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Will Rogers Will Rogers
After a fine 6-2 start to the week, I took a step back on Wed. winning just my NHL pick. College Hoops continues to be *INSANE*. I'm now on a 26-11-1 run! Overall, I'm +$41,890 and hitting close to 60% L2 months!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Feb 01, 2023
Hurricanes vs Sabres
Hurricanes
-145 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

The Hurricanes have won 6 straight, averaging over 4 goals a game in those wins , which is a step up on their 3.3 goal season's average.  They are on  back to back game tonight, but have a solid record in this situation.  The Hurricanes are an exceptional road team, facing a Sabres team that is below .500 at home.  Carolina is very good on defense and on the PK, and especially good at limiting shots.  They will need to be , since the Sabres are tops in the league on offense.

The Sabres are 5-1 in recent action, and while their offense is down slightly, they appear to be a little more defensively responsible, allowing 3 goals or less in their recent games.  Tage Thompson is day to day, and with the all star break just one day away, he will probably be rested.  It is a hit to the Sabres offense if he is MIA.

In spite of the Sabres being at home and better rested, I am wagering on the 'Canes  tonight.  Carolina is a very streaky team,  on a very solid run.  Raanta, likely starts tonight in net and he has three shutouts in his last 6 starts in spite of infrequent usage.  Take the Hurricanes to steal another road game.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 01, 2023
New Mexico vs Utah State
UNDER 156½ -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Top Premium

The expectation for this game is that New Mexico and Utah State are going to put up a lot of points. I understand that. New Mexico is averaging 82.4 points/game this season while Utah State puts up 79.9. 

 

But I like the Under here. The number is just too high. 

 

Looking through the results, New Mexico has had just one game all season close with a total higher than 156 points. That was January 9th vs. Oral Roberts and it stayed Under.

 

Similarly, Oral Roberts is the only Utah State opponent this season where the total was this high. 

Utah State is #1 in the country in three-point percentage, but can they really continue hitting above 40%? I don’t think so. Meanwhile, with New Mexico, only nine teams in the country take a fewer percentage of total field goal attempts from beyond the arc. 10*

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 01, 2023
Seton Hall vs St. John's
St. John's
+1 -110 at YouWager
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

St. John’s is off a close call where they only beat Georgetown by two points. Had they lost there, it would have been really embarrassing. As it stands, the Johnnies have dropped 7 of 10 overall.

 

But I like them here, at home vs. a Seton Hall team that is off one of its best performances in quite some time. The Pirates just went on the road and beat Butler 70-49. I’m choosing to view that as an “outlier” performance. 

 

Seton Hall had a week off before facing Butler. They’d previously lost at home to Marquette by 21 points. Before that, they’d won two games by a total of five points.

 

Now Seton Hall did take the first meeting with St. John’s by 22 points and is 6-2 SU their last eight games overall. But the Johnnies should amped to avenge that loss here at home where they are 10-3 SU this season.

This one boils down to pace. St. John’s plays at the fourth fastest tempo in the country. That can lead to some bad defensive efforts, but they are averaging almost 80 points/game at home. Seton Hall has three wins by a total of four points this year. If not for those, they’d be an afterthought.  Despite some injury concerns, I like the home team here. 10*

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 01, 2023
Kings vs Spurs
Spurs
+7½ -107 at linepros
Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Here’s another NBA play where we will have to hold our noses. San Antonio has lost six in a row and 11 of their last 12 games. They’ve failed to cover each of the last five times out.

 

But, despite all that, I’m not sure Sacramento (who is playing its third consecutive road game) should be laying this many points.

 

The Kings still carry a bottom 10 defensive rating and have given up more points than they’ve scored on the road this season.

 

They needed overtime to get the “W” on Monday in Minnesota. I think there’s a good chance the Kings “overlook” the Spurs tonight.

