Week one is in the books and we went 7-2-1 ATS, 8-2-1 on the season when you count the Hawaii opener. Honestly, I could have gone 11-0 which I will get to in a bit as we look at each bet and go over the games we gave out to clients. In case their are ever any doubts. All of the picks that appear on my records table are released their 1-2 minutes after a game starts. All of my College Football Picks Against The Spread are archived with a time stamp in two different places, one being my released picks forum.
Four out of our 8 wins were under dogs winning outright. Let’s start out with the pick I gave in my premium newsletter. Which you can subscribe to on the website.
Auburn +8 over Clemson 4.4% play
Perhaps we got a little lucky in this game, but I loved the value with Auburn at home, and I took them because of that defense. That defensive line has 5 guys on the two deep front line that are 5 start guys. They held Clemson under 400 total yards and forced 2 turnovers.
Watson and Clemson may get some value here moving forward, because the offense did not look as good as the public is used to, but Mike Williams at WR was outstanding with 9 receptions and for 174 yards. Williams was injured in 2015, and is a huge addition to this offense moving forward.
For Auburn, I love the defense. I am simply confused about what Auburn’s offense is doing rotating in a lot of QB’s. They had 3 guys in there and yo would think by now they would know Shaun White is the answer over Jeremy Johnson, but neither one looked good at home which is concerning when you look at their talent at WR, and what Clemson replaced on defense. I did like John Franklin III who saw limited action, but the running game seemed explosive when he was. I’d like to see if Auburn hints at him getting more action in future weeks.
| View Analysis on Army +15 over Temple. |
I was high on Army all off season and we took them as a top play on Friday over Temple. Temple is replacing far too much talent on defense, and they also were missing their top RB. We got an easy cover to kick off the weekend and I will look to back Army who is sporting their most experienced team in decades. Jeff Monken started his young guys in previous years which does not typically happen and it’s paying huge dividends.
| View Wyoming +10 over Northern Illinois |
Wyoming simply dominated in this game as I thought they would be a very easy cover. I only wish this was higher on my confidence rating. Wyoming is one of the toughest places to play being at the highest elevation. Northern Illinois to me is on a downward spiral. I am not high on them at all. Wyoming, now goes on the road to play a tough game in Big Ten play and I will look to fade them. This was a big win as a double digit dog, and you have to look at them in a hang over situatino here. Tune into my next podcast as we talk more about MOV ATS.
View Analysis on Houston +12.5 over Oklahoma
What a game this was. Truly wish we took Houston on the money line here, but we will take a nice cover with Houston looking like the real deal here. Tom Herman is the real deal as a head coach. Oklahoma is not that good in my opinion. I’m not high on the Big 12. I mentioned last year Oklahoma nearly lost to TCU without their top 2 players. I will say this game was much closer than the final score indicated as you can see from the box score. Brandon Wilson 100 yd. missed field goal return (Ty Cummings kick) was the play of the game that put Houston up by 9. Ed Oliver, 5 star guy on the defensive line for Houston is a stud.
View Analysis on UCLA/TX A&M Under 55
A little bad luck here in this match up as we had the under and the under looked great until UCLA scored 15 points in the final 4 minutes. We were fortunate to have only a TD in OT and we pushed. My takeaway is that Texas A&M is better than I thought and they’re a very dangerous team moving forward.
View Analysis on Missouri loss over West Virginia
Missouri had a chance for us to get the back door cover. They had first and goal on the 5 under two minutes to play and they couldn’t move the ball an inch. Despite what the box score looked like this team has major issues and holes to fill. I was disappointed in the defense, I thought they were better than that, and the offense despite putting up 462 yards most of which was in garbage time has a lot of improvements to make.
View Analysis on Texas over Notre Dame
What a game this one was and Texas was another one of my NCAAF Picks. Texas was up 17 there late in the game and there was a period where it looked like we may be unlucky and lose in OT, but Texas pulled it off. The 18th wheeler package with Tyrone Swoopes was amazing. Have a listen:
That wasn’t just it. Texas freshman QB Shane Buechele was awesome and is giving Texas a ton to look forward to. I think Texas can compete with Oklahoma in the Big 12 this year! That’s not saying much considering what I think about Texas, but their schedule sets up nicely if they can get through their two road games at Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma to begin October.
View Analysis on Florida State over Ole Miss
It was 28-6, and I turned the game off and went into the bedroom to watch “Bachelor in Paradise” with my wife. Go ahead gentleman make fun of me all you want, but sometimes these are the sacrifices you must make. Before I left I posted this
Luckily I got to come back and watch midway through the third quarter and Florida State is as good as I thought they were. Deandre Fracois is the real deal. I thought he had to just get hit once or twice. Florida State was +200 yards of offense, +25 minutes in time of possession. The one thing that surprised me was the offensive line. Florida State’s line did not play well at all against an Ole Miss front that lost some guys. That’s concerning moving forward, but Florida State is the second best team in the nation in my opinion.
After a 8-2-1 ATS start to the college football season one might say I’m not humble. That could not be further from the truth. I have gone through rough patches in my career and I always feel like I come out of it for the better. I am definitely not the type that hides from those moments so definitely check back after I have a losing Saturday although I hope it doesn’t happen this week!
