ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming Cowboys (+) over Utah State Aggies, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #353

Not only is Wyoming 6-3 SU and ATS on the season, the 3 SU losses the Cowboys have all came by 4 or less points. Out of 9 games this season no one has soundly beaten Wyoming and that includes the Broncos last week in a game played at Boise State. The Cowboys, with back-up QB Tyler Vander Waal, nearly pulled off the outright upset as a 2 TD+ dog at Boise last week. There has been a different "feel" in the Wyoming locker room this season and this team just gives it all they have week after week in terms of their effort no matter the situation. With that being said, we certainly look for the Cowboys to give the Aggies all they can handle this week. Utah State is off an upset win at Fresno State last week so this sets up perfectly. Prior to that win over the Bulldogs, the Aggies had lost 3 of 4 games and the 3 losses all came by big margins. Those 3 losses for Utah State featured an average margin of defeat of 29 points per game! Last season the Cowboys got the ATS cover for the 3rd straight time in this series with the Aggies but Wyoming did lose the game SU at home even though they held a 331 to 194 yardage edge! It was a fluke final score and the Cowboys now have a score to settle with Utah State in this season's rematch. Aggies QB Love is highly touted but he has more INTs than TDs this season and has struggled badly in his two career meetings with the Cowboys as well. Wyoming's pass defense has been a strength again this season and Love has 4 INT's and 0 TD's in his two career games against the Cowboys D. On the other side of the ball, Wyoming relies heavily on their ground game and should enjoy some success on the ground here. The Aggies front seven on defense suffered a major blow with the loss of linebacker David Woodward. Already without a senior defensive lineman (Fua Leilua) that was expected to be a key contributor this season, the loss of Woodward is huge. He had 134 tackles last season and already had 93 this season. The Cowboys take advantage and QB Vander Waal certainly had a respectable game against a tough 8-1 Boise State team last week. All it takes is a little success with the aerial attack (like he had last week) to open things up even more for the ground game! On that note, Utah State has allowed 275 rushing yards per game the past 3 weeks. Per our computer math model, the Aggies defense gets run on big in this game too and once again Love has another bad game against a Cowboys pass defense that has given him fits each of the past two years. More of the same here and we'll bet this game with the points but we don't expect to need them! Grab the points with Wyoming as a road dog in afternoon action Saturday.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Texas Longhorns (+) over Iowa State Cyclones, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET: Game #377

We were on Texas last week and felt we should have covered that game but that’s the way things go sometimes in this gambling biz. KSU jumped out to a 14-0 lead on the Horns after their first 2 offensive possessions. The Cats had 138 yards and 14 points on their first 2 possessions and after that the Texas defense really played well allowing just 3 points (the only other TD for KSU was 98 yard kickoff return) and just 166 yards the remainder of the game. The Longhorn offense averaged 7.3 YPP on nearly 500 total yards vs a very solid KSU defense. The Horns outgained the Cats by 130 yards in the game. Again, the 98 yard kickoff return after Texas went up 10 in the 4th quarter was the killer. We felt the Texas defense, which hadn’t been playing well heading into last week, would be much better as a number of key players on that side of the ball returned to action after their bye the previous week. They did play very well and we expect that to continue. This team is a bit undervalued right now in our opinion. As for ISU, we’re not sure how they get up off the floor so to speak. They went to Oklahoma last week and rallied late from 21 points down in the 3rd quarter only to lose 42-41 when they failed on a 2-point conversion going for the win in the final seconds. That’s going to be very tough to rebound from. The physical and emotional energy used in that comeback only to fall short should have an affect here. The Cyclones have simply found a way to lose close games this year (4 losses each by 7 points or less) and we see this one playing out in a similar fashion. Their home field hasn’t been great this year as they’ve already lost outright here vs Iowa and Oklahoma State and barely beat Northern Iowa in OT. The Horns have owned this series as of late winning each of the last 3 seasons and ISU has NEVER been favored over Texas and now they are laying a full TD. We like Texas to keep this game close and we’ll grab the points.

ASA PLAY ON 9* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) over Minnesota Golden Gophers, Saturday at 4 PM ET: Game #336

As we’ve mentioned before in our write ups throughout the season, there is a reason the 6-3 Iowa Hawkeyes are favored over the 9-0 Minnesota Gophers. This line of -3 suggests that despite the records, Iowa and Minnesota are even teams on a neutral field. As we expected, the bettors have flocked to the undefeated dog here with nearly 70% of the wagers currently on Minnesota. Despite that the line has not dropped at all and we expect Iowa to get the win and cover at home here. We realize this is a rivalry game, however this is simply a terrible spot for Minnesota. After playing one of the easiest schedules in America leading up to last week, they finally had their big game. It was a home game vs PSU that the Gophs had been pointing to for at least a month. A game to prove their doubters wrong. They did pick up a 31-26 win but they were outgained by Penn State, had fewer first downs and benefitted from 3 crucial interceptions by Lion QB Clifford. Two of those interceptions led to 14 Gopher points and the third was thrown in the endzone late in the game as PSU was looking for the go ahead score. After a game that was hyped as Minnesota’s biggest home game in over a decade, we can’t see the Gophs playing that well again a week later on the road. This team has played only 2 Big Ten road games this year (@ Purdue & @ Rutgers) and the most recent was nearly a month ago. Now they face an angry Iowa team that lost 24-22 @ Wisconsin last week. The Hawkeyes are a very solid team and not far from having an outstanding record as their 3 losses (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn St) have come by a combined 14 points. The Hawkeye offense has struggled against top notch defenses, the teams listed above, but Minnesota’s stop unit is not in that category. PSU put up over 500 yards last week and we expect Iowa to have success offensively on Saturday. Minnesota had been running through poor defenses heading into last week, however PSU actually shut their rushing attack down quite well allowing only 120 yards on the ground. Minny QB Morgan saved them with a career game (more TD’s (3) than incompletions (2) and we don’t see that happening again on the road. Iowa’s rush defense will come in hungry after Wisconsin ran all over them last week. Prior to that the Iowa defense has allowed only 89 YPG on the ground and we look for them to really slow down Minnesota’s running game again this week. We also don’t expect Morgan to go off for another career type game. Let’s also remember this is a young Minnesota team consisting of mainly freshman and sophomores playing key roles so responding on the road after last week might be too much to ask. Iowa City has been a house of horrors for the Gophers as their last win here was way back in 1999. We’ll call for Iowa to win by more than a FG.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* UNDER: Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET: Game #390

