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Bryan Power Bryan Power
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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
Padres vs Giants
+107 at BetVegas
Play Type: Top Premium

10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Padres’ pitching certainly showed up in a major way in the last series, holding the Phillies to just three runs total with two shutouts. While Friday’s starter Sean Manaea has an 0-4 team start record his L4 outings, I think he’s due for a better result here against the Giants. Manaea not only has a 2.70 ERA on the road this season (four starts), his WHIP is 0.862. He had 12 strikeouts his last time out and coming up empty in three straight quality starts suggests to me that Manaea is certainly “due” for a win here.

As I’ve said previously, there is simply no way that the Giants are going to be as profitable as they were last season when they finished with a MLB-best +45 units. They come into this game having won 8 of 11, which has them firmly “in the black,” but almost all those wins came against a Rockies team whose number they’ve had ever since the start of last season. They did lose in Colorado, 5-3, on Thursday. When NOT facing the Rockies, the Giants are just 4-6 this month. They trail San Diego in the standings, despite a superior run differential. While that usually would have me on them, I think the disparity is a sign of things to come. 

Not only does SD have Manaea, who has a 2.72 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in eight career starts vs SF, they have a 14-7 record on the road where they are 5-1-1 in series. Meanwhile, the Giants will send Jake Junis to the bump tonight. Junis began the year in Triple-A and both of his big-league starts came against the Cardinals. His five seasons with the Royals were hardly inspiring as he produced a 29-35 record to go along with a 4.82 ERA and 1.353 WHIP. This is a game the Padres should come in and steal. 10* San Diego

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
Rangers vs Astros
OVER 8½ -115 Lost
Play Type: Top Premium

9* Over Rangers/Astros (8:10 ET): Houston easily won last night’s series opener, 5-1, their second straight game that finished with that exact score. They came out on the losing end against Boston on Wednesday, but this is a series that figures to continue to go the Astros’ way. After all, they are 40-19 the L3 seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and 14-2 their L16 home games vs. the Rangers. But I’m more interested in the total on tonight’s game as this should be a lot higher scoring compared to last night. You can watch on Apple TV! 

Houston’s pitching has obviously been outstanding this year, but Cristian Javier (Friday’s starter) doesn’t have much to do with that. In three starts, Javier has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He gave up seven runs in his last start, a game the Astros ended up losing 13-6 to the Nationals. While Javier only allowed two runs in five innings when he faced the Rangers back in April, and has consistently fared well against them in the past, the Rangers’ left-handed heavy lineup should consistently make contact and hit the ball hard off Javier tonight. Texas had scored 6+ runs in four straight games coming into this series.

Houston has scored at least five runs in eight of its last 10 games and averaged 6.0 rpg in its last seven contests. Now Martin Perez gets the baseball here for the Rangers and not only has he been sharp recently (2-0, 0.84 ERA L5 starts), his 2.84 career ERA vs. Houston (15 starts) is his lowest versus any opponent. But I’ll call for some regression here as I’m not sure I see Perez going 6+ innings a sixth straight time. Note that both teams have seen their L7 games average more than 10 runs. 9* Over Rangers/Astros

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
#White Sox vs #Yankees
-200 at Mirage
Play Type: Top Premium

6* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Both these teams played yesterday afternoon with the Yankees losing to the Orioles (a surprise!) and the White Sox defeating the Royals. Despite those respective results, the Yankees are a clear play on Friday. The White Sox are a team you’ll want to look to fade, possibly all weekend, as they’re drastic overachievers with a .500 record despite a -27 run differential. The Yankees, in case you hadn’t heard, lead the American League with a 28-10 record and +72 run differential. Before losing yesterday, the Pinstripes had taken the first three games of that Baltimore series. They are 7-2 off a loss this season. 

This will be the second weekend in a row that these teams are matching up. Last weekend on the South Side of Chicago, the White Sox were able to walk away with a surprising split. Dallas Keuchel won his start for them, by tossing five shutout innings of four-hit ball. I find the notion of Keuchel beating the Yanks in B2B starts to be a rather unlikely scenario. Through his six starts this year, Keuchel has a 5.88 ERA and 1.962 WHIP. Now numbers are skewed due to a disastrous performance in Cleveland where he was charged with 10 runs in ONE inning! But still, these are the Yankees he’s facing. 

