and won. Bottom line is you shouldn't be writing off these unbeatens just because you didn't expect them to be unbeaten at this point. Baylor has won plenty of close games this year. But they are also 6-0 ATS their last six games as an underdog, winning five of them straight up. Coach Matt Rhule is 32-14 ATS in his career getting points and has won 16 of those games straight up. That includes 13-5 ATS as a home dog with seven straight up wins. Oklahoma's defense has been bad the last two games, giving up 48 and 41 points. They lost at Kansas State and then needed to stop an Iowa State 2-point try in the final minute to win last week. Baylor has allowed more than 21 points in regulation only two times all year. They can certainly win this game. Play on BAYLOR

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON STATE

The loser of this game is going to see their postseason hopes take a major hit. Both Stanford and Washington State enter at 4-5 meaning whomever loses here will then need to win out just to get to a bowl game. Fortunately for Wazzu, the game is in Pullman where they have lost only two times in the last three seasons. Once was last year's Apple Cup (vs. Washington). The other was earlier this season in that wild 67-63 game against UCLA. Stanford isn't about to score 27 points, let alone 67. Consider the Cardinal "offensively challenged" as they could manage only 13 points last week against a Colorado defense that is probably the Pac 12's worst. Stanford averages only 21.6 points/game and has been held below that average five times. Washington State has scored at least 30 in every Pac 12 game besides Utah and Cal, who are the league's two best defensive teams. In the last three years, Mike Leach's offense has put up 107 points on the Stanford defense. This year, the Cardinal are missing two key players in their secondary. Despite losing five of six, the Cougs are still a formidable group. They get back on track in a big way Saturday afternoon. Play on WASHINGTON STATE

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This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Hawaii games have seen a spike in scoring over the last month with five straight games going Over. Every one of those five games saw at least 79 total points scored. Oddsmakers have been slow playing catchup as not even an absurd 78.5 could keep the Warriors and San Jose State Under last week (Hawaii won 42-40). But this week should finally be the time where the scoring subsides. UNLV is the opponent this week. The Rebels don't have any chance of making a bowl and Tony Sanchez may be coaching his final games out in the desert. The Rebels just can't seem to put it together offensively. Six of the last eight games have seen them held to 17 points or less. If UNLV is held to anything close to 17 points this week, then this will be an easy Under. Hawaii can't go Over themselves. They've scored more than 45 points only one time in 2019. Hitting the mainland, we expect Hawaii's offense not to be as prolific as recent weeks. The home team is on a 9-1 run in the series and that includes a 35-28 Hawaii win in Honolulu last year. Four of the last five meetings have seen 72 points or less scored. UNLV is off a bye, but that hardly matters. They are going nowhere fast. Redshirt freshman Kenyon Oblad isn't the answer at quarterback. Play UNDER Hawaii-Nevada

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This is a 10* play on BALL ST

Sometimes, handicapping a particular matchup (in any sport) can come to down to one simple factor. In the case of this game, it's all about homefield advantage. Ball State has it and that should be enough for the Cardinals to move one step closer to being bowl eligible on Saturday afternoon. Lay this short number with confidence. Ball State comes in averaging 40.2 points in their four games at Scheumann Stadium. They lost their last time here, 34-21 to Ohio, so that right there should tell you what they did offensively in the other three. The 40.2 points/game scoring average is well above what the Cardinals average in road games (27.5 points/game). Again, homefield advantage matters. It matters not just for Ball State, but for Central Michigan as well. The Chippewas home vs. road split is even wider than their opposition's. While Central Michigan averages 43.0 points/game at home, they average just 17.0 points/game on the road. The Chippewas have lost four of their five road games this year. The win was over Bowling Green, who is 3-7. In the other three road games, Central Michigan scored 0, 12 and 15 points. Central Michigan is already bowl eligible. Ball State is not. The Cardinals need to win two of the next three games and could be underdogs in the next two. The Cardinals won in Mount Pleasant last year 24-23 as a two-point dog. Play on BALL STATE

