Jack's Free Pick Friday: Kansas State +3

There's just no salvaging the season for Texas at this point.  The damage has already been done.  They have lost six straight games coming in to fall to 4-7 and out of bowl contention.  I don't see them getting back up off the mat to beat Kansas State Friday, and I'm shocked they are favored given the turmoil within their program.

The Longhorns followed up their 23-point loss to Iowa State by getting upset as 31-point favorites against Kansas.  They failed to show up on the road at West Virginia last week, losing 31-23 as only 2.5-point underdogs.  I cashed in the Mountaineers as a premium pick in that game, and I'm fading the Longhorns again this week as a free pick that nearly made the premium card.

Kansas State doesn't take games off.  I know they will show up with their 'A' game here against Texas, and that should be good enough to win this game outright no matter what kind of effort we get from the Longhorns.  They would love nothing more than to send Texas to the SEC with one final loss just as the rest of the Big 12 has enjoyed doing this season.

The Wildcats are playing very well coming into this game.  They have gone 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their lone loss during this stretch came last week in a 10-20 home loss to Baylor.  Well, Baylor is not only one of the best teams in the Big 12, but one of the best teams in the entire country at 9-2 this season.  This is a big step down in competition for the Wildcats.

Kansas State is 39-15-2 ATS in its last 56 games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  Kansas State is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog of 3 points or less.  Texas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Wildcats are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Bet Kansas State Friday.

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