My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Colorado/ASU.

Both teams are hungry for a victory and I believe each is going to push the pace from start to finish. ASU is fresh of a monumental upset for the Spartans and it has to be feeling confident here as well as the last time these team’s met in Tempe, ASU picked up the 41-30 victory. That said, Colorado posted the seven point victory in this matchup last year at home, with three passing TD’s from its QB Steven Montez. Colorado won’t be lacking for motivation here either after coming up short to Air Force last time out. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a high-scoring “shootout,” rather than a low-scoring “chess match.” 

Key Trends:

- Colorado has seen the total go over the number in 12 of its last 15 off an upset loss as a home favorite.

- ASU has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 17 off an upset win as a road underdog.

The verdict: The opener of Pac 12 play for both and I expect some fireworks; play the over!

My 8* SPECIAL is on ODU.

After beating the Seminoles last week, I think that UVA gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. Last year ODU was 4-8, but it’s looked more competitive this season. Last week ODU faced the Hokies and it kept it relatively close. Overall the Monarchs are allowing only 26 PPG, but managing just 20.6. ODU runs the ball twice as much as it passes, but facing a team which does the same helps the visitors here in my opinion. Bryce Perkins has been great in the early going for UVA, but as mentioned off the top I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot for the home side after last week’s big upset victory. 

Key Trends:

- ODU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring three points or less in the first half of its last game.

- Virginia is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a home favorite of 21.5 to 28 points.

The verdict: Old Dominion won’t be rolling over here. The Monarchs’ strength on defense makes “the points” the correct call in this matchup; play on ODU!

My 9* CLASH OF THE TITANS is on Illinois.

The Fighting Illini come in hungry after suffering their first defeat of the season in a 34-31 set back to EMU on a last-second field goal. Nebraska comes in a tiny bit complacent here in my opinion after its 44-8 drubbing of NIU. Huskers’ QB Adrian Martinez has 725 passing yards to open the year, but I think he’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball on the road in Big Ten play. Illinois beat Akron 42-3 and UConn 31-23 and has looked competitive in every game thus far. Last week QB Brandon Peterson had 297 yards passing with two TD’s and an INT. Also note that Illinois RB Reggie Corbin had 144 yards ion 18 carries. 

Key Trends:

- Nebraska is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, including only 1-2 ATS this year.

- Illinois is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range.

The verdict: I’m expecting another dog fight from the Illini today; so grab up as many points as you can!

My 9* BEWARE OF DOG play is on Louisiana Lafayette.

Outright victory? Of course it’s not out of the question, but I think that grabbing the points is the savvy move in this one. Ohio enters off back-to-back losses, while the Ragin Cajuns enter off a 77-6 win and average 590.3 YPG of offense (currently fourth in the country). The Cajuns limited FCS opponent Texas Southern to just 236 yards last week, while racking up 748 of their own. The Bobcats posted an easy 41-20 win over Rhode Island in their opener, but they’ve since lost two straight, falling 20-10 to Pittsburgh and 33-31 to the Herd last weekend. QB Nathan Rourke was a stand out in a losing cause for Ohio last week, throwing for 215 yards and three TD’s, while also running for another 118 yards. 

Key Trends:

- Louisiana Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road.

- The Cajuns are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference contests.

The verdict: I think this is a tight game. I understand that the Cajuns’ early numbers are skewed, but the offense can unquestionably move the chains; for all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the points!

My 10* BIG TIGER is on UCF. 

UCF started last year 3-0 and it enters this one with a 3-0 record as well. I believe the Knights keep the foot on the gas here and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. And if recent history is any precedence, then UCF has to be loving its chances as it destroyed Pitt last year 45-14. The Knights’ offense has been impressive, averaging 50 PPG so far. Last week the Knights smashed Stanford 45-27. Pittsburgh stumbled down the stretch last year to finish 7-7 and it’s also stumbled out of the gates this season by going 1-2. Last week the Panthers feel 17-10 at Penn State. 

Key Trends:

- The Knights allow only 13.7 PPG

The verdict: UCF QB Dillon Gabriel went 22 of 40 for 347 yards, four TD’s and zero INT’s last week. All four TD passes went to four different players. Pittsburgh has gotten decent play from QB Kenny Pickett, but I’m not reading too much into last week’s stats. Look for the Golden Knight’s smothering defensive play to be too much for the home side to handle down the stretch; lay the points!

My 8* play is on the Miami Dolphins

Key Trends:

Analysis posted shortly.

