I took a deep look at the ACC to find out where Vegas is in the market on these teams and just how accurate they are when they release a line. Notice Vegas sometimes will release a line to attract action on one side, and other times they are extremely sharp. For instance teams like Virginia, and Boston College and Pitt. Vegas has been extremely sharp in their games. Only 6 times in those 3 teams games has Vegas been off by more than 7 points. For the conference as a whole Vegas has been off by a TD or more 54 times out of 127 possible opportunities. 58% of the time Vegas will be accurate with the line they post by less than a TD. What we hope to see is what the team does the next week ATS. In this situation we are looking for wins ATS the following week the team did not cover the spread by 7 points or less, and a loss following a week where they covered the spread by 7 points or more. Teams following a win ATS by a TD of 7 or more are a combined 9-20 ATS, if you simply […]
Read more..Illinois vs. Penn State – What an ugly game for Illinois who were only 5.5 point under dogs coming into this contest, but they put up just 167 total yards while Penn State nearly doubled them in first downs and had 400 total yards. The biggest shock for me was that Illinois had been playing well then they lose a tough one at Iowa go on a bye and lose at home to Wisconsin 13-24, and now 39-0 to Penn State. This was the first time Christian Hackenberg looked great all season 21-29 266 yards and 2 TD’s and Penn State is that very tricky team for Michigan and Michigan State down the stretch. Outlook – Penn State goes on the road to face Northwestern, who is off a bye and will be 2.5 point under dogs. It’s hard to bet on this Northwestern team, but Penn State is probably looking towards Michigan at home the following week, but Penn State really seems to be putting things together on both side of the ball, I think Saquan Barkley’s health at RB is the key for Penn State, and I’ll probably pass on this game, although I think it raises a […]
Read more..Central Michigan has been on a roll ATS covering 7 of their 8 games this season. WE were lucky to cash in on Ball State last week, and Central Michigan has to go on the road for the second consecutive game against Akron who is well rested coming off a bye. I love to back the better defense coming off the bye. Although Akron gave up 59 points in their last game that was on the road against Matt Johnson, and the 59 points were a bit misleading as they turned the ball over 4 times. Bowling Green has a better offense and defense than the Chippewas. Akron has a lot to play for ahead of them, and a 5-0 finish is not out of the question especially if they can win this game at home. This is a team that needs to run the ball to have success with 5.56 ypc in wins and 2.96 in losses. They are lucky because Central Michigan is allowing 4.95 on the road and have allowed more than their opponents average in 3 of those 4 road games. Their pass defense is also very suspect allowing a 152 QB rating on the road […]
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Read more..Last week we really did not talk a lot about the PAC 12 as we did a podcast on the Big 12 as well as the SEC. This week we are going to add the PAC 12 along with the Big 10 to the mix. The PAC 12 has been up and down the entire year and clearly a difficult conference to handicap. Each week there is a new proclaimed “IT” team or the team that will challenge for a college playoff. In the beginning of the year it was Oregon and USC, then there was talk of Arizona State which quickly died down. Stanford got back into the mix and for a while people were high on Cal, but now they are 2-2 in the conference. Utah was the favorite in the South, but lost big this past week to USC, but still control their own destiny. Point is the PAC 12 is a conference I have been backing out of quite a bit lately, because the oddsmaker’s have been so wrong on the sides it raises a red flag. For instance, Week 1 – Not hard to screw up the lines this early in the season, but […]
Read more..Auburn vs. Arkansas – 4 Overtimes This game was not fun for me to be quite honest and I only watched the first over time before switching on the Penn State game at 3:30. I gave out the under as a premium selection and it was 24-24 at the end of regulation, but I’m still confused with how this game ended in regulation that robbed us on the under. Shawn White fumbled, and Arkansas recovered it, but they over ruled, and I still don’t see how the play is not a fumble, and that’s not just sour grapes I truly feel that was an under. Either way it was a tough loss that we made up later in the day. Outlook – Auburn is a 6 point under dog at home to Ole Miss, which I think they are a decent match up with, because Ole Miss not very good running the ball on the road, but definitely no guarantee that Auburn will stay in that game, but I actually do believe Ole Miss is getting a bit too much credit for their win over A&M which we will get to later, because I clearly was wrong on A&M. Auburn has […]
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Read more..I’m rolling my eyes that two Big 12 teams are in the top 5 in the AP poll and Coaches Poll. However, there are 4 teams out of the Big Ten in the top 25 right now in Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State. There are a lot of bottom feeders in the Big Ten, but these 4 with maybe the exception of Iowa could beat any team in the country. Week 7 had a lot of action starting in the battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy. Michigan State @ Michigan I’m sorry if you had Michigan in a ML parlay and if you had Michigan State on the money line then you were given a gift that I don’t think I have ever seen. This was a crazy game that I leaned to, but after I was so wrong about Northwestern at Michigan the week before I just could not bet it or give it out to clients. I simply wanted to sit back and watch and learn about these two teams. One thing is for both teams can stop the run, Michigan State was not as bad as many thought coming in, but +150 yards was still […]