The White Sox are 3-9 as underdogs this season with six of those losses coming by multiple runs. They are also just 2-8 since the start of last season vs. New York. Tough to like their chances here against Nestor Cortes, who like Keuchel, won his start in last weekend’s series. Cortes did so by going eight innings and allowing just one run on three hits. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in all seven starts this year and just seven runs total. As the odds indicate, this series opener is a total mismatch as the Yankees are the better team here in every area. 6* NY Yankees

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 20, 2022
Diamondbacks vs Cubs
+129 at Ace
Play Type: Top Premium

9* Arizona (2:20 ET): It didn’t take much offense for the D’backs to defeat the Cubs in the series opener on Thursday (just three runs), so I figure that with them likely to score more today, another victory is on the horizon. The win on Thursday stopped a six-game slide for Arizona, but remember they are no longer facing the Dodgers, who were responsible for four of those six losses. Now the Cubs were responsible for the other two, but this series looks to be headed in a different direction than the last one.

On the periphery, today’s starting pitching matchup seems to be pretty even, but I believe Arizona has the edge. The Cubs have hit just .203 their L7 games, so look for them to struggle against Humberto Castellanos, who has a 2.76 ERA and 0.919 WHIP his L3 starts. Castellanos was a bit of a “hard luck loser” against the Cubs last week as he gave up two solo shots, but those were the only runs he allowed in 5 ⅓ innings. He actually did not factor into the final decision, which was a Cubs’ 3-2 win. The Cubs have been struggling to hit righties this month and several players are missing from the lineup right now. 

Kyle Hendricks starts today for the Cubs. He has a higher ERA and WHIP than Castellanos. He’s had three starts so far where he allowed 4+ ER and two where he gave up six. Hendricks was able to outduel Zac Gallen when he faced Arizona last week, giving up only one run in 5 ⅔ IP. But Hendricks’ lack of strikeouts this season should be a concern. He’s struck out only two batters in four of his previous five outings. The Cubs do have a positive run differential (+2 YTD), but that’s misleading and a byproduct from several massive wins over the lowly Pirates. Take Arizona to win here. 9* Arizona

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  May 20, 2022
Roma vs Torino
+110 at linepros
Play Type: Top Premium

10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): Roma can clinch a spot in next season’s Europa League with a win today in their final Serie A match of the season. Sure, if things don’t work out, Jose Mourinho’s side will get a “second chance” at the 2022/23 Europa League if they defeat Feyenoord in next week’s Europa Conference League Final. But why risk it? They’d also like to head into next week’s Final with SOME momentum as Roma has actually not won in Serie A since April 10th, a streak of five consecutive matches. Last week was a very disappointing 1-1 draw with last place Venezia. I say Roma ends its Serie A campaign on a “high note.” 

Torino has had a solid season and done well when I’ve taken them, but they have nothing to play for here on this final matchday. The Bull should be quite satisfied with where they are currently at (10th in the table) considering the last two seasons brought 16th and 17th place finishes. Depending how this weekend’s results shake out, Torino could finish anywhere from 9th to 11th. A top 10 finish sounds nice for a side that’s only lost one time since April, but their opponents are going to come in as the more motivated of the two sides on Friday. 

I mentioned the disappointing draw for Roma last week. They missed TWO penalties. Venezia also was a man down (red card) from the 32nd minute on. The only goal Roma conceded came in the opening minute, which always feels like a “fluke.” Bottom line is it was a match Roma SHOULD have won. They absolutely dominated possession and shots on goal. Conceding early goals has actually been a problem in the L2 matches, but won’t be here as Roma blanked Torino 1-0 in the reverse back in November. Torino will be missing a number of players due to injury today. 10* AS Roma

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 21, 2022
Twins vs Royals
+1½ -130 at William Hill
Play Type: Top Premium

8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Royals +1.5. The first four meetings between these AL Central rivals this season have all been decided by two runs or fewer. Last night, it was the Twins picking up the 6-4 victory. The Royals took two of three in the previous series (also here in KC), so while they are (badly) lagging behind Minnesota in the standings (8.5 games back), they have shown they can compete with them. Sooner or later, you’ve got to figure these surprising Twins are going to come back “down to Earth.”

