#963/964 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 10.5 Runs – Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays, Thursday at 7:07 PM ET – These two pitchers have big ERA numbers on the season but that hides how well their more recent outings have been and we have a big number to work with here.  Anthony Kay's two most recent home starts have seen him allow a total of just 2 earned runs on 5 hits in 8 innings of work!  He'll take advantage of facing an Orioles team that got shut out the plate yesterday and that was at home.  Now this Baltimore club has taken to the road where they have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of last 12 games!  So the Orioles traveled to Buffalo for this game after playing in Baltimore last night and the Blue Jays were in an even tougher travel situation as they came all the way from down south in Miami where they played last night.  Certainly there could be some "sleepy bats" at the plate for this one and Toronto will face an improving Dean Kremer in this one.  Like Kay, he has a high ERA on the season but has shown improvement in recent outings.  Kremer, in fact, had a stint at AAA Norfolk that has seemed to turn him around.  He gave up only 3 hits in 8 and 2 / 3 innings in 2 outings there earlier this month.  Now, after returning to the Orioles, Kremer has given up only 7 hits in 11 and 1 / 3 innings and that includes a solid start versus the Blue Jays in his most recent outing.  Toronto has lost 5 of the last 6 home games and averaged scoring only 3 runs per game in the 5 defeats.  That said, all signs point to an under here.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 8 to 9 runs and even if it reaches 10 that is still a winning ticket based on the 10.5 that is posted at most books as of late morning Thursday.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 221 Phoenix Suns @ L.A. Clippers, Game 3 Thursday 9 PM ET - Game 1 finished with 234 total points which forced the oddsmakers to adjust the Total up from 220 in the opener to 224 in Game 2. Now in Game 3 we are back in the 220 range. In Game 1 these two teams combined for just 177 field goal attempts which is right around league average, so the pace of play was not the driving force for the higher score. Exceptional shooting impacted this outcome and forced the game Over the Total. The Suns hit 55% of their field goal attempts and made 13 of 32 3-pointers or 41%. Phoenix shot 49% on the season and 37.8% from beyond the arc, both lower than what they shot in Game 1. The Suns weren’t the only team shooting well in G1 as the Clippers made 45% of their FGA’s and hit 20 of 47 3’s or 43%. The Clippers attempted 47 3-pointers which is 12 more than they averaged during the regular season. In Game two we had a much slower tempo than Game 1 as these two teams attempted just 160 total field goal attempts. The Suns shot well again at 50% overall while the Clippers hit 45%. In Game 2 these two clubs combined for less than 51-points in three of the four quarters. As we mentioned in our previous analysis. The three regular season meetings between these two teams finished with 210, 216 and 219 Total points and Game 2 finished with 207. We see another defensive struggle with a low scoring affair.