FLORIDA –
The Gators rebounded from their lackluster performance at home against Vanderbilt, and we had them in a teaser which has now gone 18-4 since the beginning of last year. We teased the Gators with South Florida and not only did we win, but they both covered the normal spread in large fashion. The Gators coming off a win ATS by 7 or more points are 1-3 ATS on the season, Moving Forward – they only covered the spread by 3 points this past week so hands off for me. I will say this, Florida has a lot of motivation even against Florida Atlantic. Nobody is giving them a chance in the college football playoff, but this team lost at LSU and that was it. They haven’t looked sexy in any of their games and I would expect the defense to at least come close to shutting out Florida Atlantic.
GEORGIA –
Got a huge win on the road which probably saved Mark Richt’s job. Every time his job seems to go under question he comes up with a huge victory and he was an underdog on the road against Auburn and I backed him and covered. The defense played extremely well, but the offense is very predictable and one dimensional. I would find it hard backing this team. They are 1-3 overall following a win or loss ATS by 7 or more points.
Moving Forward – This week off a win by 7 or more points is a good time to fade. They really have nothing to play for and get a quality Georgia Southern team with a spread that is really weird at 14 points, 14.5 depending on where you look. They have Georgia Tech on deck so I guess they are playing for a 10 win season. Definitely going to circle this match up.
TENNESSEE-
Tennessee had their essential bye this past week against North Texas at home as 41 point favorites and only won 24-0. Very surprising considering how North Texas played earlier in the year, but Tennesse really seemed to hold back in this game averaged 4.9 yards per carry and doubled the Mean Green’s total yardage.
Moving Forward: This is a team that has gone 2-3 ATS following a win and 1-1 following a loss ATS by 7 or more points. They have been a difficult team to read, and I think the line is a bit inflated here on the road against Missouri who I backed as my top play last week, but Missouri just did get a emotional win and it will be interesting how they can get back up for this game against Tennessee, but their bowl hopes depend on it.
MISSOURI –
Speaking of Missouri. I backed them last week against BYU, and their defense backed it all up like I thought they would. I have seen zero improvement from Drew Lock their freshmen QB, and the play calling on offense has just been awful. This is a team that can run the ball and needs to do just that, but they continue to put the ball in the hands of Lock who has been atrocious with his decision making. The kid has a very strong and accurate arm and I’m sure the future is bright, but Lock has a 97 QB rating with no signs of encouragement. Missouri is 2-4 ATS following a win or loss ATS by 7+.
Moving Forward – This week they fall into that situation where they are off a win by 7 or more poitns as they were 6.5 dogs and won outright over BYU. It was not a dominating performance and they definitely are not getting credit from oddsmakers with the line this week vs. Tennessee, but if they run the ball they will have a chance to win this game. It’s a pass for me unfortunately as there are many other games with strong leans on the schedule although it is enticing to see a dominating defense getting over a TD at home.
KENTUCKY –
What a huge disappointment this team was this past week. One of my few loses, and they definitely deserved to win. I simply blame the coaching. In my analysis I said if they just stuck to the run they’d be fine, but Mark Stoops was stupid and they lose ATS by a half point to Vandebilt. Running the ball 37 times averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and throwing the ball 34 times for a total of 127 yards. They had 3 turnovers, and many other mistakes including an interception returned for a TD, and missed field goals that cost them a cover.
Moving Forward- Kentucky is 1-4 ATS following a loss ATS by 7 or more. Many expected more out of this team and 5 straight loses have not been a good result. They get an easy win against Charlotte this week with a game against Lousiville with their bowl hopes on the line to close it all out. I’ll definitely be looking at that game as I don’t see how we wouldn’t have value on Kentucky after 6 straight loses ATS. Maybe this coaching staff finally figures out that they should be running the ball 70% of the time.
VANDERBILT –
Two gritty and gutty performances by this team in back to back weeks against Florida, and then Kentucky to get 2 covers ATS, but this team is not any better on offense than when the season started. The defense is the real deal, but can definitely be run on. This is still a dangerous team that has gone 4-1 ATS following a win or loss ATS by 7+ points.
Moving Forward – I don’t see anybody rushing to the ticket window to play this team. They’ll host Texas A&M this week as a 7 point dog, and I’ll probably stay away, but the following week against Tennessee is really interesting to me depending on what happens this week. I’m unsure if a bowl game is more important to this team than a win over Tennessee. They do have to win out to get into a bowl game.
SOUTH CAROLINA –
South Carolina is 1-2 ATS following a loss ATS by 7 or more points and 2-1 following a win. To me that just means Vegas is surprised at how well they have played, and are not afraid to give them an inflated line after they win. However, the game against Florida was not nearly as close although I was impressed with their improvements on defense. South Carolina was still out gained by 203 yards. Florida dominated time of possession by 20 mintues as well, and if they didn’t turn the ball over in key parts of the field this could have been a bigger win for Florida.
Moving Forward- South Carolina is the only team out of a playoff officially in the SEC at 3-7. They have a huge look ahead spot this week with Clemson on the 28th for a shot to pull a magical upset against their in state rival. This team has been more competitive down the stretch. No spread on their game with Citadel, and I would look to back the Gamecocks against Clemson who they’ll host as large under dogs. I may even sprinkle a bit on the money line when that line is released and I expect it to be over 2 TD’s for sure.
