Have you ever heard the phrase it starts up front? If you are a football fan you have heard this many times. It’s a huge reason why running backs do not carry as much value these days. I will break down the top 10 offensive lines as far as returning starts is concerned. All 10 of these teams have over 100 career starts. This is not a sexy position so rest assured we will find value from a betting perspective with these teams in 2016. Most interesting about these top 10 experienced offensive lines six are replacing their starting QB and some big names too like Matt Johnson, Brandon Doughty, Cody Kessler, and Jake Rudock. Four teams are replacing their top RB, but only two replace their top receiver.
1.) Bowling Green (MAC) – 140 career starts returning
- 58th in sack % allowed
- 47th YPC
- 4th in Adjusted Line Yards
- Projected starting 5 average weight 300.4lbs
- Lost QB Matt Johnson
- Lost #1 RB, and #1WR
I’m expecting better raw stats from this group this year despite everything they are losing on offense. We spoke about this team in our last podcast in terms of experienced defenses. They lost their star QB Matt Johnson who had 46 TD to 8 INT’s. They lost Travis Greene who rushed for 15 TD’s and 5.8 YPC. They lost Their top 2 receivers who combined for more than 175 receptions and 2500 yards in Gehric Dieter, and Roger Lewis. As far as their offensive line goes they lose just 1 starter and return Jacob Bennett on the blind side who was 2nd team All MAC and should slide into 1st team. Ryan Hunter is another kid to watch at Guard. Betting Impact: The experience on the offensive line will definitely play dividends. I expect to have some betting value because of the experienced defense and the offense changes at the skill position.
2.) North Carolina (ACC) – 131 career starts returning.
- 2nd in YPC
- 30th in sack % allowed
- 3rd in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 298lbs
- Lost QB Marquise Williams
The Tarheels lose their best offensive linemen in Landon Turner who was an All-American, but return everyone else. They will have a very experienced group up front led by two 2nd team All-ACC guys in Jon Heck and Caleb Peterson. 4 of their 5 projected starters will be seniors and I expect the center Lucas Crowley to also step up to earn All-ACC honors this year. The problem will be replacing their QB Marquise Williams who was also their second leading rusher and best receiver in Quinshad Davis.
Betting Impact: I have a lot of confidence in Mitch Trubisky in this offense. Every chance he has gotten he was been spectacular. In relief last year he completed 40-47 passes for 6TD’s and 0 INT’s. He’s got Elijah Hood to lean on in the running game, and Ryan Switzer and Bug Howard at receiver and their defense should be better as well with 78% of the production returning.
3.) Western Kentucky (CUSA) 131 career starts returning.
- 46th in YPC
- 4th in sack % allowed
- 30th in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 301lbs
- Lost QB Brandon Doughty (48/9)
This was extremely impressive from this group last year behind their star QB now playing in the NFL. This group will only get stronger in 2016 as they don’t lose a single starter and return the blind side Forest Lamp who was a 1st team All-CUSA last year. Brandon Ray at LG will also be in the mix for an All Conference selection as could Darrell Williams.
Betting Impact: We have a non-power 5 team losing a star QB like Brandon Doughty who threw 48 TD’s to 9 interceptions. Public perception is that this team will take a step back, but I really like what Jeff Brohm has done it’s his third year as head coach he’s brough in some good coaches again this year and this offense returns 2 of their top 3 receivers in Taywan Taylor and Nick Norris as well as a trio of RB two of which have a 1,000 yard season under their belt. Leon Allen missed last year and returns after he had 1,542 yards and 13 TD’s in 2014.
4.) USC (PAC12) 131 career starts returning.
- 58th in YPC
- 96th in sack % allowed
- 55th in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 321lbs
- Lost QB Cody Kessler
Another team who will have to overcome losing their star QB as USC will have to replace Cody Kesler’s performance which was nothing special last year 29 TD’s and 7 INT’s. I like the ratio, but typically you would see higher TD numbers in an offense like this. Max Browne should get the nod and he’s a blue chip guy with a ton of potential at 6’5 and he gets his skill guys back at RB and WR, every single one of them. The offensive line which struggled to protect the QB should get better this year led by Zach Banner, a 2nd team All-PAC12. The talent is there with all upper classmen so we will see if they can do a better job. I expect significant improvements. Betting Impact: USC already expected to be one of the favorites to win the PAC12 South as they did last year, but with a better record. We are going to see right away what this team is made of against Alabama in week 1, and a road visit to Stanford in week 3. They are 10 point under dogs against Alabama which should have some value when the public gets involved and pushes it past that number and this may be one of my favorite college football picks in week 1.
5.) Eastern Michigan (MAC) 123 career starts returning.
- 49th in YPC
- 54th in sack % allowed
- 86th in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 305.6lbs
- Lost #1 RB Darius Jackson (1078, 14TD)
Chris Creighton begins his third year at Eastern Michigan and this is a team that did show some promise last year on the offensive side of the ball. This is a program that hasn’t finished above .500 since 1995 and haven’t been to a bowl game since 1987, but they are arguably one of my surprise teams in the MAC this year and it starts up front with an offensive line that was above average. They return their 4 star QB in Brogan Roback who should be in line for a great year behind a senior laden offensive line that returns everyone. Expect improvements amongst this group that was already pretty good a year ago ranking 37th in power success rate. Andrew Wylie and Darien Terrel lead the group on the right side with 69 combined starts and come in at 311 and 333 lbs.. Run to the right. Betting Impact: Of course if they take my advice and run to the right that is.. There will be value on this team that won 1 game last year. There is an excellent shot for them to start 2-2 or 3-1. To go bowling they will have to close the season with wins at home against Northern Illinois and Central Michigan if only those games were earlier in the season.