The Tigers have scored a total of just 21 points in their last 3 games. Not only is Missouri scoring an average of just 7 points in games played since mid-October, the Tigers D has truly stepped up this season. Missouri had a tough season opener but their defense has allowed an average of just 17 points per game since then. On Saturday, the Tigers host a Florida team that, similar to Missouri, has seen their defense slip up just once this season. That lone slip-up for the Gators was against LSU and these Tigers are certainly not those Tigers! Against Missouri, the Gators should enjoy plenty of success on the defensive side of the ball just like they have in their other 9 games this season that were not against LSU. In those 9 games Florida has allowed an average of only 12 points per game! You can see why we like the Gators defense here against a struggling Missouri offense. As for the flip side, look for the Florida offense to quickly come back down to earth after their thrashing of Vanderbilt last week. For defensive efficiency this season the Commodores rank 124th in the nation! Now this week the Gators are on the road and facing a Tigers defense that ranks in the top 10 in the nation for defensive efficiency as Missouri is allowing an average of only 4.5 yards per play! The under has cashed in 5 of 6 times when Florida enters a game off an SEC win by a double digit margin. Missouri has been trending under all season long including 7 of their last 8 games finishing under the total. Bet the UNDER in this very early Saturday match-up.

ASA 8* PLAY ON Washington -1 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

In a battle of 2 bad teams, we’ll side with the host here.  As of this writing, well over 70% of the tickets have come in on the Jets yet this line hasn’t budged off the -2 opener.  In fact, a few spots pushed the opposite direction and went to Washington -2.5 which means the heavy money is coming in on the Skins.  The percentages on this game are very similar to last Sunday’s Jets vs Giants game when everyone was on the Giants (70% plus) and the Jets won the game.  The Jets broke out offensively scoring 34 points however coming into the game they had scored only 8 TD’s in their first 7 games.  We expect them to resort back to their old offensive form here against a Washington defense that has been playing fairly solid allowing just 17 PPG over their last 4.  Offensively we realize the Skins have struggled over the last month or so, however they’ve also faced some very tough defensive teams.  They have played New England, Minnesota, Buffalo, and San Francisco, 4 of the top defenses in the NFL, all since the start of October.  We look for Washington to play much better on offense here vs a Jets defense that has given up 28.2 PPG since mid September.  Situationally, Washington is off a bye while the Jets are coming off a huge game vs cross town rival Giants.  New York is a terrible 0-9-1 ATS the last 10 times they’ve faced a team coming off a bye.  Make that 0-10-1 ATS as we like Washington to win and cover this one.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Houston +4.5 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore has become a bit too public since beating New England a few weeks ago and we feel this line is too high.  Houston is coming off a bye and they absolutely are good enough to win this game outright and the points at +4.5 are giving us some nice cushion if Baltimore does win.  Houston is 3-1 in road games including a win @ KC when the Chiefs had QB Mahomes at 100%.  The Texans dominated that game outgained the potent Chiefs by 163 yards.  The Houston defense allows just 84 YPG rushing (3rd best in the NFL) which matches up very well with what Baltimore likes to do on offense and that is run the ball.  In order to beat this Baltimore team, you need to slow down their running game and force QB Lamar Jackson to try and win through the air.  We think Houston can do just that.  Baltimore has been very good in the underdog role but they are just 2-4 ATS this year when favored.  Let’s not forget that before they beat New England, the Ravens lost at home to Cleveland by 15 points and picked up close wins vs both Cincinnati & Arizona.  The Texans are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they’ve won all 3 of those games outright.  Even when Houston loses, it tends to be a close game.  In fact, since Deshaun Watson took over as the starting QB in 2017, Houston has lost 11 games with him under center and all were by 8 points or less.  We think this one goes to the wire and we’ll take the generous points.  

ASA 8* PLAY ON New Orleans -5 over Tampa Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Sports handicapping 101 dictates looking at good teams off a loss or bad teams off an upset win. We get both in this game with the Saints off an upset home loss to Atlanta in which they played terribly and the Bucs off beating Arizona. The last time the Saints were off a loss this year they went to Seattle as a 5-point dog and won outright. They then ripped off 6 straight wins which included a 7-point win over this same Tampa Bay team. The final score in that first meeting is somewhat misleading as they Saints outgained the Bucs 457 to 252 total yards. This Saints team is quietly being overlooked in the NFC but are clearly one of the best teams in the Conference. New Orleans has already won three road games this season against better teams than Tampa, who really doesn’t have much of a home field advantage (3rd lowest attendance). Tampa has already lost at home to Carolina, the Giants and San Francisco and are off a win over 3-6-1 Arizona. The Bucs have 21-turnovers this season and 4+ in the last three games. QB Winston has 14 INT’s on the season and a habit of throwing it to the other team. The kicker here is the Bucs pass defense that is last in the NFL facing Drew Bree’s and Michael Thomas and a top ten passing offense.