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Vegas Mistakes – College Football Report Week 10

November 7, 2017 | Posted By Freddy Wills

Last week my favorite podcast leans went 6-2 ATS.  Unfortunately only 4 made it onto my card and I went 2-2 ATS for those.  We went 5-5 ATS and move to 48-52 ATS -36% ROI.  Still confident we will show a profit by the end of the year.  Last year from November 3rd on we had a 44.36% ROI to put things in perspective.

Our Friday commute podcast was a dud again this week as we gave out Texas thinking Sam Ehlinger would play.  He did not.  However, we did pick a winner in our free play on Vanderbilt -10.5, and our premium pick newsletter play on West Virginia -3 was also a winner.  So plays available to you last week went 2-1 ATS at no cost I think that’s the third week in a row we went 2-1 or better.  So make sure you SUBSCRIBE at Freddywills.com.

My end of year package has also been decreased down to $175and I’m guaranteeing 35% ROI or your $$ BACK! Also guaranteed 5% ROI package for week 11 only up on freddywills.com if you are interested in my NCAAF Predictions

  • Iowa covered by 52 points ATS over Ohio State. What a crazy game and I guess it shouldn’t surprise you much that Iowa defeated a ranked opponent at home.  They nearly upset Penn State, they upset Michigan last year.  Iowa only outgained Ohio State by 116 yards in this one, but they were +4 in TO Margin.  Ohio State can still get into the Big Ten Championship game and back into the college football playoff.  They’ll need Oklahoma to lose along the way and they really need Notre Dame to lose.  It starts this week at home against Michigan State who shocked Penn State this past week.  They are expected to bounce back as 15.5 point favorites, but I feel like that is just too much.
  • FIU covered the spread by 14 over UTSA. I played UTSA who I felt was by far the better team, but they turned the ball over multiple times in the red zone.  They had 5 trips inside FIU’s territory and had just 1.4 points per trip.  Betting Take – FIU has been playing great of late, but now they will start getting credit and I think it’s the right time to probably fade them.  In fact they will make the list of one of my favorite fade candidates this week.
  • Bowling Green covered by 26.5 points ATS over Kent State College Football Picks Against The Spread. Not much to really talk about here.  Two bad teams that you should look to fade the rest of the way.
  • Eastern Michigan covered the spread by 17 points over Ball State. Eastern Michigan has been playing a ton of close games.  They need to win out to get to a bowl game.  They outplayed Ball State thoroughly in this one scoring 7 TD’s on their 7 trips inside the Ball State territory.  Now that Eastern Michigan’s schedule has eased up I expect them to flex their muscles a bit.  They will be short favorites at Central Michigan this week and I think they are clearly the better team right now.  Although it’s tough to travel on a short week this is not that far of a trip.
  • Temple covered the spread over Navy by 14.5 points. This was disappointing for Navy if you ask me who had higher hopes this year, but still have the Commander in Chief trophy to play for.  Temple did have a bye to plan for that game so it was not a complete surprise.  Temple now goes on the road to face Cincinnati in an interesting sandwich spot as they’ll host Central Florida the week after. They are 2.5 point favorites on Friday at Cinci, but I’d lean towards the Bearcats who looked good themselves against Tulane.  Navy a 4.5 point favorite and I’d also look to back them off a loss they usually bounce back and they are facing an SMU team that gave all they had against Central Florida this past weekend.
  • Idaho covered by 15 points over Troy, but were outgained in the game. Idaho is off this week while Troy is an interesting 17 point road favorite against Coastal Carolina who nearly upset Arkansas.  I wouldn’t touch that game, but Troy seems to have that bad week, and then bounce back in a blowout so I wouldn’t be shocked to see it happen again. If you remember they beat LSU on the road, then lost to South Alabama, and then beat Georgia State by 24 on the road.  One issue is Troy actually beat Idaho but only by 3 points.
  • Utah covered by 21.5 points against the spread over UCLA after being on the not cover list back to back weeks. This was one of our winners this week, but it is worth noting that Josh Rosen did not make the trip, and this was a sloppy game early for both teams.  Just ugly to watch and UCLA still doesn’t have very good coaching in my opinion.  I felt UCLA could have shortened the game and pounded the ball in the middle where they just were bigger and stronger, but they went away from that and Utah started to dominate and take over in the second half with their depth.