This looks like a pretty even pitching matchup, at least on paper, with Brad Keller opposing Joe Ryan. It would seem very unfortunate that Keller has just one win in seven starts as he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.008 WHIP. At home, the numbers are even better. The team start record boils down to the fact that the Royals are barely scoring three runs per game in Keller starts. Eventually, that “worm has to turn.” Last time out, Keller again did not get the win, but it was the fifth time in seven outings he went at least six innings and allowed three runs or less (aka a “quality start.”) Keller did not pitch in the last series vs. Minnesota, but does have a 3.20 ERA in nine career starts against them.

Ryan’s numbers are slightly better than Keller’s. He also did toss six shutout innings here at Kauffman Stadium last month, a game the Twins won 1-0. But recently, Ryan has struggled a little bit, failing to go a full five innings in two of his last three starts. He’s coming off a career-high 103 pitches against Cleveland last Sunday. It remains to be seen how a rookie fares off an outing like that. At the end of the day, this looks like a really even matchup to me and it’s nice to have an additional 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5)

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 21, 2022
Braves vs Marlins
+130 at Caesars
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Miami (6:10 ET): The Marlins probably aren’t the main focus of the Miami sports scene this evening, but they’re a good value at home facing the division rival Braves. Now Atlanta did come in and take the series opener on Friday, by a score of 5-3, but that was largely thanks to another ineffective start from Miami’s Trevor Rogers, who was charged with all five runs. The Marlins’ bullpen didn’t allow any runs over its five innings of work and the home team ended up with more hits than the Braves did. Atlanta is still a bit overvalued due to winning the World Series last year and I think Miami is better than its record.

After last night’s result, the Braves are now one-half game ahead of the Marlins in the NL East standings (they have one more win). But run differential paints a much different picture of the two clubs. Atlanta has been outscored by 11 runs on the season. Miami has a +17 run differential. Their 12 one-run losses (easily the most in baseball) have really hurt as no team has underachieved its win expectancy more. Look for their luck to turn however, especially at home where they are somehow 9-11 despite having outscored their opposition by a fairly significant margin. 

Getting the baseball for Miami this evening will be Elieser Hernandez. It has not been a great start to the year for Hernandez, but Atlanta is hitting just .211 on the road thus far and .208 in games where they face a right-handed starter. Hernandez has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Braves since the start of last season. With him on the mound last month, the Marlins beat the Braves as a +145 underdog (even though Hernandez didn’t pitch very well). I expect him to outduel Kyle Wright in this spot as Wright is only two starts removed from getting shelled for six runs. Miami has done a lot more hitting than Atlanta recently and I expect the offense to carry Hernandez in this one. 10* Miami

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 21, 2022
Heat vs Celtics
UNDER 207½ -110
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Heat/Celtics (8:30 ET): The expectation was that the Eastern Conference Finals would be pretty low-scoring. After all, Boston led the league in scoring defense (104.5 PPG) during the regular season and has been even stingier in the playoffs (103.1 PPG allowed). Not to be overlooked is the fact the Under was 8-2-1 in Miami playoff games in Rounds 1 and 2 with them turning in the second best defensive efficiency rating during that time. The Heat have allowed an average of just 100.5 PPG in the postseason. That’s even after the first two games saw way more points scored than what was expected. 

With these two teams combining to go 14-0 Over in their L14 Conference Finals games, I think that it’s time to go “the other way” here in Game 3. Boston shot 51% in Game 2 and made 20 threes, numbers they probably can’t hope to match tonight. For a frame of reference, the Celtics shot 45.6% in Game 1 and made only 11 threes. Save for the third quarter of Game 1, they really have looked like the better team in this series. That dubious third quarter is the only quarter in the two games where the Celtics were outscored. (Teams were even in the third and fourth in Game 2). I just don’t think we’re going to see the same amount of scoring from Boston, especially in the first half, tonight. 

