We are looking at the power 5 conference and breaking down 10 teams we feel are going to be surprise teams. These are teams that will not be in the top 10 of the pre-season poll which looks something like this: Our goal is for you to find value with these 10 teams we rank so you can bet on them throughout the season when it matters. These are also top notch teams I feel have a shot to break into the top 10 and make some noise with some of these teams having shots at getting into the college football playoff. These teams are all part of my college bowl predictions. 10.) North Carolina Tar Heels (Vegas win total odds O/U 8.5 wins) North Carolina lost their senior QB from a year ago in Marquise Williams, but I have them as one of my surprise teams, because they have the potential to be a dangerous team again this year. First of all they have 78% of the defense returning from last year. The bigger key is the fact that they will have 4 of their 5 starting offensive lineman returning from a year ago and a QB with pretty good potential in Mitch […]
Read more..Have you ever heard the phrase it starts up front? If you are a football fan you have heard this many times. It’s a huge reason why running backs do not carry as much value these days. I will break down the top 10 offensive lines as far as returning starts is concerned. All 10 of these teams have over 100 career starts. This is not a sexy position so rest assured we will find value from a betting perspective with these teams in 2016. Most interesting about these top 10 experienced offensive lines six are replacing their starting QB and some big names too like Matt Johnson, Brandon Doughty, Cody Kessler, and Jake Rudock. Four teams are replacing their top RB, but only two replace their top receiver. 1.) Bowling Green (MAC) – 140 career starts returning 58th in sack % allowed 47th YPC 4th in Adjusted Line Yards Projected starting 5 average weight 300.4lbs Lost QB Matt Johnson Lost #1 RB, and #1WR I’m expecting better raw stats from this group this year despite everything they are losing on offense. We spoke about this team in our last podcast in terms of experienced defenses. They lost […]
Read more..Listen to the podcast below or read the article – Top 10 College Football Experienced Defenses For Bettors 2016 I’m talking about defenses that return the majority of their guys and or brought in new coaches and systems and will be under dogs early in the season and key teams to look at for college football picks. You won’t get this from any other blogger or podcast. I’m not only talking about the SEC, but I have teams with value from the following conferences Big 10, SEC, Independent, AAC, Sun Belt, This is no particular order so let’s get things kicked off with the list. List
Read more..Team Defense, one of the things I love to look at in college football is team defense. I typically lean towards taking under dogs and strong defenses. It’s not a sexy winning formula, but it has worked for me in the past. Instead of breaking down the top 10 college football defenses I am breaking down the top defenses that I believe will make an impact to your wallet if you pay attention early in the season. The biggest reasons why are returning performers when compared to “public perception” on that defense. I’m talking about defenses that return the majority of their guys and or brought in new coaches and systems and will be under dogs early in the season and key teams to look at for college football picks. You won’t get this from any other blogger or podcast. I’m not only talking about the SEC, but I have teams with value from the following conferences Big 10, SEC, Independent, AAC, Sun Belt, This is no particular order so let’s get things kicked off with the list. INDIANA (BIG TEN) – Return 82.63% of their defensive production from 2015. The defense side of the ball is a typical […]
Read more..This article goes over teams with close wins and losses by a TD or less from 2015. This is all according to the great Phil Steele who I value quite a bit. I don’t think anyone in the industry works harder than he does on college football content. The basis of this article is I take his hard work and data and turn it into useful sports betting advice. His articles on close wins, and close losses are ideal for this because you have a handful of team that are going to have value in 2016 or no value in 2016 based on their luck from a year ago. So let’s explain the concept that Phil Steel talks about in his magazine. Essentially he looks at any teams with 3 or more net close loses or 3 or more net close wins. What he constitutes as a close win or close loss is by a TD or less. Looking back at history he has made a great case for the teams with 3 or more net close losses to have a better record the next year and teams with 3 or more net close wins have a worse record the […]