6.) Arkansas State (SUN BELT) 109 career starts returning.
- 38th in YPC
- 79th in sack % allowed
- 3rd in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 292.8lbs
- Lost Starting QB Fredi Knighten
- Lost #1 RB Michael Gordon & top 2 WR.
Arkansas State has the best recruiting rank over the last 5 years in the Sun Belt and despite losing some key guys I expect them to be right in the mix again once they find a QB. It should be easier knowing they have an experienced offensive line returning. However, they must protect the QB better than a year ago. They won’t have Knighten’s ability to escape the pocket as all recruits are considered pocket QB’s. The offensive line however will be the glue that holds this thing together as they return everyone led by a pair of 1st team All-Sun Belt offensive linemen in Colton Jackson at RG, and Jemar Clark at LT. I expect Devin Mondie to also step up as a Junior at Center to have a big year.
Betting Impact: If this offense was going to run a lot I would feel very confident in backing them, but we will see what their strategy is. Despite losing Michael Gordon at RB they have Warren Wand who had 6 yards per carry a year ago along with a couple other guys. The offensive line is legit in the running game. The opening game against Toledo where they opened up as dogs is one I had circled, but that quickly moved to Arkansas State -3. This team has a lot of transfers from Oklahoma, Alabama, TCU and should have hidden value in week 2 and week 3 as they go on the road to face Auburn and Utah State as big time under dogs.
7.) Charlotte (CUSA) 106 career starts returning.
- 119th in YPC
- 116th in sack % allowed
- 124th in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 301.4LBS
Charlotte won all but two games last year and are having a tough time adjusting to the FBS world, but I expect another improvement in 2016. This is one of the nation’s most experienced teams. There is nothing sexy about this team on paper other than they return lots of experience with senior QB’s, senior RB’s, senior WR’s, and 5 of their top 6 offensive linemen are seniors led by LG Casey Perry who comes in at 336lbs. This was an unlucky team in 2015 with a -13 turnover rank. Stay tuned for a future podcast to find out what that means for a team. Betting Impact: Listen I’m not ready to waive the flag for Charlotte here and back them in a college football pick, but I do see them winning 3-5 games this year and maybe in the mix for a bowl game in their last game of the season. They could be favorites in 5 games at home and I like their chance to make some noise here. There is not one game in particular until I get to match ups, but I will have my eye on Charlotte. They are 38.5 point under dogs at Louisville to open the season.
8.) Michigan (BIG10) 105 career starts returning.
- 73rd in YPC
- 26th in sack % allowed
- 52nd in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 307.4lbs
- Lost QB Jake Rudock
Michigan over achieved last year with Jim Harbaugh’s first year and they should be in the mix for a Big Ten title when you look at what Ohio State and Michigan State lost. It is amazing to see how much this offensive line has improved over and they will have 4 starters returning, 3 of which will be seniors led by Kyle Kalis at RG. Michigan got worse in terms of yards per rush from 2014 to 2015, but I expect them to average over 5 yards per carry this season. The biggest improvement under Harbough was sacks allowed. In 2014 they were ranked 96th and they finish 26th a year ago. That should be good news for John O’Korn, transfer form Houston who I expect to take over the starting QB over Shane Morris. Betting Impact: This is not likely a team to back as I don’t expect value because of the hype. Looking at their schedule they should be double digit favorites in every game until October 29th when they visit Michigan State. They may have value at Iowa in November or at Ohio State at the end of November, but that’s a long ways away.
9.) Kent State (MAC) 105 career starts returning.
- 111th in YPC
- 17th in sack % allowed
- 123rd in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 297.2lbs
- Lost #1 RB Trayion Durham
Kent State already has the defense for a MAC title run so it’s all about the offense putting up some good numbers and it starts up front with this offensive line. The offensive line was pretty terrible last year other than protecting the QB as they were 17th in sack % allowed and 10th on passing downs allowing just 3.8% sack rate. Maybe this team should pass more because they could not run the ball ranking 11th in yards per carry. Overall this is one of the most experienced teams, but their 5 year recruiting ranking is one of the worst in the MAC. Betting Impact: I do not like them against Penn State as they are only 20 point under dogs, but once they get into conference play in October this team will be worth a look opening with Akron so to be continued.
10.) Oklahoma State (BIG12) 101 career starts returning.
- 115th in YPC
- 65th in sack % allowed
- 127th in adjusted line yards
- Projected starting 5 weight – 313lbs
Oklahoma State’s running game was very bad a year ago and even the adjusted stats look bad, but the good news is they were 19th in pass protection on passing downs and they return 4 of their 5 starters who will either be juniors or seniors. The problem is none of which made any honors and none of which are 4 star recruits. However, this offense should be helped by the transfer of the son of legendary Oklahoma State alum Barry Sanders who comes over from Stanford. They get another transfer that should help in the secondary, but it’s surprising to see an offensive line as big as they are not dominate more in the running game, but I expect them to be back in the top 60 as they were in 2013 given the experience. 2014 they returned just 34 career starts, and 2015 they returned 64, but 23 came from a UAB transfer. This should easily be the best offensive line in a few years. Betting Impact: I’m expecting big things from Oklahoma State again this year, but they have some tough road games at Baylor, at Kansas State, at TCU and at Oklahoma. However, I have the game in week 4 at Baylor circled as a possible upset and we should get 7-10 points to work with especially if Oklahoma State struggles the week before at Baylor.
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