Each week I will recap some of the games I don’t bet. It’s a good way to share some of my logic behind my NCAAF picks and why I may back a team or not. Of course you can grab all of my premium picks right here – http://www.sportsbetcapping.com/freddywills All of my picks will be guaranteed or $$ back if you purchase from that website!
Michigan vs. Oregon State (-14.5 / 46)
This is no action game for me after looking at it. I really wanted to take Oregon State after taking Michigan last week, I’m just not impressed with what I saw from their offense. However, Oregon State brings back just 10 returning starters and this game is on the road at 12pm ET. Too early for a Pac 12 team ranked 122nd in experience. I do like Gary Anderson as a head coach and he’s had a great defense everywhere he’s gone. If I watch this game and Michigan scores early and the total goes up I may play the Under, but I don’t see the value with the total already dropping 2 points.
Army vs. Connecticut (+7 / 47)
This is an interesting game that Army actually won last year 35-21 at Yankee Stadium. However, this year it will be a true road game and while I’m not exactly impressed with either of these two programs my algorithms really liked Army. A closer look and I just can’t back this team on the road. I also think Connecticut is moving in the right direction with an improved offense that should be able to run on Army after bringing back 14 starters. Here are some stats on Army away from home according to Bill Connelly’s pre-season preview.
- Average Percentile Performance (home and neutral): 30% (average score: Opp 28, Army 28)
- Average Percentile Performance (road): 5% (average score: Opp 40, Army 21)
BYU vs. Boise State (+2.5 /55)
This is an interesting one and hard not to recommend as a college football pick with BYU being a home dog. Tasom Hill is out for the season, but they do start a capable QB, while Boise State looked bad against Washington. I’m just going to stay away both teams had big wins last week and I’m unsure on what to expect from BYU. My key formulas also like Boise here, but overall my algorithms say to play BYU. It’s just a no play for me.. I still don’t know what to expect from this Boise offense after losing their QB and RB from last year. I will be watching.
Minnesota @ Colorado State
This was a game I circled, my algorithms matched up and my research also recommended a play here for me so make sure you check it out – www.sportsbetcapping.com/freddywills guaranteed or your $$ back.
North Texas @ SMU
We originally leaned towards North Texas here as both teams play in comparable conferences although The Mean Green out of C-USA were just -47ypg in conference play compared with SMU who were -174 in the AAC. North Texas beat SMU 43-6 last year, but were an awful road team and have to replace over 100 starts along the offensive line. This is a tough game to go on the road with all the new changes. I like North Texas head coach Dan McCarney, but this is a no play for me.
