Auburn vs. Arkansas – 4 Overtimes
This game was not fun for me to be quite honest and I only watched the first over time before switching on the Penn State game at 3:30. I gave out the under as a premium selection and it was 24-24 at the end of regulation, but I’m still confused with how this game ended in regulation that robbed us on the under. Shawn White fumbled, and Arkansas recovered it, but they over ruled, and I still don’t see how the play is not a fumble, and that’s not just sour grapes I truly feel that was an under. Either way it was a tough loss that we made up later in the day.
Outlook – Auburn is a 6 point under dog at home to Ole Miss, which I think they are a decent match up with, because Ole Miss not very good running the ball on the road, but definitely no guarantee that Auburn will stay in that game, but I actually do believe Ole Miss is getting a bit too much credit for their win over A&M which we will get to later, because I clearly was wrong on A&M. Auburn has only 1 guarantee win left on their schedule and a bowl game is definitely not a guarantee. Arkansas get UT Martin this week and that should help their bowl hopes as well as Brett Bielema’s job security. With just 3 wins there are no easy games left with this team with their next 2 road games at Ole Miss and LSU before going home against Miss State & Missouri. Great opportunity to back Arkansas is when they face Miss State who will be looking forward towards the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss.
Tennesse vs. Alabama
This was an extremely interesting game with Tennessee coming off a bye and Alabama a 15.5 point favorite. Both defenses were the story here as both had 5 sacks. This is a huge rivalry game and a game that these two teams always play very close. In the end the Tennessee had a shot to win this game as crazy as that sounds. Tennessee was also able to run the ball better than Alabama in this game which was not too shocking as they do have an added dimension with the mobile QB although Josh Dobbs although he had just 19 yards on 16 carries. Alabama’s rushing #’s were sku’d as Jake Coker accounted for -26 rushing yards on 5 sacks which is a bit concerning, because Tennessee had just 9 sacks in the previous 6 games combined. Derrick Henry still had 143 rushing yards, and wont he game on a 14 yard TD run. I’d be worried about Alabama moving forward.
Outlook – Tennessee plays on the road at Kentucky right now they are a 7.5 point favorite. My money will easily be on the Wildcats this week. Tenn covered the spread by 9.5 points in margin, but that is not an indication of how good they are. They have all the talent in the world, but I’m still not buying into Butch Jones this is a team that always gets up for this Alabama game and struggles the next week particularly on defense. The last two years they gave up 31 and 42 points after Alabama and Kentucky has a really good offense especially at home so I am definitely going to be looking at that game.
Alabama gets the bye before their biggest game of the year against LSU and of course it will be at home. I predict they should be about 4.5 point favorites in that one.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
On last week’s show I said I was going to be playing Vanderbilt, and I’m kicking myself for not doing just that in the end. Really boring game if you ask me, but Vanderbilt wins and they cover with a 10-3 victory. It was a combination of Missouri just being that bad, and Vanderbilt’s defense being extremely under rated. I actually think the job Derek Mason has done here has been pretty impressive. He’s a defensive guy and he’s proving he can improve a team. It’s not showing up on the win loss column, because his offense keeps turning the ball over. They had just 1 turnover in this game which is a big impreovement form previous games – 3, 3, 2, 0, 3, 5, 1. Turnovers have cost this team multiple games. Vanderbilt had had 304 yards to Missouri’s 188 in the game as Vanderbilt only turned the ball over 1 time. Gary Pinkel was in a rebuilding year, and I think this team will be just fine once they develop some talent on the offensive side.
Outlook – Vanderbilt goes on the road to face Houston in an interesting match up they will be a 14.5 point under dog in that game while Missouri gets a much needed bye.
Vanderbilt though has a chance to cover the spread or at least end the hype of Greg Ward as a Heisman finalist. Houston has played just 1 top 75 defensive team all year and they won that game by 3 against Louisville who turned the ball over 4 times. If Vanderbilt doesn’t turn the ball over they cover this spread and maybe even win creating some momentum for the program.
Texas AM vs. Ole Miss
This was really a second dud in a row for the Aggies and they were clearly not ready for this game. I blame the coaching it seems like they really had a hang over after the game against Alabama. I don’t think they are as bad as they looked, but Kyle Allen and the offense were completely dominated. I tried to find a spot where I could grab Ole Miss and cancel my bet in live betting and it just was never presented, because this was the first time the Aggies left the state of Texas and their first true road game. I think they put everything into the Alabama game and realized they were out of the playoff which is silly, because there is so much football to be played.. I have to second guess Kevin Sumlin at this point he really has under achieved with the talent he’s been given the last few years. They put up 192 yards of total offense compared to 471 what is emabarassing is the fact that Memphis held Ole Miss to less than 50 yards of rushing offense and A&M allowed 230.
Outlook – A&M is not this bad, and Ole Miss is not this good. It was simply a team at home hyped up and ready to dominate. Ole Miss covers the spread by 14 poitns of margin and you will see inflated lines this week. A&M gets lucky being able to go back home already and face South Carolina with a new coach and will be 17 point favorites which may be a little low, but I’ll probably pass as this team is probably going to come out flat again. Looking at the schedule they should finish 9-3 with a loss at LSU to close out the season. I mentioned Ole Miss at Auburn earlier as a game I will definitely look at Auburn for I think it’s a good match up for Auburn.
Western Kentucky vs. LSU
simply a tune up for LSU before they go on the road after a bye week to face Alabama. Leonard Fournette had just 150 yards on 26 carries, and looks to be saving himself for the showdown with the Tide.
We went over many of the week 9 outlooks for teams, but..
Game of the week – Georgia vs. Florida – It will be on neutral field, but it is in Jacksonville at Everbank Field where the Gators will still have a good home field advantage. The oddsmakers opened it up at -3 saying both teams are about even and the line has dropped to -2.5. It will be interesting to see where this line goes, but I’d lean towards the Gators. I don’t think either team has a coaching advantage and the Florida Gators defense has been more impressive. Take a look at the Tennessee game.
This game will most certainly decide the SEC East and who will face LSU, Alabama or Ole Miss out of the West in the SEC Championship.
I don’t think Georgia can get to the playoff, but Florida can if they win out including the SEC Championship
What I think happens?
LSU loses to Alabama next week, but beat Ole Miss the following. Alabama faces Florida in the championship and wins and is one of the teams selected into the college playoff. Depending on how LSU looks agaisnt Ole Miss and Alabama they may finish the season with 1 loss and no championship game. There is still a chance they get in, because I think we put them above Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan State along with Clemson and 3 of those 4 teams are going to finish with 1 loss.
