Last week we really did not talk a lot about the PAC 12 as we did a podcast on the Big 12 as well as the SEC. This week we are going to add the PAC 12 along with the Big 10 to the mix. The PAC 12 has been up and down the entire year and clearly a difficult conference to handicap. Each week there is a new proclaimed “IT” team or the team that will challenge for a college playoff. In the beginning of the year it was Oregon and USC, then there was talk of Arizona State which quickly died down. Stanford got back into the mix and for a while people were high on Cal, but now they are 2-2 in the conference. Utah was the favorite in the South, but lost big this past week to USC, but still control their own destiny. Point is the PAC 12 is a conference I have been backing out of quite a bit lately, because the oddsmaker’s have been so wrong on the sides it raises a red flag. For instance,
Week 1 – Not hard to screw up the lines this early in the season, but we had Stanford as a 10 point favorite lose on the road against Northwestern. Not many would predict that today.
Week 3– We had USC as a -9.5 favorite at home against Stanford, and USC goes down 41-31 in what was a pretty shocking loss at the time.
Week 4 – There were two games where the line was really off and we had some surprising results. UCLA covered the spread as a 1 point favorite at Arizona by 25 points, and USC who lost huge the week before (20 points of margin ATS), beat Arizona State and covered the spread by 22 points of margin. Oregon was a 10 point favorite against Utah and lost 62-20, an incredible 52 point margin of victory ATS.
Week 5 – Of course that set things up for Arizona State the next week with an inflated line as they were 12.5 point under dogs at UCLA, but get the road victory by 15 points, and 27.5 margin ATS.
Week 6 – The win for USC at Arizona State looks a little better now, and their loss against Stanford not as bad. They are 17 point home favorites against Washington, and lose outright, an incredible 22 point margin of victory ATS for Washington.
Week 7 – Stanford a 6.5 point favorite against UCLA, and both predicted to face off in the PAC 12 Championship which may still happen here. UCLA loses by 21 and I don’t think it was even that close. This set things up well for week 8 for UCLA.
Week 8 – This past weekend we did bet on only 1 Pac 12 game and covered. The first game we will talk about is the one that happened on Friday night.
UCLA vs. California:
UCLA a 3.5 point favorite against Cal, a team getting a lot of credit. They lose the game by 16 points not too bad, but their defense gave up 573 yard to UCLA who were able to run and pass in this game. This was good Josh Rosen who passed 34-47, 399 yards 3TD’s and 0 interceptions. Just looked amazing in this game, and he’s really benefited lately from a running game that is one of the best in the country with Paul Perkins, who actually was shook up in this game.
Outlook – Cal’s value has significantly dropped now in my opinion, but I would be careful about fading them right away. They are at home this week and are 5.5 point under dogs against USC. In the crazy PAC 12 – USC off a big win, and Cal off a big loss we should see Cal covering this spread. The public is loving USC in this one, but the line has gone the other way indicating sharp money. Definitely worth a look here after USC beat a top 5 team this past week they could suffer from a hang over.
UCLA will host Colorado as a 20.5 point favorite and hope to keep the momentum going and I’m sure they will. They are certainly in the driver seat to get to the PAC 12 Championship game. Their next 3 games all should be easy wins before they finish the year at Utah and at USC which will decide their division, hopefully they will be healthy for those games.
Washington State wins 45-42 at Arizona
First of all how could can arizon a be at this point they have been dominated in many of the games against the upper tier of the pac 12, and i guess washington state is making a case that they are to be inlcuded in that group. washington state has some interesting games coming up, but a really good start, luke falk looks perfect for this system he’s completing 73% of his passes and spreading out unlike what connor holladay did in this system. he had 5 td’s 514 passing yards in this game alone and washingto state had 631 yards of total offense around 150 more than arizona.
outlook- Arizona just not as good as many thought entering the year and they don’t get any time to work on it as they head out to the road to face a very good washington defense. no line has been avaialble, but i would probably set it at pk maybe -3 to washington based on what we have seen this season. washington state on the other hand has a huge game at home against stanford they are 12 poitn favorites. i don’t see them being able to slow stanford’s offense down – stanford should be able to run all over them, but stanford’s defense not near what it has been in years past. stanford’s defense has allowed a lot of points thus far to decen to above average offenses, but the problem is they haven’t played many of those. the total on this game opened at 65 which really surprised me, it’ll probably be a pass, but should be an intriguing game.
Utah vs. USC
We gave out a complimentary selection on USC this past week, a play you could have found in the blog or on the site. I thought it was strange they were favored to begine with although I liked USC the week before. The talent gap between these two teams was huge, and I felt USC back at home after the coaching change were ready to show they still have the talent. They were able to force UTAH into 4 turnovers so in reality we got lucky a bit as Travis Wilson of the old came out with 4 interceptions. Just something that can’t happen.
Outlook – I still like this Utah team, but I think they have a tough road ahead they host Oregon State this week, but then they play on the road against Wash, and Arizona home against UCLA. I would think they lose 1 of those 3 games, but if they don’t and they are able to get into the championship and beat Stanford then the playoffs are still in the cards for them.
USC – gets to go back on the road to play Cal, and the are a 6 point favorite this week.. I think we are jumping to some conclusions here, I mean they forced 4 turnovers, and yes Cal has been turning the ball over lately, but Cal will be back at home with extra rest after 2 challenging road games. I’m definitely going to take a serious look at Cal in this game, because I think USC is in a bit of a hang over spot after beating a top 5 team, I don’t care if they were favored. Still a lot of questions about the Trojans that can’t be ignored, and Cal is very hungry and a 6 point under dog at home is a lot of value.
Washington @ Stanford
This game went about as many thought although I was surpired how well Kevin Hogan moved the ball thorugh the air, he made the only game’s turnover which is not a shock, but Stanford still had a 2:1 advantage on the yardage which didn’t shock me. Stanford has proven they can play great defense agasint weak offensive teams. I mean really who have they played? Wash 101st in yards per play, UCLA 24th put up 35 points, Arizona 22nd put up 17, but I think we know Arizona is over rated, Oregon St 105th put up 24, USC 8th, put up 31, UCF, and Northwestern put up 23 points combined and are ranked 126th and 118th. So moving forward before we announce Stanford PAC 12 champions let us see this defense go up against some more talented offenses and dominate. Or how about just a balanced team. Wash State does not have balance as their defense is not very good. Stanford will have major issues against Notre Dame later in the year, Oregon and Cal could also pose threats, but they are at home.
Outlook for Washington – they are still a very young team they held McCaffrey realtively in check which is impressive and not shocking at all. They get Arizona this week and that will be a tough game for Arizona to win. They also host Utah the week after so we are going to find a lot out about this team they need 3 more wins to get to a bowl so this week is crucial, and they will be favored at Oregon State, but that’s a game to watch. Oregon State will likely be winless at that time in the pac 12 and hungry for at least one win, and Washington will be looking ahead to Washington State. Great opportunity for an upset.
WRAP UP – Okay so I think we touched on everything with week 8 and week 9 in the pac 12. Going to be looking at a few games to bet that I mentioned, but remember the variance form week to week in the pac 12 that I started this show talking about. It’s been a crazy year so let’s not get crazy.
The teams I like this week – Cal +6 over USC, and that’s about it. I also mentioned some potential look ahead spots for a few teams later in this season so stay tuned for future pac 12 podcasts.