Read more..There are now 128 FBS teams and only 31 head coaches have been with that team for more than 5 years. The head coaching carousel has taken on lots of changes over the last few years and some of big moves that can have a dramatic impact on your bankroll if you are not paying attention. Not only do you have to keep a close eye on the head coaching moves, but also the assistant coaching moves. I do this every season as part of my due diligence in selecting NCAAF picks. You can read the article below or listen to my podcast where I break down the top 10 in no particular order! Jim Grobe – Baylor Bears. This one is an interesting move and it seems more like a downgrade when you consider Grobe comes over from Wake Forest where he coached for 12 years. Grobe had been out of coaching for a few years and this is considered an interim head coaching job for the Baylor Bears. This all happened after Art Briles was fired, and athletic director Ian McCaw resigned after an investigator concluded that the two obstructed and misled investigations into allegations of sexual assault […]
Read more..Check out my podcast as I talk about: Predict your profit with my prediction profit tool #6 – Greg Ward. Ward was one of 2 QB’s in 2015 to throw for 2,00 and run for 1,000 yards the other one will come on this list later. What was impressive for Ward was he hit on 67% of his throws and Houston lost the only game he missed. Ward is a clear dark horse for the Heisman this year. #5 Seth Russel – Baylor has a great system for QB’s as was proven last year when they had to go deep into their depth chart. They showed that Jarret Stidham who started 3 games was almost as effective as Russel. Russell is back and I see no reason why he won’t be the starter and put up huge numbers with a talented receiver corps. #4 Baker Mayfield – He was a Heisman trophy front runner at the end of last year, but lost some ground when he missed a game. Many people may not like Mayfield because he wears his heart on his sleeve and plays a passionate brand of football that may be compared to Tim Tebow. Mayfield completed 68% […]
Read more..For a rule of thumb my money management strategy has not changed over my professional handicapping career. I wager 1-5.5% of my bank roll. 5.5% on my most confident plays and 1% on my least confident plays and it has produced huge results, especially in college football. The purpose of this article is to compare betting on sports with the stock market against good growth stock mutual funds with long term yearly ROI’s of around 10-12% according to the market average. You can expect 12% yearly growth in the stock market if you know what you are doing. Actually it’s not that hard as long as you stick to simple plan and don’t get too greedy. Here is a great article on the 12% reality, “The current average annual return from 1926, the year of the S&P’s inception, through 2011 is 11.69%. That’s a long look back, and most people aren’t interested in what happened in the market 80 years ago.” Now that’s great when you are talking about investing and earning a return on your money. Say you put in $10,000 a year into the S&P or similar growth stock mutual funds over a 7 year period. This is what […]
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Read more..FLORIDA – The Gators rebounded from their lackluster performance at home against Vanderbilt, and we had them in a teaser which has now gone 18-4 since the beginning of last year. We teased the Gators with South Florida and not only did we win, but they both covered the normal spread in large fashion. The Gators coming off a win ATS by 7 or more points are 1-3 ATS on the season, Moving Forward – they only covered the spread by 3 points this past week so hands off for me. I will say this, Florida has a lot of motivation even against Florida Atlantic. Nobody is giving them a chance in the college football playoff, but this team lost at LSU and that was it. They haven’t looked sexy in any of their games and I would expect the defense to at least come close to shutting out Florida Atlantic. GEORGIA – Got a huge win on the road which probably saved Mark Richt’s job. Every time his job seems to go under question he comes up with a huge victory and he was an underdog on the road against Auburn and I backed him and covered. The defense […]
Read more..More or less my podcast which you can listen to here, but if you’d rather read it here it goes: Today we are going to get into the SEC in the same way as well as break down some of the upcoming match ups, and recap week 11 as we had a ton of interesting things happen. I’m very excited as we look towards week 12 which should be our 4th profitable week in a row. Overall we went 7-4 ATS on the week (3-1 in SEC games) 5-2 on Saturday an d are 22-8-1 ATS the last 3 weeks of college football. You know I’ve said it over and over. I never lie about my records. If you listen to this show you know that I’m extremely humble. I’m never ready to stop working, because I’ve had a little luck. It’s about the long term profitability. I may not be on top this year, but I have profited, and in the end I will profit. I’m dedicated to giving you the best analysis for your picks. You’ll have some handicappers out there that don’t even release an analysis and only a play. I’m ranked #1 in overall profit on […]
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