I’m rolling my eyes that two Big 12 teams are in the top 5 in the AP poll and Coaches Poll. However, there are 4 teams out of the Big Ten in the top 25 right now in Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State. There are a lot of bottom feeders in the Big Ten, but these 4 with maybe the exception of Iowa could beat any team in the country. Week 7 had a lot of action starting in the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy.
Michigan State @ Michigan
I’m sorry if you had Michigan in a ML parlay and if you had Michigan State on the money line then you were given a gift that I don’t think I have ever seen.
This was a crazy game that I leaned to, but after I was so wrong about Northwestern at Michigan the week before I just could not bet it or give it out to clients. I simply wanted to sit back and watch and learn about these two teams. One thing is for both teams can stop the run, Michigan State was not as bad as many thought coming in, but +150 yards was still not enough to get them the win. They need the crazy mishandling of the punt by Michigan and a crazy return/play that will go down in Big Ten history especially if Michigan State can go on and get into the college playoff. If you have not seen the play here it is:
Also worth noting is that Connor Cook was the best player on the field. He made several plays and throws in this game that really allowed the Spartans to stay in the game. He finishes 328 yards on 18-39 with a TD and no interceptions.
Outlook – This is a game you look at and wonder if Michigan ever recovers? If you listened to Jim Harbaugh’s reaction after the game it was very difficult to see how they would get over this, but this team gets a bye and that can be a good or bad thing. Sometimes you need to get back out on the field to forget. Michigan has 3 manageable games before their next big game at home against Penn State then home against Ohio State. They have everything in front of them and I expect Harbaugh to have this team ready for when that happens. For the Spartans they will host Indiana this week and are 16.5 point favorite. This is far too high off a win like this and I may be looking to back Indiana although they too had a very tough game in week 7 giving up 22 4th quarter points to lose 55-52 at home against Rutgers.
Iowa @ Northwestern
This is a game with not much to report other than the fact Iowa is undefeated and has a very easy and maneagable schedule the rest of the way, but we will get to that in our outlook. Here are the highlights courtesy of the Big 10 network:
Akrum Wadley is the story here as he rushes for 204 yards after Jordan Canzeri gets injured. Northwestern certainly not very good at stopping the run that’s for sure and I don’t know how they looked so good against Stanford. The only thing I could say is maybe the PAC 12 just is not very good this year. This loss was as bad as it looked as Iowa had nearly 500 yards of offense and held Northwestern under 200. I guess you could claim that Northwestern was in a hang over situation following their 38-0 loss to Michigan the week before, but I can’t continue to back this team that’s for sure.
Outlook: Northwestern goes on the road to face Nebraska as a 9 point under dog which just tells you what the experts that set these lines think. Just 2 weeks ago Northwestern would have been a favorite at Nebraska. I don’t know if this Northwestern team can recover to be quite honest and it’s the same story as previous years. For Iowa they get the bye week followed by a trip to Indiana that can be dangerous, home against Minnesota and Purdue and a road game against Nebraska. It’s very possible that this team wins the West is 12-0 getting ready to face Ohio State, Michigan or Michigan State for the Big Ten Championship and an opportunity to get into the playoff which is just crazy to think.
Nebraska rebounds at Minnesota
Nebraska who lost at home against Wisconsin the week before go on the road and rebound which really tells us a lot about how tough this team is. I mean they are literally so close to being undefeated. I’m still not going to rush to back them in games that should be close. I thought this was a bad match up for Minnesota which I mentioned last week only because Nebraska has been very good ironically against the run this year and that’s what Minnesota relies on the most.
Minnesota struggled to run the ball which was not a surprise and they had 3 turnovers in the 48-25 loss. The score was definitely not an indication of the talent on the side of Nebraska. They still have major issues against the pass, and their offense can easily be stopped by any above average defenses. They were very lucky in this game to force the 3 turnovers, and one game on a pick 6 to close this game to make it way worse than it really was as Nebraska only netted 98 total yards and gave up over 300 yards passing to Mitch Leidner.
Outlook: Nebraska is a bit over value this week against Northwestern, but it may be a good match up considering that Northwestern does not have a passing game at all and relies heavily on the running game. Nebraska will be challenged later in the season on the road against Purdue and at home against Michigan State who both have above average QB’s. Minnesota gets a bye this week, but their schedule is extremely challenging this year having to face Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa after their bye. This is likely not heading to a bowl game.
Penn State @ Ohio State
Ezekial Elliot and JT Barrett stole the headlines with their running game as Ohio State racked up over 300 yards of total offense. Ohio State in my opinion is definitely not showing all of their plays possibly just getting by waiting for their two games against the Michigan’s to close out the year. The defense is starting to get better by the week, and so is the offensive line. This is the same thing that happened last year as Ohio State improved week after week. In the box score they were just +114 total yards, and they showed some issues in stopping the run which was a bit surprising, but Penn State definitely found a running back in Saquon Barkley.
Barkley averaging 8.34 yards per carry now and is getting more and more carries which should only make Penn State a real threat down the stretch against certain teams. I don’t think Penn State beats Michigan or Michigan State, but they are definitely going to give one of those some issues in my opinion as they continue to get better and both those teams will be in look ahead spots to Ohio State when they play.
