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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 20, 2024
76ers vs Knicks
Knicks
-155 at SC Consensus
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

ASA play on NY Knicks ML (-155) vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 6 PM ET - The 76ers with Joel Embiid barely survived against the Heat in the Play-In game and if it weren’t for a 3-point barrage by Batum (6) they wouldn’t be here right now. Embiid did not look good and is clearly out of shape after the long layoff from his injury. The Knicks also have the perfect team to attack Embiid who plays drop cover defensively in the pick-n-rolls as they can space the floor with effective shooters. The home crowd will be a big factor today as the Knicks are 27-14 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +5.9PPG. Home teams in G1 are on a 55-25 SU run in the first round of the playoffs. Much has been said about the Knicks missing Julius Randall, but we don’t feel it’s a huge factor as they have two big bodies in Hartenstein and Robinson to wear down Embiid. Another big key for New York is that they have OG Anunoby back on the court. The Knicks are 20-3 SU with Anunoby in the lineup this season. NY is 7th in offensive efficiency compared to the 76ers who sit 13th. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Knicks hold an advantage there too ranking 9th versus 11th. New York won 3 of four against the Sixers this season and we expect them to win Game 1 on Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 20, 2024
Marlins vs Cubs
Cubs
-140 at linepros
Lost
$140.0
Play Type: Premium

(Game ONE of double-header) #954 ASA PLAY ON Chicago Cubs -140 over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - The Marlins, along with White Sox and Rockies, continue to have one of the worst records in the league early this season.  That being said, we look for value spots to fade teams like these and this is another one here.  The Marlins are starting Jesus Luzardo in the early game Saturday at Chicago.  Luzardo has a long-term reputation that commands some respect in the betting markets and in a spot like this that results in a line being lower than it should be.  This line on the Cubs is in a bargain price range in the -140 range as of overnight hours.  Luzardo has struggled so far this season with a 7.65 ERA and he also walked 5 in only 4.2 innings in his only road start.  He has given up 5 homers in his 4 starts and, overall, has been hit much harder than usual.  Chicago is 6-1 at home this season while the Marlins are an ugly 4-16 overall this season even with a home-heavy schedule early this season.  The Cubs have the hitting edge in this match-up as the Marlins continue to struggle to score runs.  Miami's struggles are expected to continue versus Javier Assad.  He has been tough to hit early this season and also is piling up strikeouts.  If you look at the Marlins last 11 losses, a recent one was a high-scoring 9-7 defeat but Miami has scored an average of only 1.9 runs in the other 10 defeats.  This team just can not get it going at the plate early this season.  The Cubs, on the other hand, are hitting .294 at home this season which ranks them #1 in the majors and they are scoring an average of 7.4 runs at Wrigley Field!  Cubs get the call in Game 1 of this double-header Saturday.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 20, 2024
Suns vs Wolves
UNDER 214½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 214.5 Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves, 3:30 PM ET - This is going to be a heated series and we expect this first game to be dominated by the defenses. These two met in the regular season finale and the O/U on that game was 216.5. The Suns won that game 125-106, an easy Over. So why did the oddsmaker adjust this number lower than that previous game? Digging deeper we find the combined field goal attempts by both teams (156) well below the league average of 177 per game. The main reason the game eclipsed the number was a great night of shooting by both teams. The Suns hit 55% overall and went 16-29 from the 3PT line for 55%. We expect a regression here as the Suns shot 49.3% on the season and 38.2% from Deep. Not to mention the Wolves have the #1 FG% defense in the NBA and rank 7th in opponents 3PT%. In that most recent game, the Wolves shot 51% and made 25 of 31 FT attempts. The Suns have the 8th best FG% D in the league and the Wolves rank 10th in team field goal percentage. This won’t be a high possession game either as the T’Wolves are the 24th slowest paced team in the NBA, the Suns rank 15th. Minnesota has a historically great defensive efficiency rating this season and the Suns were above average ranking 13th in DEFF. This one shapes up to be a grinder with a low output by each team. Bet UNDER.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 20, 2024
Magic vs Cavs
UNDER 207½ -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA top play on 10* UNDER 207.5 Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers, 1 PM ET - We will keep this analysis short and get right to the facts. These are two of the best defenses in the NBA with the Magic ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.113 points per possession, the Cavs rank 6th. Cleveland has the 6th best FG% defense in the league and allow the 7th fewest points. Orlando allows a higher FG% but allows just 108.4PPG 4th fewest in the league and give up the 8th fewest points in the paint. Offensively neither team is great as the Magic rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, the Cavs are 18th. Cleveland is 12th in team FG% overall, 15th in 3PT%. Orlando ranks 15th in team FG%, 24th in 3PT%. Lastly, this should be a slower tempo game as the Magic are the 5th slowest paced team in the league, the Cavs are 9th slowest. The young Magic have not been in a pressure situation like this and the Cavs best scoring option Donovan Mitchell is less than 100%. We like UNDER.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 21, 2024
Mariners vs Rockies
Mariners
-1½ -120 at Mirage
Lost
$120.0
Play Type: Top Premium
(Game ONE of double-header) #925 ASA PLAY ON Seattle Mariners -1.5 -120 over Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - The Rockies are 4-16 on the season and have lost 6 straight games!  The Mariners have won 4 straight games and have been getting great pitching.  Speaking of great pitching, George Kirby is more than capable of that and he has already proven that in recent seasons plus in 2 of his 4 starts this season. Kirby has a great SO to BB ratio even though he had a couple rare tough starts this season.  He is going to take advantage of facing a slumping Rockies team.  Colorado has been shutout 3 times recently and been held to 3 or less runs in 8 of 9 recent losses.  Rockies just are not hitting and that will not get any easier facing Kirby as he has a strong repertoire of pitches.  Colorado is 2-10 last 12 games and in the 9 most recent losses the Rockies scored an average of only 2 runs per game.  The Mariners have scored an average of 6 runs per game during their current 4-game win streak.  Seattle should continue to heat up at the plate as they are slated to face Cal Quantrill in Game 1 of this double-header.  Quantrill only had solid strikeout numbers in one of his starts and gave up 8 hits in 6 innings in that one.  In his other 3 starts he has walked 7 and struck out only 5.  That kind of ratio will get you into trouble at Coors Field and, with Seattle's bats starting to heat up, a tough afternoon for Quantrill is projected here.  He had a 5.24 ERA last season and that was with Cleveland and he has a 5.57 ERA this season with the Rockies.  Also, in terms of bullpens, the Mariners have a 2.84 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and the Rockies have a 5.55 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP!  Mariners get the call for a blowout road win in Game 1 of this double-header Sunday.
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 21, 2024
Heat vs Celtics
Celtics
-13½ -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

SERVICE BIO

The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwins), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 50+ years in the sports betting industry. Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s. After learning the handicapping trade from one of the oldest in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since. They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year. ASA is located in Madison, WI and a foundation of their handicapping prowess revolves around the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten.

ASAwins has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few. They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season.

ASAwins handicapping methods have evolved through years of with hard work and research being the anchor of their success. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections. They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping. That’s not where they stop, however. They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest). On top of that, they analyze each point spread (and their movements) comparing them with their own power ratings to find where an edge might be found. Lastly, their predictive analytics or math models predict the outcomes of games based solely on numbers and statistics that aren’t swayed by the human element. So, as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years which has them as one of the more tenured experts in the industry.

Lee & Mike at ASAwins have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so. Their 50+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need. Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you invest in the known commodity of ASAwins!