  • Missouri covered the spread by 27.5 points over Florida. Missouri is on my fade list after covering by 4 TD’s each of the last 3 weeks.  I thought Florida would have come with more fight, but it was obvious they didn’t.  Missouri is now an 11 point favorite against Tennessee.  It’s hard to fade them again especially Tennessee who is in a similar role to Florida.  Not going to a bowl game, but are at least playing better of late.
  • Wisconsin covered in misleading fashion over Indiana by 17 points. Indiana just not a second half team this year.  This was a close game for 3 quarters.  Although Wisconsin’s depth took over it was unfortunate to see all the turnovers Indiana had.  I also didn’t really like their game plan.  Unfortunately we gave this out to clients and Indiana just wasn’t in it for 4 quarters. Wisconsin has Iowa this week I was going to look to take Iowa, but Iowa is off such a huge win.  Iowa does have the type of team that can beat Wisconsin.  They can stop the run, and they can pass the ball.  The key is if they can pass protect.  Iowa traditionally has one of the best offensive lines year in and year out.  They just faced Ohio State’s defensive line and they were only sacked 1 time or 3.03% of the drop backs. Wisconsin is more of a blitzing team so it will be interesting to see how Iowa can pick that up and stay in this game.  Last year they defeated Michigan at home then went on the road to face Illinois and won 28-0.
  • Baylor covered over Kansas this week by 22 points for their first win. This one frustrates me a little, because Baylor finally decided not to mix the QB’s up which really messes with the flow of the game. As I learned the week before when I backed Baylor.
  • Umass covered by 23 points over Miss State. We spoke about this game last week it was one of my favorite leans.  I did not play because Andrew Ford the star QB from Umass was ruled out.  It was a play for me otherwise.  Miss State has a huge game against Alabama this week who have just dominated on the road in the SEC.
  • Army covered the spread by 27.5 over Air Force setting up a very exciting match-up between Army/Navy in a couple weeks for the Commander in Chief Trophy. Army has been truly impressive in their last few games against Navy & now Air Force.  Jeff Monken really has this team playing well as they shut Air Force out here outgained them by 202 yards without throwing a pass.  I think there is value to be had on Air Force moving forward.  Especially now that they will be under dogs.  We know they can beat any team in the conference and they’ll need 2 wins in their final 3 games.  I actually like them this week against Wyoming.  Army has Duke at home and are a short dog.  It’s hard to fade this Army team, but this would be the week to do it in my opinion.  David Cutcliffe is used to defending the triple option facing Georgia Tech every year.  They actually beat Army last year as well and Army here is coming off a huge win.  It’s not often I’d say fade Army, but It’s just a bad situation for them with Duke also coming off a bye.
  • Miami made a statement and covered the spread by 16 points over Virginia Tech. Miami still has a lot to prove, but they’ll get their chance this week with Notre Dame coming to town.  They are 3 point home dogs, and I think they’ll take that to heart.  I would strongly lean towards Miami, but really need to look at the game more.
  • Washington covered the spread by 17.5 points against Oregon. At this point it’s hard to fade Washington after their 38-3 performance over Oregon.  Holding Oregon to just 278 yards and only 2 trips inside their territory.  Washington is the only hope for the PAC 12 to get into the college football playoff, but they must win out and get some impressive wins along the way.  They are definitely capable of it and they’ll get their shot this week on Friday against Stanford on the road where they are a 6.5 point favorite.  Stanford has not looked good at all of late and if you remember they lost at Washington last year 6-44.
  • Coastal Carolina nearly upset Arkansas as they cover the spread by 23.5 points.
  • Utah State covered the spread by 17 points over New Mexico. Utah State has a bye this week.
  • San Diego State covered the spread by 21.5 over San Jose State.
  • La Monroe covered by 15.5 over App State.
  • UAB keeps rolling with a 22 point ATS cover over Rice. UAB is a 7 point dog at UTSA who lost this past week.