Miami shot just 29.4% from three-point range in the last game. They’ll likely improve from that, but not by enough to affect the total. I expect this game to be played at a slower pace. The Celtics have allowed 103 points or fewer in six of their last nine games. The Heat have allowed 103 or less in 7 of their last 10 games. I think for tonight, the winning team may only need 100. Miami has not allowed 100+ points in three straight games during these playoffs. This is the highest O/U line of the series. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  May 21, 2022
Empoli vs Atalanta
UNDER 4 -130 Won
Play Type: Top Premium

10* Under Empoli/Atalanta (2:45 ET): Atalanta enters the final matchday of their Serie A season in desperate need of a result. They are tied with Fiorentina (both at 59 points) but lose the tiebreaker based on head to head points. That means Atalanta must finish ahead of La Viola in order to qualify for the Europa Conference League, a spot that only opened up because the winners of the Coppa Italia (Inter) had already qualified for the Champions League, so the corresponding Europa League spot is then passed down to the sixth place finisher (clinched by Roma) on Friday.

If Fiorentina loses to Juventus on Saturday, then a draw will suffice here for Atalanta. La Dea may not want to leave that to chance though. Still, I suspect this fixture will be lower scoring than the reverse, which saw Atalanta prevail 4-1. Empoli has endured a simply dreadful run of form lately, winning just ONCE in their last 21 matches! That run has seen them slip only to 14th in the table, well clear of the relegation zone, which last year’s Serie B champs will gladly take as the only goal this season was to survive and remain in the Italian top flight. Last week, Empoli could only muster a 1-1 draw with relegation-threatened Salernitana. 

Now Atalanta’s recent form hasn’t been so great either, which is why they are in this predicament. They’ve posted only two wins in their last 10 matches and those victories came against Spezia and Venezia, two bottom of the table sides, the latter having already been relegated. Atalanta couldn’t even get on the scoresheet last week vs. AC Milan, losing 2-0. Goal differential does not matter to La Dea here, all they need is one goal and then try to hold Empoli off for the three points. Not sure if Fiorentina will cooperate, but the task at hand seems rather easy for Atalanta this week. 10* Under Empoli/Atalanta

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  May 21, 2022
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg
RB Leipzig
+102 at linepros
Play Type: Top Premium

10* RB Leipzig (2:00 ET): Though the Bundesliga season has concluded, we’re not yet quite done with German football in 2021/22. Thursday saw me cash the 1st leg of the promotion/relegation playoff with Hamburg SV. Now we’ve got the Final of the DFB Pokal, the second most prestigious club title in all of Germany, between Freiburg and RB Leipzig. Considering the respective ends to the Bundesliga season for these two sides, I think there’s only one way to play this one. I just can’t see how Freiburg “gets up” after an extremely disappointing final matchday. 

If you don’t know, Leipzig finished 4th and Freiburg 6th in the Bundesliga table. That means Leipzig is going to the Champions League next season while Freiburg is stuck in the less prestigious Europa League. Freiburg was in fourth with two matches left, but picked up zero points down the stretch, losing  to Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen, the latter being decided by a goal in the seventh minute of stoppage time. That coincided with Leipzig getting a stoppage time equalizer against Arminia Bielefeld to ensure it finished top four. 

Despite these clubs playing to a pair of 1-1 draws during the Bundesliga season and finishing only three points apart, I think there’s a strong argument that Leipzig is vastly superior. They were second in the Bundesliga in expected points (Freiburg was 6th) and Leipzig had the far better goal differential. In fact, Leipzig was also second in GD (+35) while Freiburg was only +12. This will be the first time in club history that Freiburg is playing for the German Cup while Leipzig is here for the third time in the last four years (lost previous two). Freiburg also only had to get past a second tier side (Hamburg SV) in the semifinals while Leipzig vanquished Union Berlin. Freiburg hasn’t beaten Leipzig in any of the previous five meetings and Leipzig was as good as any Bundesliga side in 2022. 10* RB Leipzig 


The time has come for Bryan Power to EXPAND! Having achieved a tremendous amount of success, Power is expanding his reach in 2015 as he proudly announces the formation of Power Sports Picks (that's "PSP" for short). Power Sports Picks promises to deliver the same quality analysis (and same amount of winning) as before, only now with a FULL TEAM assembled, the SKY IS THE LIMIT!