#808 ASA PLAY ON Texas A&M -11 over LSU, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - Great spot for A&M at home here as they are coming off back to back losses vs Alabama and Kentucky.  The Aggies took Bama to the wire at home before losing 94-88 and they lost @ KY on Wednesday night.  A&M played both of those games without leading scorer and future NBA guard Wade Taylor (16 PPG and 5 APG).  Taylor was not listed on the injury report on Friday evening so we’d have to assume he’s going to be back in the lineup on Saturday which is a huge boost to this team.  With Taylor in the lineup the Aggies are 12-2 including wins over Texas, Purdue, Ohio State, and Texas Tech, all top 30 teams.  They are 8-1 at home with their only loss coming vs Alabama (with Taylor out) and all of their 8 wins have come by double digits.  A&M has a 13-4 overall record (2 losses without Taylor) and they’ve faced the 10th most difficult schedule in the country this season.  LSU, on the other hand, has faced the 164th most difficult schedule and they have a worse record at 12-5.  The Tigers have played 4 true road games, lost 3 of those games (all by double digits) and their only road win was @ Kansas State (7-9 record) who is the 2nd lowest rated team in the Big 12.  LSU has faced 6 teams currently in KenPom’s top 60 and they’ve lost 5 of those games, all by at least 8 points.  Their lone win in that category was at home vs Arkansas on Tuesday night (78-74 final score) and the Razors are in a freefall right now as they’ve lost 4 straight and sit in last place in the SEC.  Now they travel to A&M who is the 2nd highest rated team the Tigers have faced this season (#19 per KenPom).  The Aggies have far better efficiency numbers on both ends of the court (including #12 nationally in defensive efficiency) and they are the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation.  That’ll be a huge problem for LSU that ranks outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding.  The Tigers also turn the ball over 19% of the time (273rd nationally) so between that and A&M’s offensive rebounding prowess, the Aggies should get plenty of extra possessions tonight.  A&M is 2-2 in SEC play and they have road games @ Ole Miss and @ Texas their next 2 tilts making this a must win.  We look for the Aggies to win this one going away.

#662 ASA PLAY ON Duquesne +2 over St Bonaventure, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Duquesne is very undervalued right now due to their overall record which is 8-9.  However, 8 of their 9 losses came by December 11th or earlier and this team is now on a 6-1 run with their only loss during that stretch coming @ Davidson by 6.  The Dukes lost their first 6 games of the season as they were adjusting to a new head coach and had some guys miss games early.  Since December 11th, Duquesne ranks as the top team in the Atlantic 10 Conference and 31st overall nationally per Bart Torvik Analytics.  During that stretch they rank 39th nationally in offensive efficiency and 50th in defensive efficiency.  Their opponent tonight St Bonnie ranks as the 4th best team in the A10 during that stretch yet they are laying points on the road in this game because their record is much better overall.  The Bonnies have played a very easy schedule to date (256th SOS) and they only have 3 losses on the season, however 2 of those losses have come in the last 11 days.  They are 1-2 their last 3 games and their win came at home vs Richmond (ranked 215th) and the Spiders played that game without their leading scorer.  The Dukes have the rest advantage as well as they had a week off prior to their win on Wednesday @ George Washington who came into that home game with a record of 13-3.  St Bonnies, on the other hand, is playing their 4th game in 11 days. Two teams heading in opposite directions and we love the value with Duquesne as a home dog here.  Take the points.

#388 ASA PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8 over Houston Texans, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - The Chiefs are as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season for this one. They sat key starters in the final week of the regular season and then had last week off. KC has their entire starting defense available for the first time since week 7 and their entire starting offense is also healthy with the exception of WR Rice. While the did struggle to cover the spread this season despite their 15-2 SU record, the Chiefs played much better down the stretch covering 3 straight winning those games by 14, 8 and 29 points (minus the season finale @ Denver where none of their regulars played). We expect the best version of Kansas City at home on Saturday. Houston is coming off a win as a home dog last week beating the Chargers 32-12 with the Texans benefitting from 4 LAC interceptions including a pick 6. Since 2011, teams that win in the Wildcard round as an underdog are just 2-20 SU in the Divsional round so not a great spot for Houston. Let’s face it, the Texans were pretty darn average all season. They finished 10-7 but played in the weakest division in football (all other teams below .500) and their point differential on the year was +0. They beat 1 team all regular season that finished the year with a winning record and they were 1-5 SU vs playoff teams. It’s going to be cold in KC on Saturday afternoon (windchill around 10 degrees) and dome teams simply haven’t played well in that situation with a 2-7 SU record when temps are below 30 degrees. KC beat this Houston team by 8 a few weeks ago, and now that they are rested and healthy, we’ll call for a double digit win on Saturday.

#680 ASA FREE PLAY ON UL Monroe +2 over Louisiana, Saturday at 3 PM ET - Two bad teams going at it here but we feel ULM is a very solid play as a home dog. These 2 met last Saturday @ Louisiana and the host won the game 71-68. The Rajin Cajuns largest lead of the game was just 4 points while ULM blew an 11 point lead in the 2nd half. ULL made 11 three pointers in that tight win while ULM made only 5 so we had an 18 point difference in favor of the Rajin Cajuns from beyond the arc and they still only won by 3 at home. Louisiana led for just 10 of the 40 minutes of game time in that win one week ago. Both these teams rank near the bottom of the Sun Belt in conference play in offensive and defensive efficiency which isn’t surprising as ULM has 4 wins on the season and ULL has 5. However, Monroe’s stats at home have been much better than their road marks shooting 45% overall and 35% from deep. Compare that with Louisiana’s road marks of 37% overall and 23% from beyond the arc and we should not only have distinct advantages on the court and situationally with ULM in this game. On top of that, Monroe played here on Wednesday and lost to Troy (3rd highest rated team in the Sun Belt) while Louisiana played on Thursday night @ Arkansas State and lost by 20 so an extra day for the Warhawks. We had a similar situation last year when ULL won at home in a tight game (by 8) and then traveled to UL Monroe and lost by 6 as a road favorite. We like Monroe to win this game at home.