I would like to regularly do a bit of a betting recap for each of the games that I give out to clients. I think it’s important to learn from mistakes or recognize bad luck or good luck. In the case of Thursday night and really the past 10 days there has been some unfortunate luck that could dramatically change our performance if we had a little luck, but in reality that’s betting on sports. I know I have some clients today that are not too happy, and why should they be. I’m very unhappy myself, actually could not really enjoy my Mets getting to the NLCS and winning a playoff series for the first time in a decade, because all I could think about was what I gave out to clients and what my clients lost. I know I will win over the long term of the season, but anytime you have a night like that it’s worth going back and looking at where you made mistakes.
Auburn vs. Kentucky (30-27) – Our play Kentucky +2.5
On the scoreboard it looks like a bad 1/2 point loss that I should have bought a half point on, but I will tell you there is no value in that except for this scenario. Over the long haul you are probably better off betting the money line although that money line was +110 everywhere which to me you are getting 2.5 points for 20 cents. You typically pay 10 cents or more to buy a 1/2 point so the value on Kentucky +2.5 was good in my opinion.
I made the mistake of thinking Auburn would not be able to run their offense, because they had not shown an ounce of it all year long. I should have known better than to go against Gus Malzahn with some extra preparation time. I also made the mistake of reading into the headlines that Malzahn was starting Jeremy Johnson again. That would have completely changed my opinion on this game. Sean White was great connecting on 63% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt and 255 yards. Auburn did not have many plays over 10 yards coming into this game, but they certainly changed it after.
To be honest Kentucky still should have won this game. I thought the play calling down the stretch was very very bad especially the last two plays where they throw a low percentage pass down the field in one on one coverage on a 3rd and 4 and follow it up with a Patrick Towles scramble. Kentucky had an untimely turnover in this game that really was the difference otherwise Kentucky was +90 in total yards, they held the advantage on time of posession, but this team would not give the ball to Boom Williams who had 16 carries for 113 and 2 TD’s. I thought he should have gotten 20-25 carries at least in order for them to win. Kentucky was very good on defense in the second half, but just could not get off the filed on third down allowing 61% conversion rate.
Takeaways: Honestly I don’t think Auburn is back after this win. It was a very nice win on the road, but the defense still allowed Kentucky to do whatever they wanted and the Kentucky defense had success in the second half making adjustments to take the running game out of this game. In case you don’t want to listen to my rambling take a look at the highlights:
Western Kentucky vs. North Texas – Free pick was on Western Kentucky -32.5
I’ll keep it short and sweet on this one. I don’t typically lay this much chalk, but my formulas and algorithms have this scenario at 17-3 ATS over 7 years of data that I have constantly tuned. In reality there were several differences that changed the outcome in this game. A hail-mary with poor defense to close the half as Western Kentucky was up 34-7 before that. They were also up 55-14 looking like we would get an easy cover with 5 minutes to play before they give up two late TD’s to North Texas as the Mean Green’s QB looked unstoppable on the stat sheet, but in reality the Hilltoppers just stopped caring which I didn’t expect from them in this game which was the reason I was comfortable laying so many points.
My one mistake here was line value.. I usually hunt for it and while you never really have line value in a spread like this you can certainly find it when a team is coming off a less than impressive win where you find non-inflated lines. For the Hilltoppers they were coming off a huge win against Middle Tennessee and North Texas was coming off a head scratching loss that got their coach fired. It was a buy low situation we do not often put ourselves in.
UCLA vs. Stanford – Our pick was a POD on UCLA
This game just started in miserable fashion, a pick 6 for a TD and the extra point for Stanford who was spotted 7 points. I honestly immediately did not like the way Jim Mora handled himself on the sidelines in the middle of this game. It seemed like he had given up and now I’m questioning if he’s even a good coach and maybe just a great recruiter. I know UCLA was down on players in this game because they have had some major injuries, but I was confident the offense would work against and over rated Stanford defense. I was right on that account, but in the end I was wrong UCLA could not get Stanford off the field and the Bruins could not stay on the field. Really that’s the only difference in this game as UCLA was 3-16, and Stanford was 5-12 on third down. I also like to point out that UCLA had 10 penalties which is absolutely something I handicap. That was the most penalties they had all year, but now they are averaging almost 10 per game on the road.
UCLA moved the ball fine in this game as Rosen had over 300 yards passing, and the running game looked elite with 5.8 ypc against a Stanford defense that prides itself on stopping the run. I’m not going to sit here and tell you I was on the right side, because that’s pretty evident. However, I will say I was completely wrong and the in game coaching was the difference. You have to give Stanford’s head coach David Shaw some credit for not over thinking it and sticking to the plan running the ball 48 times for 310 yards will win you a lot of games.
Takeaways: Stanford still not a top 10 team in the nation in my opinion. They need to face a team that can stop the run, and for Kevin Hogan to win them the game. Unfortunately they have a weak schedule and do not have to face another top 50 run defense all year other than Washington, but they are at home. Check out the highlights below. It’s nearly impossible to win when you hand Stanford 14 points without letting their offense step onto the field!