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This is a 10* on RICHMOND

Cal State Northridge is having a terrible start to the season. The Matadors are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. The losses have gotten progressively uglier with the latest coming by 46 points against Auburn. They gave up 116 points in that one. So Richmond has to be licking its chops coming into Sunday. The Spiders are 2-0, though those two wins couldn't have been much closer. They beat St. Francis (PA) by two (100-98) and Vanderbilt by one (93-92). Both games went to overtime! The Spiders are going to have to score a lot to cover the spread this afternoon and we think they will. So far they have shot the ball very well. CS-Northridge plays little in the way of defense. CS-Northridge's opponents have shot 53.1% so far. At the same time, they haven't shot very well themselves. This is simply a bad basketball team. These teams have combined to go 0-6 ATS, but it's pretty obvious which is better. All five Richmond starters are averaging more than 10 points/game. Off two tough wins, this will be among the Spiders easiest games of the season. Play RICHMOND

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This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA

You probably remember the last time the Patriots played the Eagles. It was in the Super Bowl two years ago and they lost a memorable game, 41-33, as Doug Pederson was able to do what few have done and that's outcoach Bill Belichick. We'd be kidding ourselves to think that Super Bowl loss won't be on the mind of the Patriots Sunday. But so will a more recent defeat, the one that occurred two weeks ago in Baltimore. It was the first defeat of the year for New England and they pretty well got their "lunch" handed to them by the Ravens, losing 37-20.  Before that, the Patriots defense had been unbelievable. But they've also faced a weak slate of opponents: the Jets twice, Miami, Washington and the Giants to name a few.  Philly is also coming off a bye week, so no advantage for the Patriots there. Before their bye, Philly had won two straight and looked like a team that could win the NFC East. Carson Wentz may not have Alshon Jeffrey at his disposal this week, but he still has TE Zack Ertz and New England's defense struggles to defend tight ends. Ertz had nine catches for 103 yards two weeks ago against Chicago. The Eagles offense can also run the ball effectively.  How about the Philadelphia defense? The last two games have seen them give up just 27 points and 417 yards. Grab the points here with the home dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Atlanta recorded what has to be considered the upset of the year, beating New Orleans last week 26-9 as a 14-point underdog. The Falcons came into that game at 1-7 and had not covered since a Week 2 win against Philadelphia. Having now beaten the likes of Philadelphia and New Orleans, the Falcons should be taken seriously - even at 2-7. This might be a lost season. But the team isn't bad. It's simply underachieved. Consider that they have gained more yards than they've allowed this season!  There was nothing fluky about the win in New Orleans either. What had previously been a non-existent pass rush even decided to show up as the Falcons sacked Drew Brees six times. Carolina's defense has looked real shaky of late. They gave up 51 points to the 49ers a few weeks back and are allowing 25.3 points/game for the year. The last three games have seen them allow 516 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Despite having a better record than Atlanta, the Panthers (5-4) are being outgained this year. Matt Ryan has always had his way with Carolina, beating them 14 times in 22 tries. He and the Falcons are 6-1 the last seven meetings. Half of Atlanta's ATS victories the last two years have come in division games. Kyle Allen started to look like a backup in Carolina's 24-16 loss last week to Green Bay. Our guess is that his regression will continue. We'll take the points with the team that has the edge at QB. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on the UNDER

New Orleans just suffered what has to be the most shocking loss of the NFL season. As a two-touchdown favorite, they fell 26-9 to the Falcons last week. That was at home. They were dominated. Coming off a loss like that, you figure the Saints will be eager to take the field this week. But they are traveling to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that all of a sudden has some confidence following a last minute win over Arizona. Drew Brees is back but this Saints offense doesn't seem right. Last week was the 4th game this year in which they were held to 13 points or less. Some of that was with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But slow starts have been the norm. New Orleans has scored just 25 points in the 1st quarter this year. Eventually that's going to catch up with them. It certainly did last week. Tampa Bay's last seven games have all gone Over. Some of them by a lot. But last week's only went Over when they scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The previous week's game went to overtime. The defense should get better this week with the return of CB Carlton Davis. Down a key offensive lineman (Andrus Peat), don't be shocked if the Saints again struggle to protect Brees. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is #1 in the league at stopping the run. But the Saints can probably count on their own defense in this game. They come in allowing just 20.2 points/game. Play UNDER New Orleans-Tampa Bay 

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