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Read more..Ole Miss @ Memphis What an upset for Memphis and arguably one of the biggest wins in their history. This also made the AAC look good this past weekend with the upset over an SEC opponent. Memphis defense was probably the most impressive part of this game along with their QB Paxton Lynch who appears to be the real deal. Ole Miss was up and down all day, in all three phases. They were impressive early on offense as they jumped out to a two-score lead behind the passing of Kelly, and a well-executed trick play from wide receiver Laquon Treadwell. Then, Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch and the Tigers started to figure things out on offense. Lynch matched Kelly throw for throw, and then some. In the first half, Lynch completed 19 of his 26 attempts for 191 yards. Of course his two touchdowns were better than the Kelly’s one. Lynch finished the game with 39 completions for 384 yards and three scores. I really like this Memphis coach who stated, “I think there was a moment of realization today,” Fuente said. “My message to the team was, you don’t have to be better than you are. You don’t have to be […]
Read more..I would like to regularly do a bit of a betting recap for each of the games that I give out to clients. I think it’s important to learn from mistakes or recognize bad luck or good luck. In the case of Thursday night and really the past 10 days there has been some unfortunate luck that could dramatically change our performance if we had a little luck, but in reality that’s betting on sports. I know I have some clients today that are not too happy, and why should they be. I’m very unhappy myself, actually could not really enjoy my Mets getting to the NLCS and winning a playoff series for the first time in a decade, because all I could think about was what I gave out to clients and what my clients lost. I know I will win over the long term of the season, but anytime you have a night like that it’s worth going back and looking at where you made mistakes. Auburn vs. Kentucky (30-27) – Our play Kentucky +2.5 On the scoreboard it looks like a bad 1/2 point loss that I should have bought a half point on, but I will […]
Read more..Washington vs. USC Wow, I am going to say I was spot on in this game in my analysis and I gave it as a complimentary selection and even noted they had a chance to win this game outright. Washington was well prepared for the USC offense coming off the bye. Peterson a very good coach for Washington, and I have never been high on Steve Sarkisan. Breaking news from USC is that Sarkisan is now fired. Here is a statement from USC athletic director Pat Haden: “After careful consideration of what is in the best interest of the university and our student-athletes, I have made the decision to terminate Steve Sarkisian, effective immediately. “I want to thank Clay Helton for stepping into the interim head coach role, and I want to add how proud I am of our coaching staff and players and the way they are responding to this difficult situation. “Through all of this we remain concerned for Steve and hope that it will give him the opportunity to focus on his personal well-being.” Outlook perspective – USC goes on the road to play Notre Dame, and they have jumped from a 2 point under dog to […]
Read more..Oklahoma vs. Texas This is why I love college football. The Red River Rivalry is one the biggest if not the biggest rivalry in college football. You have Texas at 1-4 with their coach on the hot seas and you get Oklahoma coming as the #10 team in the land and heavy favorites and they get upset! I am kicking myself for not looking at this game. I was high on Texas the week before they played TCU. After TCU I figured I would not touch them but for Texas they have the talent it seems like an effort thing for me and the win against Oklahoma means a lot to these players I knew they would be giving it their all. Their defense was absolutely dominant which we have not seen this year. Outlook – Oklahoma will face Kansas State at home who is coming off a near upset of TCU and are in the same situation as Oklahoma almost except they were on the other end of the upset. Oklahoma opens up as a 4.5 point favorite, but even if I wanted to bet the Sooners I can’t with Bill Snyder at Kansas State. Texas gets the bye […]
Read more..Georgia vs. Tennessee Okay this game actually really frustrated me. Not because I was on Georgia, okay maybe a little, but Georgia blows a 24-3 lead despite losing their best player Nick Chubb on a grusome injury on the first play of the game. It does not even frustrate me that Georgia dropped a wide open TD pass that would have tied this game and send it to overtime. What bugs me is Georgia could not stinkin tackle. I don’t know how many broken tackles I could count in this game, but they could not tackle Josh Dobbs who weights 207 lbs at 6-3, and had 118 yards on 18 carries. They also couldn’t tackle Jalen Hurd who I at least could understand since he weight 240 lbs, but he was routinely hit at the line of scrimmage and fell forward 4 yards or so. I also can not understand why Butch Jones is celebrating like they won something? Dude you are 3-3 and have all the talent in the world and you finally break through and it’s because Georgia lost their Heisman candidate Nick Chubb on the first play of the game. Lets be honest it’s a completely different […]
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