Despite all their woes, San Antonio is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games against teams that have winning records. Take the points. 8*

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 01, 2023
#Wizards vs #Pistons
#Pistons
+6 -110 at YouWager
P
Play Type: Top Premium

I guess we’ll have to hold our noses here, but I’ll back Detroit as a home dog. I just think it’s time to fade Washington, who has won and covered six straight games.

 

Over their last three games, the Wizards have beaten Houston, San Antonio and an injury-ravaged New Orleans squad. I’m still not too impressed with a team that’s just 12-16 SU on the road and 7-10 ATS as a favorite. 

 

While the Pistons have dropped 9 of 11 overall, the last two games saw them fall by only three and six points. The most recent loss came in Dallas with Luka Doncic going off for 53 points. Despite that, they were only down two with under two minutes remaining.

 

The Wizards have beaten the Pistons six straight times, but three of those wins were by exactly three points.

At the very worst, I expect this to be a close game. I do think the Pistons have a solid shot at winning outright. This has to be considered the “peak of the market” for Washington, who has not been asked to lay six or more on the road all season. 10* 

SERVICE BIO

Age: 59 

Will Rogers believes that there is always value somewhere, and he wants to help you find it. Rogers is here to serve as your personal guide through the world of sports investing. He will help you navigate through both opportunities and pitfalls with the one goal to help you make money. 

These are some of the many attributes Rogers brings to the table.

Success: A proven winner in every walk of life.

Vision: A laser-like ability to focus on relevant data.     

Resources: A team of proven handicappers.  A vast network of contacts. 

Background

Rogers has worked hard his entire life and he's achieved success at every level. Five years in university. Five years in research. quantitative analysis. Twenty five years in his second passion of running high-end kitchens. He's rubbed shoulders with the rich and big players. Royalty, sometimes. He's built and motivated kitchen brigades. He's taken the heat and he's delivered the product. 

Before committing to sports investing full-time Rogers was working as a trouble shooter.  He was analyzing and resolving issues in failing workplaces. Rogers' career was intense and pressure-filled but he never stopped loving or following sports. With the advent of the Internet, participating in fantasy pools and investing in sports was a natural progression. Success followed. 

Achievements In Handicapping

Rogers officially turned "pro" in 2013. Since then, he's found success in EVERY sport. Right off the bat, his 2013 NHL season was nothing short of phenomenal. He won 67% of ALL plays (for the season!), going 97-48-4 and finishing +$24,786 in net profit! But many consider his most impressive achievement to date to be his incredible performance in the 2014 NFL playoffs. He was 18-3 overall, showing profits of more than +$13,000, and of course he had the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Not to be outdone, in 2015, Rogers put together an outstanding College Football regular season (+$13,944).Most recently, NBA was Rogers' biggest MONEY-MAKER! He just finished the (2016-17) season by going 116-67-6 with sides and on an overall 17-7 playoff run (4-1 Finals).For whatever reason, May has ALWAYS been Rogers "time of year." 2016 saw him turn a $25,358 profit for the month. Incredibly, May of '17 was EVEN MORE PROFITABLE at $27,960.But even though NBA is now over, don't expect the profits to stop ROLLING in. Rogers has been *ON FIRE* throughout the first half of the MLB season!

Money Management/Rating Of Games

Rogers takes a conservative long-term approach to investing on sports.  He has seen too many sharp handicappers done in by mismanaging their money. 

He's not interested in unnecessary risk and/or high volatility. He's confident in his abilities.  But, he keeps his wager sizes to a small percentage of his bankroll and consistent.  He's content in the knowledge that his long-term strategy will produce profits. 

A 10* rated play represents 0.5 percent of his bankroll. 

Systems Used For Handicapping Games

Rogers and his team take pride in their day-to-day knowledge about every team on the board. They have a wide variety of proven handicapping techniques in their arsenal. Knowing when to utilize and employ is key. Quite frankly, methods will vary from day-to-day, sport-to-sport and week-to-week. Nothing works forever. An ability to shift on the fly and to adjust to changing market conditions keeps the Rogers' group ahead of the curve. 

Quote: "Even if you are on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there."