My 8* play on the over Jets/Patriots.

It’s do or die for the Jets, as an 0-3 start would be the end of their Super Bowl hopes, and likely a shot at the playoffs as well. New England would love nothing more than to put the final nail in the coffin with a big beatdown victory as well in my opinion. When you add it all up, I think this number is much too low. New York will throw caution to the wind obviously as it’s down to its third string QB, so expect Luke Falk to be given the green light to air this one out early and often. This works both ways of course, as the Pats’ defense is extremely adept at putting points on the board as well. Look for Tom Brady and company to put on a clinic as well in front of the home town crowd.

Key Trends:

- The Jets have seen the total soar over in five of their last six after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games.

- The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in four of their last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games.

The verdict: I truly feel this one has a legitimate shot at going over the number by half time; play the over!

My 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings.

The Raiders got smoked by the Chiefs at home last week. Oakland hits the road for the first time this year. I think the Raiders get caught looking ahead to the next daunting few weeks, which sees them play only one home game in that span, and that’s when they’re in London, England. Oakland suffered a big blow to its secondary when Johnathan Abram went out in Week 1 vs. Denver. Last week the Raiders’ secondary looked weak against Patrick Mahomes and I think it’ll struggle here too in this difficult road venue. Minnesota looked great in Week 1, but poor in Week 2 at Lambeau. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Kirk Cousins and company though in my opinion. Dalvin Cook makes Minnesota’s offense dangerous, as he already has 265 total rushing yards. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss.

- Oakland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on the road.

The verdict: The Vikes are holding opponents to 7-23 on third downs so far and they’re allowing 108.5 rushing YPG. Minnesota also has six sacks for 50 yards. I have a hard time seeing the Raiders slowing down, or scoring against the Vikings today; lay the points!

My 8* play on the under Falcons/Colts.

It’s a big game for both teams, who enter at 1-1. The Colts have looked decent with Jacoby Brissett under center and he’s been leaning heavily on RB Marlon Mack, who already has 225 rushing yards. The Falcons bounced back last week with an impressive 24-20 defensive victory over the Eagles. So far the Falcons ground game has stalled, so we can expect the visitors to be trying to establish that early and often in this one. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting from both of these non-conference sides today as each looks to control the tempo and limit mistakes. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road.

- The Falcons have the total dip under the number in 11 of their last 17 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points.

- Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 16 at home.

- The Colts have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 12 following a divisional contest.

The verdict: This one has the feel of a “chess match.” Play the under!

My 10* play is on the Cincinnati Bengals.

I’m basing this pick primarily on the “situation.” Cincinnati is still without main WR AJ Green and the Bengals come to Buffalo desperate sitting at 0-2. The Bills enter content after their surprising 2-0 start and while Josh Allen has looked sharp so far for Buffalo, I’m unconvinced still to this point. Last week the Bengals ran into a red hot 49ers team, but they looked pretty good in their 21-20 loss in Seattle in Week 1. I expect another hard-fought battle in Buffalo vs. the over-achieving Bills.

Key Trends:

- The Bengals are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 as a road dog.

- The Bills are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a win by 14 points or more.

The verdict: With their season on the line, I think the Bengals will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire; grab the points!

My 8* play is on the Baltimore Ravens.

I think Baltimore is the better all around team. KC has an amazing offense and it has the advantage of playing at home, but I’m unconvinced of the Chiefs’ defense still. Both teams have played sub-par competition so far to get to 2-0, but the Ravens clearly have the offensive fire-power to “hang” with any team in the league. Combined with what I believe to be a superior defensive unit and special teams, I do indeed think we’re getting a gift with the ample points here. 

Key Trends:

- Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog.

- KC is interestingly just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games.

The verdict: Of course I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can; play on the Ravens!

My 10* play is on the OVER Broncos/Packers.

From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring “shootout.” Denver is 0-2 and it’s defense has looked suspect. The offense has struggled as well. Joe Flacco and company won’t be holding anything back here though as they try to salvage their season and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to open the season (no team in NFL history has won the Super Bowl after starting 0-3.) Green Bay has looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball during its 2-0 start, but I think the unit gets tested today by this now desperate Broncos team. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company appear to be firing on all cylinders offensively early as well. As stated off the top, from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

Key Trends:

- Denver has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after scoring 14 points or less in its last game.

- GB has seen the total soar over in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range.

The verdict: Expect a wide open affair from start to finish in this one; play the over!