Illinois vs. Penn State –
What an ugly game for Illinois who were only 5.5 point under dogs coming into this contest, but they put up just 167 total yards while Penn State nearly doubled them in first downs and had 400 total yards. The biggest shock for me was that Illinois had been playing well then they lose a tough one at Iowa go on a bye and lose at home to Wisconsin 13-24, and now 39-0 to Penn State. This was the first time Christian Hackenberg looked great all season 21-29 266 yards and 2 TD’s and Penn State is that very tricky team for Michigan and Michigan State down the stretch.
Outlook – Penn State goes on the road to face Northwestern, who is off a bye and will be 2.5 point under dogs. It’s hard to bet on this Northwestern team, but Penn State is probably looking towards Michigan at home the following week, but Penn State really seems to be putting things together on both side of the ball, I think Saquan Barkley’s health at RB is the key for Penn State, and I’ll probably pass on this game, although I think it raises a red flag that Penn State is a FG under dog. For Illinois we have a classic sell high buy low situation and we are buyers on Illinois this week at Purdue as 2 point road favorites, Purdue we are selling high on after their first big 10 win 55-45 over Nebraska.
Nebraska vs. Purdue
Wow, what a shocking game and it was not even this close as Nebraska had 29 points late in this game. Nebraska turns the ball over 5 times which is something Purdue is used to doing, but you have a +5 turnover game you are going to beat a lot of teams. For Nebraska they have really changed their approach and I’m not shocked at all that they are experiencing growing pains under Mike Riley and I don’t know that it’s the best hire at this point. They are now running it just 47% of the time 97th in the country, compared to 61% last year, and they have just 77 yards of rushing against Purdue just really a mind boggling stat because Nebraska who recruits against Big 12 schools just isn’t getting the type of talent that fits Mike Riley’s approach. Now maybe that changes over the next few years, but right now it’s ugly.
Outlook – Nebraska is not this bad, although 2 very ugly performances the past few weeks and they are not going to a bowl. They do get to host Michigan State this week and I think their best game might be on the table. They have just 1 big 10 win all year, and are desperate to stay in the bowl picture, one more loss and they are out, I don’t know if this team has quite on Riley yet, but as 5.5 point under dogs with Michigan State coming off a bye, I’m not buying it in this situation. Purdue meanwhile come off the high of beating a program like Nebraska and that’s significant. It’s just their 2nd win of the season and they’ll face an Illinois team that’s getting good value based on their struggles a week ago. I think we may be looking to fade Purdue this week, but stay tuned to our premium picks newsletter which you can subscribe to by going to www.sportsbetcapping.com/freddywills.
Maryland at Iowa 15-31
Maryland is getting better, especially on defense against the run and won’t be a walk over for any of their final teams. They hold Iowa to 293 total yards, but turn the ball over 4 times which has been the story all year for Iowa. Iowa is +9 in 4 conference games in TO margin. I see them getting too much credit the rest of the year. Now they are ranked in the top 10 so you know you are going to get every teams best effort, and that may be a tough situation this week.
Outlook – Maryland will host Wisconsin as a 13 point under dog. Wisconsin keeps getting better by the week, and are the team chasing Iowa. Wisconsin’s running game keeps improving, but Maryland rushing defense has really improved allowing 3.85 yards per carry on the season, but 3.32 in conference play. This is a team that allowed 200+ in each of their first 3 games against FBS opponents and now they have held Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa under 200. However, Wisconsin got Corey Clement back, only average 3.69 ypc in conference play, but have been picking it up of late. I have this game circled as a possible large upset with Maryland.
Iowa as we know is ranked 10th in the country, but I feel they have been lucky along the way, and they opened up as 8 point road favorites against Indiana who has given a lot of teams troubles in the Big 10. This could be the game they slip up and it seems like a lot of sharps agree as they open up as 8 point favorites and move to 6.5. Indiana hasn’t won a Big 10 game, come off a bye, and get their best player in Jordan Howard back which should make a huge deal.
Michigan vs. Minnesota
This was a game I didn’t get to watch, but Minnesota put up 461 yards had 317 yards passing, and 144 yards rushing. This was definitely a situation of a team playing inspired (Minnesota, because of Jerry Kill’s forced retirement)., and Michigan just feeling the impact of their loss against Michigan State. Michigan gets lucky ere wins the game despite 2 turnovers and being outgained by 165 yards.
Outlook – I’m not going to put a lot of stock into the performance by Michigan which was awful, they play Rutgers this week and are 24 point favorites should be another easy win for Michigan who then travels to Indiana, Penn State and hosts Ohio State to end the year. The road trip to Penn State is going to be an interesting one, and I hope their hype is back by then so we can capitalize on some value with Penn State.
Minnesota, had their shot at the big win the week Jerry Kill emotionally retired because of his epilepsy. It was an emotional day and now they go on the road to face Ohio State, and Iowa. They are 23 point under dogs, and Ohio State has enough issues with JT Barrett situation. I just don’t see any value in backing Minnesota or Ohio State so that will be a pass for me although I think Minnesota is in a very tough situation having almost upset Michigan.
That will wrap things up for this week. I will mention that we have some very good games this week.
ACC Coastal – Duke vs North Carolina at 12 along with Notre Dame and Pitt starting early. Florida State plays on the road at Clemson in what should be an interesting battle, TCU and Oklahoma State another top 15 match up, and of course who could forget LSU vs Alabama so overall a much more packed week of games than the last two weeks. We have more week day games and I will definitely spend my time concentrating on those so we will only have this one single podcast this week.
