We have done this article for many conferences and we have been able to find some betting value in the market based on public perception off big wins and losses against the spread. We are looking at winning and losing teams and how they do after a double digit loss or win against the spread. This is where Vegas is off by 10 points or more and we are tracking what those teams do the following week. We have even split it up between winning and losing teams. The teams I consider losers for this season based on their record and remaining schedule are Miami Ohio, Kent State, Bowling Green, Buffalo, and Northern Illinois.
It is also worth noting when looking at the MAC Conference that the MAC West is far superior straight up and ATS vs. the MAC East. I will post some trends later in the week on this, but I know when handicapping in the past the MAC West has been dominant which should not be surprising when you take a look at the teams and the talent in the MAC West.
Winning Teams following a 10+ point WIN ATS
Returning Home – These teams are 13-11 ATS since the 2015 season so really not a significant trend, but teams off a 21+ point cover returning home are actually just 4-7 ATS meaning that winning teams following a 10-20.5 point ATS cover are actually 9-4 ATS. Looking Forward – Currently all 3 winning teams that I am tracking are going on the road this week.
Going on the Road – Teams off a win ATS of 10+ points now on the road are actually 7-1 ATS, and 3-0 ATS when they won by 21+ ATS the week before. Looking Forward – There are two teams we are looking at backing in this scenario and they are Akron who is a 17.5 point favorite at Buffalo (losing team), Eastern Michigan who is a 7.5 point favorite at Miami Ohio (losing team).
Winning Teams following a 10+ point LOSS ATS
Returning Home – There is not significant volume of plays here to track, but these teams have gone 3-3 ATS in total and 1-2 ATS which is included in the 3-3 record when they lose by 21+ ATS.
Going on the Road – These teams are a combined 9-3 ATS the following week after a loss ATS of 10 or more points, but are just 2-2 ATS after a 21+ ATS loss. Looking Forward – Western Michigan lost again ATS last week by 11.5 points and will go on the road next week (November 1st) to face Ball State (losing team).
Losing Teams following a 10+ point WIN ATS
Returning Home – Are just 1-7 ATS since the 2015 season which includes an 0-3 ATS mark after winning ATS by 21+ points. I would love to look at this trend and fade a MAC East team facing a MAC West team after this situation. Looking Forward – Northern Illinois just won by 13 points ATS and are now at home (November 1st) against Bowling Green where we may look at fading Northern Illinois unfortunately I don’t like to fade a MAC West teams hosting a MAC East team so it will likely be a pass.
Going on the Road – There is not a significant number of games in this situation. 4-3 ATS, but 0-2 ATS of 21+ points so it will be interesting to track this moving forward.
Losing Teams following a 10+ point LOSS ATS
Returning Home – These teams since 2015 are 8-9 ATS which is not significant, but when you look at what those teams have done at home following a loss ATS of 21+ points those teams are 5-2 ATS. So teams losing ATS 10-20.5 points are actually 3-7 ATS. Looking Forward – Again I’m looking to fade MAC East and back MAC West teams if it falls into a good situation. Buffalo (MAC East) lost by 13 ATS, and are now at home against Akron (MAC East) as a 17.5 point under dog. It would say to back Akron which we mentioned above, but 17.5 points is a lost for a divisional MAC game so I’ll pass. The other game is Ball State who lost by 13.5 points and will host Western Michigan on 11/1. We already mentioned we will lean towards Western Michigan and this trend would back that up.
Going back on the Road – These teams are 6-8 ATS, but 0-3 if they lose by 21+ points. We have two teams coming into this trend, but neither of them lost by more than 3 TD’s ATS. Looking Forward – Bowling Green lost by 13 ATS and will travel to face Northern Illinois on November 1st.
