Ole Miss @ Memphis
What an upset for Memphis and arguably one of the biggest wins in their history. This also made the AAC look good this past weekend with the upset over an SEC opponent. Memphis defense was probably the most impressive part of this game along with their QB Paxton Lynch who appears to be the real deal. Ole Miss was up and down all day, in all three phases. They were impressive early on offense as they jumped out to a two-score lead behind the passing of Kelly, and a well-executed trick play from wide receiver Laquon Treadwell.
Then, Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch and the Tigers started to figure things out on offense. Lynch matched Kelly throw for throw, and then some. In the first half, Lynch completed 19 of his 26 attempts for 191 yards. Of course his two touchdowns were better than the Kelly’s one. Lynch finished the game with 39 completions for 384 yards and three scores.
I really like this Memphis coach who stated, “I think there was a moment of realization today,” Fuente said. “My message to the team was, you don’t have to be better than you are. You don’t have to be someone you aren’t. The best you is what we need. We need you to prepare and for you to play well.”
Takeaways: Ole Miss has absolutely no balance on offense and rushed for 1.7 yards per carry, and their pass defense was absolutely shredded by Paxton Lynch, a guy who can easily see over the offensive line. Memphis was 60% on third down to Ole Miss 31%. Robert Nkemdiche left the game with a concussion so that could have played a huge factor, but for both of these teams looking ahead to week #8 Ole Miss has a big game against Texas A&M who is off a bad loss to Alabama and are 5 point favorites while Memphis will have it’s hands full on the road against Tulsa as an 11.5 point under dog on Friday night. That looks like a good spot to back Tulsa who lost at East Carolina despite putting up 463 yards.
Alabama @ Texas A&M – our selection on Texas A&M
I recommended Texas A&M to clients, and it was clear that there was a coaching advantage here. I thought Texas A&M had plenty of talent to win this game if they had the right game plan, but it just was not their day. Really the difference in this game was that Alabama could easily run the ball early in this game to get the lead along with the 4 turnovers that Texas A&M QB’s handed them. There was a 93 yard interception return, a 55 yard interception return and 33 yard interception return for TD’s in this game. Otherwise the game was pretty close. I definitely under estimated the Alabama pass defense, because I truly thought the Aggies would have success passing the ball that would have given them the win, but you can’t turn the ball over 4 times, and hand the opposing team 21 points.
Takeaways: If you are able to take the 3 scores away that Alabama had on the turnovers this game probably could have been very different. I see value with the A&M this week against Ole Miss at +6 as they are not nearly as bad as they looked at home and the fact that Ole Miss can’t run the ball makes me feel good about the Aggies chances. The Aggies did hold Alabama to 25% on third down and less than 400 yards overall. They have very good coaching on that side of the ball from Chevis as they were able to stop the running game late. Alabama gets Tennessee this week and will be a 14.5 point favorite and to me that’s too many points.
Florida @ LSU – one game I actually covered on Saturday – write up here.
Florida played a gutsy game, but could not stop the run enough to get the win unfortunately. While we were regularly unlucky in the games on Saturday and Friday (backing a team that had 8 turnovers???), we were fortunate to get the half point cover on Saturday with the Gators. The most surprising part of this game was the QB play on both sides as it was a very clean game. Neither QB threw an interception which completely shocked me as Brandon Harris was just spectacularly efficient with 13/19 202 yards 2 TD’s 0 INT’s. You don’t typically see that type of performance from a below average QB against the Gators, but I guess it helps if you have Lenoard Fournette.
Takeaways: Florida will be just fine with Harris down the stretch. These may be the two best SEC teams, and LSU is still the favorite in my opinion to win the SEC now, but you are going to have to pay a premium to back them. Their defense really does not look quite as good and now they get a talented offense coming in from Western Kentucky. I think they will be playing a high scoring game this week because the Hilltoppers do not play any defense. Florida gets a much needed bye before facing Georgia on neutral field, a game where I really like their chances.