Teams on this list multiple times for covering the spread 14+ – Taking away week 1

What is interesting is 5 of the teams on this list just moved to the list in week 8 for not covering the spread by more than 2 TD’s. Proving our theory a bit. In my eyes there are 3 teams to possibly fade. Iowa State, Notre Dame, and Boston College, Arizona, FAU, and others.

  1. Missouri 3x – 3 weeks in a row – 27.5, 26.5, 33 the last 3 weeks and have covered 5 straight weeks.
  2. Boston College 3x – (bye last week) 3 weeks in a row – 38, 38, 22 point covers ATS. Did not play LW, they are +3 vs. NC State this week.
  3. Notre Dame 5x (4 of last 6 weeks had a bye) – Did not cover the spread last week
  4. Iowa State 5x (4 weeks in a row) – did not cover this past week.
  5. FIU 3X (3 out of L4 weeks) – They are a 9.5 point favorite this week.
  6. Utah State 4x (4 of last 7) was on the not cover list, then the cover list the last 2 weeks.
  7. Marshall 4x (4 of last 6 weeks) Faced off against FAU who had covered 4 of 5.
  8. FAU 5X (4 of last 6 weeks) – Did not cover last week. They have weaknesses.
  9. Umass 3 x (2 of the last 3) covered big against Miss State (SEC opponent). Eliminated from a bowl.
  10. UAB 2x (2 weeks in a row)
  11. Pittsburgh 2x (2 weeks in a row) – Had a bye last week
  12. Miss State 4x (2 weeks in a row) – moved to the do not cover list.
  13. Arizona State 3x (2 out of 4 weeks) Did not cover week #10.
  14. Arizona 3 x (2 out of 4 weeks) Did not cover week #10.
  15. Ohio State 3x (3 of last 6) – Missed covering the spread big by 52 points
  16. Wash State 2x (2 of last 5)
  17. Nevada 2x (2 of last 5)
  18. Arkansas State 2x (2 out of the last 3) – had a bye.
  19. Fresno State 2x (2 out of the last 4 weeks) Haven’t covered in 2 weeks.

Fading teams that made the list 2 or more times in a row

Teams 2 in a row 8-7 ATS Week 11

2 out of 3 weeks 2-4 ATS

2 out of 4 2-2 ATS

Teams 3 in a row 2-2 ATS

Teams 3 of 4 0-1 ATS

Teams 4 in a row 0-1 ATS

 

Teams on the list multiple times for not covering the spread 14+

2x in a row Back 10-2 ATS 2 losses covered the following week. Week #10 – Back Virginia & Utah.

2 of 3 Back 5-7 ATS

2 of 4 Back 4-3 ATS

2 of 5 Back 1-4 ATS

3 of 4 Push

3 of 5 2-1 ATS

3 of 6 3-1 ATS

  • Florida 2 weeks in a row – 7.5 point dog this week.
  • Ball State 4x (4 of last 5 weeks including 2 weeks in a row) Ball State +32.5 at Northern Illinois.
  • Kent State 3x (2 of last 3 weeks)
  • Troy 2x (2 of last 4 weeks)
  • UCLA 3X (2 of last 4 weeks)
  • Kansas 4x (3 of last 5 weeks)
  • Arkansas 3x (2 of last 5 weeks)
  • New Mexico 2x ( 2 of last 4 weeks)
  • Oregon 4x (3 of last 5 weeks)
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